Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.
- Thread starter Made in Hurry
- Start date
The EU officially started membership negotiations with Ukraine today.
It is a in many ways symbolic act in the near term, because it is exceedingly unlikely that negotiations will conclude before at least some sort of armstice if not peace treaty are concerned; for starters an Ukraine formally joining the EU while at way would also certainly turn at least some of the cold conflict between the EU and Russia into a hot one.
But, just like Ukraine becoming a candidate in 2022 making available certain funding mechanisms, it is not only symbolic. It'll also unlock further funds, and the negotiation processes where Ukrainian law will be brought into compatibility with EU law will help Ukraine pass and enforce laws in service of things like cracking down on corruption.
It is a in many ways symbolic act in the near term, because it is exceedingly unlikely that negotiations will conclude before at least some sort of armstice if not peace treaty are concerned; for starters an Ukraine formally joining the EU while at way would also certainly turn at least some of the cold conflict between the EU and Russia into a hot one.
But, just like Ukraine becoming a candidate in 2022 making available certain funding mechanisms, it is not only symbolic. It'll also unlock further funds, and the negotiation processes where Ukrainian law will be brought into compatibility with EU law will help Ukraine pass and enforce laws in service of things like cracking down on corruption.
Ukraine will likely face pressure from USA to have peace talk with Russia if Trump win the election. The article is a bit short on detail, I would assume the plan will basically freeze the current battle lines.
I know this is preaching to the choir, but I hate how effective this rhetoric is going to be if Trump wins.
"I bought peace in Ukraine! (at the expense of giving up all territory Russia conquered and neutering any future protection for Ukraine for when Russia feels like finishing the job)" And people will just eat it up, like giving up somebody else's fight on their behalf makes him a strong negotiator or something.
And a few years later when pro-Russia factions don't control the White House anymore, Russian aggression begins again bolstered by the war economy and lifted sanctions they enjoyed in Trump's term.
The incentives for Putin at this point are to create problems in the world when oppositional politicians are in power, and rearm when friendly ones are. Because the world doesn't have the combination of foresight and backbone required to stop him here.
The only way to counter that if you’re anti-Russia is to be absolutely ruthless with rapid escalation when Russia starts shit. Those however many hundred distinct sanctions that we rolled out over two and a half years and then Trump rolled back? They all land on day one. Those arms we dribbled in over two and a half years? That same amount is on its way day one.
I’m exaggerating because there’s obviously logistics to be considered, but you get the basic idea. Go hard and fast and don’t lose sleep over Russian escalation.
——
That said, if Trump stops sending equipment to Ukraine it will be go time for Europe. I’m cautiously optimistic that Europe is up to the task.
Maybe we should look into the Trisolarans’ dehydration technology.
(3 Body Problem reference for those unaware)
The US might be allowing US military contractors to deploy to Ukraine soon. Time for some little green men in F-16 cockpits? More realistically, it sounds like it will be aimed at support and maintenance.
And NK is going to assist Russia in Donetsk:
www.kyivpost.com
We're lurching towards a major conflict.
Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month
The June 19 defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea included a promise to provide military assistance to one another – within days Pyongyang said it was sending troops to Ukraine.
www.kyivpost.com
We're lurching towards a major conflict.
Right. Once foreign troops are on Ukrainian dirt occupied by Russia, the goalposts for other types of assistance get moved very far.
This would lead to direct involvement by NATO member states in Eastern Europe.
This would lead to direct involvement by NATO member states in Eastern Europe.
What is suddenly prompting all this foreign involvement? Once this happens, all bets are off as to the repercussions. NATO-aligned nations will have the military advantage, but the secondary effects in the markets will be interesting, to say the least. It could lead to a major global realignment—something that probably wasn't expected when this misadventure was kicked off.
I am not sure if it will be only Eastern Europe. The urgency i wrote about above is starting to get visible, so i am sure this is something NATO has been aware of for some time already. I start to see why Macron talked about troops.
