Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

zenparadox

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Technically, the US never fully made peace with NK. If they send troops to Ukraine, I wonder if they're fair game for US attacks.
Technically right, the best kind etc.
At some point you have to stop the Putins/Hitlers of the world. Its never a good thing for anyone involved, but it must be done.
 
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KD5MDK

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The thing to me about giving North Korea advanced tech in exchange for their munitions and troops is that of all the MICs which hasn't been significantly involved yet, South Korea's has to be one of the bigger ones. If they see a strategic imperative to stop the tech transfer to NK, then helping Ukraine win is in their interest.
If Germany is unwilling to donate Taurus missiles on their own but would agree to an end user transfer, SK can do that.
155mm manufacturing both shells and SPHs? Got it.
SAMs? Building them.
 

pauli

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I forget, does the US have any AGMs that could replicate the Taurus? Maybe something to deliver with the F-16s others are donating? I'm sure we have a bunch of warehouses of EOL missiles that need disposing of.
I believe that JASSM, which we aren't giving Ukraine, is the closest equivalent.

F-16 hasn't really been a primary platform for large air launched cruise missiles in American use - we have F-15s and strategic bombers for a reason.
 
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Hangfire

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It's apparently an engineering unit.
What are the odds of a North Korean engineering unit having any useful equipment?
The original source for this claim is an unnnamed South Korean official here is the transcript from the TV Chosun pay for network news show. TV Chosun is a South Korean pay television network and broadcasting company, owned by the Chosun Ilbo-led consortium.

TV Chosun is one of four new South Korean nationwide generalist cable TV networks alongside JoongAng Ilbo's JTBC, Dong-A Ilbo's Channel A, and Maeil Kyungje's MBN in 2011. The four new networks supplement existing conventional free-to-air TV networks like KBS, MBC, SBS, and other smaller channels launched following deregulation in 1990.


Machine Translated

정부당국 관계자는 "북한이 이르면 다음달 도네츠크에 대규모 공병부대 인력을 파견할 전망"이라며 "전투로 파괴된 도시를 재건하는 목적"이라고 전했습니다.

북한은 '공병군단' 소속 현역장병들을 중동을 비롯한 해외 여러 지역에 파견해왔는데, '남강건설'과 같은 회사 근무로 위장하지만, 철저하게 군 체계로 통제됩니다.

류현우 / 前 쿠웨이트 주재 북한대사 대리

"남강건설회사에 속해있는 모든 군인들이 다 자기 계급을 달고 있었어요. 예를 들면 쿠웨이트 주재 남강건설회사 사장은 대좌(대령)였습니다."

푸틴 대통령과 김정은이 사실상 '자동군사개입'에 가까운 조약을 체결한 뒤 전쟁중인 러시아에 북한의 '파병'이 임박했다는 의미로 해석됩니다.

A government official said, “North Korea is expected to dispatch a large engineering force to Donetsk as early as next month,” adding, “The purpose is to rebuild the city destroyed by battle.”

North Korea has dispatched active-duty soldiers from the 'Engineer Corps' to various overseas regions, including the Middle East. Although they are disguised as working for companies such as 'Namgang Construction', they are thoroughly controlled by the military system.

Ryu Hyun-woo / Former Acting North Korean Ambassador to Kuwait
“All the soldiers belonging to Namgang Construction Company had their own ranks. For example, the president of Namgang Construction Company in Kuwait was a colonel.”

This is interpreted to mean that North Korea's 'dispatch of troops' to Russia, which is at war, is imminent after President Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a treaty that is virtually 'automatic military intervention'.

I cannot authenticate the site but NKNews.org look to be specialist news analysts on NK.
 
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karolus

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Hmm. There's been some volatility in the crypto markets over the past few weeks. Perhaps this would account for some of it. Even aside from that, there's a lot of risk in that asset class to begin with, and it's still a relatively shallow pool. It's going to be a wild ride if Russia does embark on this path.

On a serious note, what does this mean for the ruble?
 

wrylachlan

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Wonder if Russia is going to get rugpulled first or do the rugpull first.
Ukrainian hackers are quite competent. While they likely would not attack international banking systems, should Russia decide to park assets in crypto I think Ukraine would salivate at the prospect of taking them off of Russia’s hands
 

karolus

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Even hacking aside, because crypto is still an evolving market, it's a bit shallow. Major countries with a stake in this conflict could use the powers of their treasuries to inflict some major havoc. Unless Russia is playing some not-yet-demonstrated 5D chess, posting these intents could set the financial wheels in motion against them.
 

karolus

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Is it even a solution? Who’s going to trade billions of dollars worth of oil in BitCoin? It sounds far fetched.
Depends. Russia needs hard currency—so heavily discounts their oil to account for the added hassles of cryptocurrency transactions. That still requires a willing buyer, and then a low-observable way to turn crypto into hard currency. Problem is, transactions can be traced through the blockchain ledger.
 

