June 27th US Presidential Debate Watch-Along

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He looks and sounds completely different today. Either they found the missing super-soldier drugs, or he's recovered from an illness.
Yes. Unfortunately for all of us, being lucid, alert, and engaged at a political rally (an event attended almost unanimously by sympathetic partisans) is perhaps the least valuable venue on the face of the planet for Biden to have figured out how to be that way. Outdone arguably only by being that way while alone on the toilet.
 

karolus

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I will say Biden's performance today at a campaign rally in NC was really very good! Where the hell was that energy and charisma last night??? If he had handled the debate with that same emotion, we would all be talking about how Trump is cooked. He can turn it around, but it's going to be very uphill.
Perhaps the writers of this script didn't want to present us with a boring good triumphing over evil, but instead a nailbiting cliffhanger.
 

Justin Credible

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I will say Biden's performance today at a campaign rally in NC was really very good! Where the hell was that energy and charisma last night??? If he had handled the debate with that same emotion, we would all be talking about how Trump is cooked. He can turn it around, but it's going to be very uphill.

Tbh i think Biden was on something today at his rally. Legal like a shot of B12 or whatever along those lines. I sus that if Biden went into last night like he was today trump would accuse him of being "on drugs" legal or otherwise and really run with it, questions be damned.
 

Lt_Storm

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Perhaps the writers of this script didn't want to present us with a boring good triumphing over evil, but instead a nailbiting cliffhanger.
Well, reality did jump the shark in 2016, so I suppose that keeping the divine court entertained is ever more difficult....
 

Shavano

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Here's the thing, he was back to his normal energetic and on top of things self today. Which tells me yesterday was an aberration.

I'm speculating he was given some kind of drugs for his cold and it had nasty side effects. I've had those side effects from the wrong cold meds.
Thanks. Get it now—as @breze points out, 538 uses a probability, not margin model. It may also explain the general public shock at the results, since they were expecting margins.

If we were modeling life-critical applications, for example, 30% would be unacceptably high.
We are.
Also, one really frustrating bit: Trump hardly made a true statement throughout, but, now, rather than talking about how Trump is a lying liar who lies, the conversation is still going to be about Biden's pro performance. Because that's apparently what balance means in news coverage these days, ten articles about Biden's poor performance for every one about Trump's performance which was realistically no better.
For those that care about the truth, sure. But the public doesn't care about the truth. Most of them rank feels and impressions over honesty and reliability, probably because they're unable to assess honesty and reliability. That's the realization that makes Trump act like he does, and he's brought his whole party over to operating that mode. But he wasn't the first to realize it. It's an insight that comes from advertising and psychology.
 

Lt_Storm

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For those that care about the truth, sure. But the public doesn't care about the truth. Most of them rank feels and impressions over honesty and reliability, probably because they're unable to assess honesty and reliability. That's the realization that makes Trump act like he does, and he's brought his whole party over to operating that mode. But he wasn't the first to realize it. It's an insight that comes from advertising and psychology.
I mean, sure, there is some of that going on, a least presuming that people like the rank feels of greasy car salesman*. But, I don't think that's all there is to it. I honestly think we have serious problems with how the media approaches things like context that only serve to exarate that kind of trend.

* A feel so clean that Trump can, realistically, only aspire to it.
 
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