I sit with a feeling that NATO really is trying to be patient, but probably is waking up to the fact that they now must get involved with people on the ground in some way.
The choice of Mark Rutte as the new secretary general of NATO, with a masters degree in history isn't a bad choice either, although i know nothing about his views in general, so maybe the box can help.
The bad feeling i had before just got worse, this is going to escalate fast.
I personally think the first declaration will be from Macron saying French troops allocated for Ukraine defense may now be moved closer to the front.
Is Russia starting to run critically low on Soviet-era mothballed equipment and/or vaguely-draft-age men in the provinces?
This may come as a surprise for some, but it's probably best not to take the North Korean government at its word. Let's wait and see what shows up.And NK is going to assist Russia in Donetsk:
Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month
The June 19 defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea included a promise to provide military assistance to one another – within days Pyongyang said it was sending troops to Ukraine.
We're lurching towards a major conflict.
On one hand, very reactive to attempts by foreign nations to subvert Dutch democracy (like when a certain Mediterranean country discovered when they tried to organise an illegal election rally within the Netherlands), on the other, major issues with leaky memory regarding scandals.
Can't be, Russia has too large a population for that - unless the actual number of dead on Russia's side literally dwarves the official figures.
On the other hand, Russia is always happy to use other people's lives when it can do so cheaply. If this is a real deal with NK, one can be sure it's something like suggested above. A way to clear out NK's prisons to their mutual benefit.
I suspect that North Korea, home of "life in prison - for your whole family", also home of working prisoners to death in concentration camps, is unlikely to let any of their victims, even those convicted of actual crimes, out of direct line of sight. Most of them are probably physically incapable of service, anyway.
If they send anyone, it's apt to be those who are the most compromised and are most capable of bringing home first hand data and experience dealing with Western weapon systems.
They could send artillery units for live fire practice under adverse conditions, but then someone has to keep them from escaping.
Technically speaking, the US is still at war with NK ... just saying.
Edit to add some substance:
taken from here: https://web.archive.org/web/2014030...indlaw.com/cnn/docs/korea/kwarmagr072753.html
Last edited:
Depends on Kim's goal. I wouldn't expect more than a very token amount. Could be fairly well presented troops if Kim is dangling the prospect of more for a lot more Russian oil and gas energy shipments. They may also be worried about defection.
OTOH, convicts all the way if they're just trying to get rid of folks and don't really care what Putin thinks of the quality, as long as he gets his bodies for human wave attacks.
the armistice said:
The Cease Fire only applies in Korea, including the areas in the sea and islands around it, as I read it.
Integrating Korean troops into a Russian offensive would be a logistical nightmare and a huge distraction. It would be great if Russia tried because that would be an incredible opportunity for Ukraine to put Russia in a world of hurt.
Not really material when Biden has to pledge that no US troops will go to Ukraine due to rampant US isolationism.
Yeah, untill November nothing will happen on this front. But it sure makes for same nice backroom threats for credible retaliation by the US. And after november, the cards will be reshuffled anyway. Either in a good way, or a horrible one.
Extremely unlikely to happen for the obvious political reasons, but it's technically possible (as I read the armistice) that US assets outside of Ukraine could attack North Korean assets if they end up in Ukraine, with a cruise missile or something.
Will anyone the NK's send be of any real help to the Russian's? I wonder if the NK "troops" will be trading their weapon for food.
NK needs food bad. Filling balloons with shit, firing off some missiles and artillery at random places in SK is not the same when the others can and will fire back.
Boy Kim is winning this one. He gets rid of a bunch of crap (humans and weapons) and gets food and nuclear missile tech.
Putin gets, hahahhaha.
NK needs food bad. Filling balloons with shit, firing off some missiles and artillery at random places in SK is not the same when the others can and will fire back.
Boy Kim is winning this one. He gets rid of a bunch of crap (humans and weapons) and gets food and nuclear missile tech.