SandyTech

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Depends. Russia needs hard currency—so heavily discounts their oil to account for the added hassles of cryptocurrency transactions. That still requires a willing buyer, and then a low-observable way to turn crypto into hard currency. Problem is, transactions can be traced through the blockchain ledger.
Which the DOJ has gotten pretty damn good at. And I'd be shocked if the Ukrainian intelligence apparatus couldn't figure it out just as well too.
 

Ladnil

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Hypothetically, if some country or large organization wanted to buy Russian oil using crypto, they'd have to buy a lot of crypto. Since the market is shallow, the price would spike enormously. To investors in the US and around the world, that seems like a pay day, but I also can't imagine a faster way to get crypto trading for real money banned in first world countries. Could be a really interesting legal fight. Coinbase and whatever other "legitimate" exchanges suddenly banned from operating in the US, stranding what looks like billions of dollars in unrealized gains that cannot be easily converted to dollars.
 
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wrylachlan

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Depends. Russia needs hard currency—so heavily discounts their oil to account for the added hassles of cryptocurrency transactions. That still requires a willing buyer, and then a low-observable way to turn crypto into hard currency. Problem is, transactions can be traced through the blockchain ledger.
I’m not sure that selling the oil in BitCoin is the problem. It’s relatively easy to find someone who wants to take hard currency in exchange for BitCoin so the oil buyer should have no problem getting the BitCoin to pay Russia.

But once Russia has the Bitcoin they need to find a way to either a) get the person selling the stuff they want (tech) to accept BitCoin, which is dicey, or b) find someone willing to give them lots and lots of hard currency in exchange for BitCoin. Who trades in BitCoin, has substantial hard currency reserves AND isn’t worried about going to jail for laundering Russian money through sanctions?
 

pauli

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Western alignment continues.


President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on June 26 establishing English as an official language of international communication in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian parliament's website.

The law defines specific positions that require knowledge of English and establishes protocols for using English in various government and public sector offices.

A study conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in March 2023 found that 51% of respondents said they had some knowledge of English, but only 23% said they could read, write, and communicate at everyday levels.

The survey also found that an overwhelming majority (93%) of parents with children under the age of 18 wanted their children to improve their level of English.

Another 51% of parents said their children were learning English in school, and 27% said they were learning in school and had additional time spent outside of school.

Good long term planning to keep society (and future voters) engaged and aware with the rest of the world. It's important to not end up like Hungary - or Russia.
 

Kilkenny

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Speaking of South Korea as your arms maker: did I read recently that when Poland went on their shopping spree, they started receiving hard goods (self-propelled artillery and tanks) within like 3 months?

Speaks to both SKs production capacity, and the power of truly buying off the shelf with Procurement staying out of the way by not adding a bunch of customizations. I'm sure the size of those orders let them cut the backorder line as well, even ahead of SKs domestic orders.
 
Russia moving to crypto to trade oil may work in the favor of their adversaries. What if they work together to depress the value of the cryptoassets Russia is trading in? Economically, it would put Russia is a worse position then they were before.
They don't need to depress the value. They can easily take over the blockchain either to seize the assets or simply destroy it's credibility.

Proof of work cryptocurrencies only work because no one with serious muscles has bothered to attack them. Miners on their way of having more than half the networks compute power have always willingly scaled back to keep the currency viable. What is the hashrate of the combined supercomputers of NATO intelligence services? Proof of stake is even easier to control.
 
Speaking of South Korea as your arms maker: did I read recently that when Poland went on their shopping spree, they started receiving hard goods (self-propelled artillery and tanks) within like 3 months?

Speaks to both SKs production capacity, and the power of truly buying off the shelf with Procurement staying out of the way by not adding a bunch of customizations. I'm sure the size of those orders let them cut the backorder line as well, even ahead of SKs domestic orders.
A pity that they can't give those weapons to Ukraine, or presumably any other future nation in need, as South Korea doesn't allow re-export. Yes, they are taking about maybe changing that now, but that's a response to Russia arming North Korea, not about the security concerns of their customers and presumed allies. If it's stupid to buy weapons from Switzerland, it's equally stupid to do so from South Korea or Israel...
 

Ladnil

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That's very funny about miners approaching 51% willingly scaling back. I hadn't heard that one, and I'm active on /r/buttcoin. Such a hopeless technology once it scaled up beyond hobbyist level.

If it's that easy to attack, I have to assume Russia's not stupid enough to go through with this kind of plan. But if they try it and get crypto killed, hey, net net benefit for humanity.
 
In other news, up to 10_000 newly naturalized Russian citizen are sent to the trenches. Pity it doesn't include Steven Seagal and Tucker Carlson. So with that reinforcement, why does Putin complain no one help Russia?

On the armament department, Israel, USA, and Ukraine are in talk about transferring those 8 unused Israeli Patriot systems. Meanwhile South Korea rebuke Russia for conduct unbecoming of a permanent UN Security Council. Also Russia has lost its last missile launching surface ship.
 

karolus

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In other news, up to 10_000 newly naturalized Russian citizen are sent to the trenches. Pity it doesn't include Steven Seagal and Tucker Carlson. So with that reinforcement, why does Putin complain no one help Russia?

