He would be seething, but at his aides who didn't teach him about correct local protocol. The Russians are used to the most important people of the meeting entering last (also how it's done in e.g. Europe and the US). North Korea apparently does things the opposite way.
Sprawling Russian Thread
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The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
The question is where they're headed. There were those joint US training drills earlier in the year, but that wasn't much. It's only a token showing until real hardware starts getting slung around. Azerbaijan wants "their" satellite territory no one recognizes. They want a land bridge to Turkey for a direct pipeline. Ankara wants that sweet, sweet Baku oil and a foil sitting right over the border from Iran. They also are rumored to not think positively of Armenia, no clue what that's about*. We start getting in on the game, you could see two NATO members fueling and funding both sides of a conflict.
*please tell me I don't need the /s
US Navy "monitoring" Russian warships in sight of Miami
American and Canadian warships are tracking a Russian submarine as it travels along the Florida coast, the U.S. Navy has said.
www.newsweek.com
No clear reason given. If the goal was to sneak the sub somewhere without anyone noticing, they, uh, aren't succeeding.
x.com
x.com
Subtle signaling by the US Navy, this is not.
This is why pilots practice drawing shapes on maps with their routes, right?US Navy "monitoring" Russian warships in sight of Miami
American and Canadian warships are tracking a Russian submarine as it travels along the Florida coast, the U.S. Navy has said.
No clear reason given. If the goal was to sneak the sub somewhere without anyone noticing, they, uh, aren't succeeding.
x.com
Subtle signaling by the US Navy, this is not.
Sure, it sometimes makes the news and someone gets a a finger wagged at them while their Admiral holds back a grin. But it is a tradition of the Cold War that it has paid off to keep around against the complaints.
Just a quick stop-off at Mar-a-Lago for lunch.US Navy "monitoring" Russian warships in sight of Miami
American and Canadian warships are tracking a Russian submarine as it travels along the Florida coast, the U.S. Navy has said.
No clear reason given. If the goal was to sneak the sub somewhere without anyone noticing, they, uh, aren't succeeding.
x.com
Subtle signaling by the US Navy, this is not.
This is why pilots practice drawing shapes on maps with their routes, right?
Kind of disappointed I see no "Slawa Ukraini"-like flight path; I blame the decline of cursive writing required to write that (well, sans the dots) with an aircraft flight path.
What about rewiring sonobuoys to play the Ukrainian national anthem and dropping them over the sub for its entire journey home?Kind of disappointed I see no "Slawa Ukraini"-like flight path; I blame the decline of cursive writing required to write that (well, sans the dots) with an aircraft flight path.
Perhaps mixed with "Elore budai sracok" (aka Pingitore's "Avanti ragazzi di Buda"/"Forward, youth of Buda" commemorating the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. Also, an example of stopped clocks being right occasionally, with both Orban and various right-wing Italian Ultras liking it), Karel Kryl's "Bratricku, zavirej vratka" ("Close the Gate, Litttle Brother", Prague Spring) and Shostakovich's #5 and #7 (the irony that Stalin initially thought them to be pro-Stalin is just too delicious).
It is a long way home.
Maybe throw in a couple readings of the Petrapavlovsk Resolution (the Kronstadt Rebellion's demands) in for good measure. Or "Hymn to Red October"; the movie is, after all, about a submarine defecting to the United States.
Arno Klarsfeld is a joke. He's been on a path of self destruction for some time, several substances abuse I guess.
Now they want to talk, but with conditions? After being the chaotic agent?
Russia tells US: we need to talk, but Ukraine must be on agenda
Russia tells US: we need to talk, but Ukraine must be on agenda
Wow, Russia must be in worse shape than they look - and that's pretty bad already.
If Ukraine continues to have success damaging Russia’s petroleum industry, they will be in a world of economic hurt. That’s a significant part of their hard currency. Although they have other significant natural resources, none other will be as easy to convert to needed cash. Also, due to the aggression shown toward Ukraine, other European nations have wised up, and are moving towards alternative energy sources at an increasing clip—leaving dwindling opportunities to return to pre-war conditions. Russia’s largest nemesis at this point may not be military in nature—but the invisible hand—ironically hastened by their military blunders.
Unfortunately, Russia's main income is from crude, not refined products, and Ukraine has so far mainly limited itself to strikes on refineries, possibly to not increase oil prices and annoy the US. Perhaps after November...
Hitting the refineries directly impacts Russia's ability to fuel its war machine. If Russia were buying refined fuel on the open market, they either couldn't get enough, or it would pauper them at whatever above-retail prices the could get it at. Since they have to jump through hoops right now to get revenue from crude, it's very likely the refineries are the much better (literal) bang for the buck when it comes to the war effort.
Plus refineries are much more complex than wells, pipelines, and terminals. Even without the war and sanctions they would be more expensive and time consuming to repair, and with sanctions at a minimum repairing them occupies limited advanced industrial capacity.
That's a very good point. Most of the expertise that came for building those was from a Chevron contract, if I recall. Which means those people are not available to Russia at an price with the sanctions.
Russia came up in one of my business negotiations the other day. As a matter of policy, my company will not provide any software, data, or services to any person or entity in Russia. This is beyond the sanctions requirements. The explanation is that it simplifies compliance with sanctions that other countries have slightly different from those of the US.
Any large multinational probably does the same to prevent inadvertent violation of some sanctions law somewhere.
Any large multinational probably does the same to prevent inadvertent violation of some sanctions law somewhere.
I can say with 100% confidence that oil and gas companies are not the kind to be shy from working with places where they have to be careful with sanctions. (One of my global construction clients also did blanket bans for simplicity as well.)