Putin gets, hahahhaha.
It's apparently an engineering unit.
kyivindependent.com
What are the odds of a North Korean engineering unit having any useful equipment?
North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' Pentagon says
"I think that if I were North Korean military personnel management, I would be questioning my choices on sending my forces to be cannon fodder in an illegal war against Ukraine."
kyivindependent.com
Cannon fodder? That is putting it nicely. Mobile bullet and schrapnel sponges is a more apt description.It's apparently an engineering unit.
What are the odds of a North Korean engineering unit having any useful equipment?North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' Pentagon says
"I think that if I were North Korean military personnel management, I would be questioning my choices on sending my forces to be cannon fodder in an illegal war against Ukraine."
Probably there to nurse all their lousy weapons into working order.
How hard is it to give them broken rifles and say "storm that emplacement" while not explicitly saying "to soak up their ammunition before we try anything"? Human waves attacks aren't exactly foreign to NK's military doctrinal history.
Even those meat waves need to eat. They need to get to the front on vehicles that require fuel and maintenance. They need to be barracked somewhere until the meat wave is ready. They’ve never seen drones before so they need to be taught how not to give away valuable opsec while at base or on maneuvers. They need to be able to tell friend from foe or they’re going to get turned around and start shooting Russians (which would be a delicious irony).
And you need to keep a damn close eye on them in case they go rogue and start fragging commanders and defecting. Maybe the military is different but when I was in Senegal the North Koreans were building the ‘Statue of the African Renaissance’ in Dakar (it’s a long story.) For every 2-3 actual construction workers there was a minder to make sure they didn’t defect. And those minders had their own minders. Thats not something you do if you have strong confidence that you’ve successfully brainwashed your people.
I also think this is an awful risk for Pyongyang for the same reason it’s turned out to be so bad for Russia - the paper tiger could be revealed. If you had asked anyone that wasn’t deeply into strategic analysis of Russia how strong their military was in 2021 you’d get a very very different answer than today. Russia has been exposed. Does Pyongyang really want their soldiers used as meatwaves, demonstrating to Seoul just how ineffective they can be?
I’d argue that if Pyongyang is sending soldiers it’s going to be on the long range artillery/ engineering side of things far away from the front lines. And even so it’s probably a bad idea for Russia.
It's apparently an engineering unit.
What are the odds of a North Korean engineering unit having any useful equipment?North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' Pentagon says
"I think that if I were North Korean military personnel management, I would be questioning my choices on sending my forces to be cannon fodder in an illegal war against Ukraine."
Depends on the engineering. North Koreans can dig tunnels like you wouldn't believe.
Any NK soliders sent are on a one way trip. They will never get back to North Korea. And it will never be acknowledged, in North Korea, that they were in Russia. They will die there and if the families back home are stupid enough to ask "Where is my dad?" they will be either sent to find out, or sent to prison for life.
As someone upstream said, Russia isn't afraid of using non-Russian's as meat wave attack victims. And Russia's definition of Russian would be somewhat "From West of Ural's, but not as far as Ukraine". Everyone else is a vassal, not genuine Russian, and they can stop bullets. It's all they are good for.
As someone upstream said, Russia isn't afraid of using non-Russian's as meat wave attack victims. And Russia's definition of Russian would be somewhat "From West of Ural's, but not as far as Ukraine". Everyone else is a vassal, not genuine Russian, and they can stop bullets. It's all they are good for.
A far more horrifying thought came to me. I'm putting this is spoilers since this is just supposition, but it is based on what we know about North Korean prison conditions.
What if the support being sent isn't men, but women? The reports we have from women in NK prisons is that they're places of systematic rape and degradation. I wouldn't put it past NK and Russia to request "comfort women" to get them out of North Korean prisons and provide some kind of depraved morale boost to the front line.
Ugh, I want to go wash my brain for even considering that might be a chance.
Ugh, I want to go wash my brain for even considering that might be a chance.