On the armament department, Israel, USA, and Ukraine are in talk about transferring those 8 unused Israeli Patriot systems. Meanwhile South Korea rebuke Russia for conduct unbecoming of a permanent UN Security Council. Also Russia has lost its last missile launching surface ship.
In other words, they felt said ship would be more effective as a submarine.
 
The EU Council has nominated Kaja Kallas as foreign policy chief for the next five years - possibly the biggest hardliner on Russia they could have picked:

Edit: And in other news, it looks like Russia might criminalize women not having children:
"Russian Deputy Minister of Justice Vsevolod Vukolov stated on June 27 that Russian State Duma deputies are preparing a bill to ban the so-called 'child-free' 'ideology,' which Vukolov claimed promotes the 'extremist' idea that women 'do not need to give birth' and 'can do without children.'"
 
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In other news, up to 10_000 newly naturalized Russian citizen are sent to the trenches. Pity it doesn't include Steven Seagal and Tucker Carlson. So with that reinforcement, why does Putin complain no one help Russia?

On the armament department, Israel, USA, and Ukraine are in talk about transferring those 8 unused Israeli Patriot systems. Meanwhile South Korea rebuke Russia for conduct unbecoming of a permanent UN Security Council. Also Russia has lost its last missile launching surface ship.
The last missile carrier on the Crimean peninsula. Russia still has eight missile carriers left in the Black Sea, including five surface ships, they've just been rebased to Novorossiysk.

"According to Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk, the 22800 Karakut class vessel was the last Kalibr equipped Russian missile carrier on the Crimean Peninsula, as the rest had already been transferred to Novorossiysk due to the Ukrainian attacks."


"The defense forces managed to destroy several missile carriers. [...] Eight remain, including three submarines, three Buyan-M MRKs, and two frigates, Essen and Makarov,' he said."
 
A far more horrifying thought came to me. I'm putting this is spoilers since this is just supposition, but it is based on what we know about North Korean prison conditions.

What if the support being sent isn't men, but women? The reports we have from women in NK prisons is that they're places of systematic rape and degradation. I wouldn't put it past NK and Russia to request "comfort women" to get them out of North Korean prisons and provide some kind of depraved morale boost to the front line.

Ugh, I want to go wash my brain for even considering that might be a chance.
No need for NK imports. There have been multiple reports that many Russian women recruited for various auxiliary positions (e.g., medics) are expected to provide sexual services to troops.
https://www.rferl.org/a/women-russian-military-field-wife/32342221.html
 
Right. Once foreign troops are on Ukrainian dirt occupied by Russia, the goalposts for other types of assistance get moved very far.

This would lead to direct involvement by NATO member states in Eastern Europe.
This has already happened (speaking of actual foreign troops, not civilian volunteers or mercenaries).
The Syrian government has sent fighters both from its official militia, the National Defence Forces, as well as 2K regular troops of the Syrian Arab Army, to fight on the Russian side, already 2 years ago.
https://www.syriahr.com/en/285134/

If NATO wants direct involvement, there's no shortage of formal reasons to use.
 
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A far more horrifying thought came to me. I'm putting this is spoilers since this is just supposition, but it is based on what we know about North Korean prison conditions.

What if the support being sent isn't men, but women? The reports we have from women in NK prisons is that they're places of systematic rape and degradation. I wouldn't put it past NK and Russia to request "comfort women" to get them out of North Korean prisons and provide some kind of depraved morale boost to the front line.

Ugh, I want to go wash my brain for even considering that might be a chance.
I did a report on the cold war in high school and remember from research that the Soviet navy had prostitutes onboard the resupply ships for their submarine fleets. They had to find ways to keep the men happy with being on long patrols. I would not be surprised if they still did things similar to that today.
 

KGFish

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Took 2 years, but apparently Russia finally got one M-270 MLRS destroyed. Possibly also its resupply depo. Link to the warzone article.
Important thing to keep in mind - there's a cut between the M-270 driving in and the hit by the Iskander. Doesn't mean the M-270 definitely drove out, but it's something to keep track of when assessing what happened. Finally, for a resupply depot, there are very few secondaries. May have just been a hiding place.

Still, at a bare minimum, it shows the fast kill-loop the Russians developed. They have good surveillance near the front, a fast tasking of a significant strategic resource, and an on-target hit. If they didn't get the M270 this time, they'll get one later. Unless Ukraine picks up its anti-drone work....
 

slowtech

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Important thing to keep in mind - there's a cut between the M-270 driving in and the hit by the Iskander. Doesn't mean the M-270 definitely drove out, but it's something to keep track of when assessing what happened. Finally, for a resupply depot, there are very few secondaries. May have just been a hiding place.

Still, at a bare minimum, it shows the fast kill-loop the Russians developed. They have good surveillance near the front, a fast tasking of a significant strategic resource, and an on-target hit. If they didn't get the M270 this time, they'll get one later. Unless Ukraine picks up its anti-drone work....
Denys Davydov on YouTube speculates that the Russians have informants in the Ukrainian armed forces, even pretty high up.