But that is a clear "falls under sanctions" wall as well.
If Russia wants to talk to the US about their plans to demine southeastern Ukraine and withdraw to within internationally recognized borders, sure. If it's anything else, what's to talk about?
Reinterpreting the succession of treaty privileges and obligations following collapse of the Soviet Union, such that all former constituents, including Ukraine, share the UNSC permanent seat accorded to the USSR (as well as sharing commitments under arms control treaties and whatnot)
I have argued from nearly the beginning of the the Ukraine war that one of the other Security Council members should pressure China in to formally recognizing Ukraine as the inheritor of the Security Council seat the USSR held. Why China? Because structurally, the CCP holds a position far closer to Ukraine's government than Russia's when it comes to who inherited what from the old empires, and the US could otherwise trivially assert that the government of Taiwan are the real signatories that deserve to be on the Security Council.
Not seen that argument before but it’s an interesting one. Any more links, either to yourself or other articles arguing Ukraine should hold Russia’s UN seat, and that China should support them?
You can find opinion pieces arguing for it as well: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/07/russia-ukraine-united-nations-zelensky-right/
There's more saying Russia should just be booted. Some of those use the same logic, that Russia is not the Soviet Union, as as such, they could be removed.
Thanks, paywalled but I can see the title, which is enough.
Would be interesting to see Taiwan inform China that unless China starts applying the CCP’s position to Ukraine and begins advocating for Ukraine to take the seat, Taiwan will adopt Russia’s position and themselves apply for China’s UN seat.
I presume Taiwan itself has little to no interest in actually applying for a UN SC seat. - this would more be a way of Taiwan embarrassing China and supporting Ukraine.
One of the wilder interpretations of international law, but stranger things have happened.
Realistically, China won’t go for it. They really don’t want another G7 seat going to the EU. Also Taiwan doesn’t want to play silly games with their own future or poke the bear (or provoke a backlash from a possible President Trump).
Doesn't sound likely with China backing Russia's position on the war and depending on them for oil.
Russia and China vote together quite a lot on the UNSC. The idea that they would support handing Russia's vote to Ukraine is a silly fantasy, no matter how you tried to tie it to Taiwan. You're not going to logic and law someone into taking action against their own interests in international law. You just aren't.
I see it as quite the opposite, actually. If you were to get the larger UN assembly to agree to the tactic*, you have a powerful chunk of Realpolitik to use against the PRC. Support Ukraine as the heir to the USSR's seat on the Council, or lose face by losing yours as invalid for the same reason.
That said, I don't think the West (and specifically the US) is willing to play that hard, but the process of divestment and de-globalization going on right now at least makes it a practical threat for the future.
*Big "if", of course. But the shine has come off China's efforts to buy favor with poorer nations, and I don't think they would be quite so quick to back China on such a power play.
The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
You're also hitting a refinery, which burns once. Hit a well and it burns until you cap it, and you start getting hellish pictures like Desert Storm. Bad PR -- "Look at what Ukraine is doing to the environment! What barbarians!" Not that you won't already, it's just easier to fend them away when a cracking tower goes poof.
More importantly, a well isn't strategic. A refinery is infrastructure that's critical to the war machine.
Russian soldiers returning home are sending crime higher, and a bigger wave could be on the way that hits the economy
A postwar surge in crime may cost Russia as much as 0.6% of its gross-domestic product, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Article about the interrelation of war and domestic crime - war does lower crime, for a while. On the other hand, it turns out that recruiting and ultimately releasing people who were in prison for a reason has consequences.
Delightful. Also, something that hasn't been mentioned - they're short on cops, at a time when they just might be useful.
Have the cannibals do the policing.Russian soldiers returning home are sending crime higher, and a bigger wave could be on the way that hits the economy
A postwar surge in crime may cost Russia as much as 0.6% of its gross-domestic product, according to Bloomberg Economics.fortune.com
Article about the interrelation of war and domestic crime - war does lower crime, for a while. On the other hand, it turns out that recruiting and ultimately releasing people who were in prison for a reason has consequences.
Delightful. Also, something that hasn't been mentioned - they're short on cops, at a time when they just might be useful.
Take a Bite Out of Crime.
"To protect and serve" gets a whole new meaning.
Putin replaces head of spy agency behind decision to invade Ukraine—Report
The Russian president reportedly relied on intelligence from the FSB's fifth directorate when he launched his invasion of Ukraine.
www.newsweek.com
Internal FSB factional politics, though taking over two years to push out an incompetent old man seems... uncharacteristic.
They have an appetite for justice, if you can stomach their methods.
Who didn't see this coming?
He must be well connected to be pushed out years later, and yet not pushed out a window.Putin replaces head of spy agency behind decision to invade Ukraine—Report
The Russian president reportedly relied on intelligence from the FSB's fifth directorate when he launched his invasion of Ukraine.
Internal FSB factional politics, though taking over two years to push out an incompetent old man seems... uncharacteristic.
The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Maybe he'll have a nice visit over tea? Receive some new undies? I'd avoid doorknobs and bridges.
So, things to avoid in Russia to live a long life:
- doorknobs
- bridges and other high places
- windows
- airplanes
- tea
- underwear
- special agents
- cars
- drones
- ex-soldiers/-prisoners
- gulags
- politics, especially opposition politics
- toxins
- fires
- cigarettes
- factories producing military goods
- flagships on the Black Sea
- moving abroad in an attempt to avoid everything else on the list after getting on Putin's personal shitlist
Anything else?