I disagree with that last part. You need to tell them what you think, and what they should think. Because we're talking about low information voters. Asking them what they think only ends in frustration because they barely know, and they're persuadable.
The 2024 Presidential Election - Oops, We Did It Again
- Thread starter monsterscraponme
- Start date
When was the last time a strong primary against an incumbent President ended well for that party?
There's a pretty good argument to be made she was the strongest candidate in the race (for a national election with many months of prep), and what happened in NH (more than doubled support in a week, clobbered others in debates, won literally all of the early newspaper endorsements...) supports this. But we're veering off topic here, and U-99's not around anymore to add some humor to this discussionKlobuchar?
.Never that I know of. The only way it makes sense is if you think the incumbent is going to lose the general anyway, and you think upstarts can beat him in the primary (ideally early in the primary). In this case, what I was getting at is that the party could've tried to convince Biden not to run, by telling him it was going to be a rocky road, and perhaps rupture the party if he did.
But your point is absolutely right: Once Biden decided he was going to run again, party leadership didn't have great options.
Biden had strong donations right after the debate (this is public information, people are reporting on it already).
Every venue that matters seems to show that Biden's debate performance didn't harm his campaign anywhere near as much as Trump performance hurt himself.
The campaign also claimed to have raised $14 million in the first 24 hours after the debate ...
Based on how I saw him handle media appearances, I thinkThere's a pretty good argument to be made she was the strongest candidate in the race (for a national election with many months of prep), and what happened in NH (more than doubled support in a week, clobbered others in debates, won literally all of the early newspaper endorsements...) supports this. But we're veering off topic here, and U-99's not around anymore to add some humor to this discussion
The electorate was more tolerant of LGBTQ even 4 years ago.
And the far left DESPISE Buttigieg, because he dared to go against Bernie in 2020.
And the far left DESPISE Buttigieg, because he dared to go against Bernie in 2020.
Pete was good, no doubt. I still think if Pete OR Amy (and not Pete AND Amy) had run in 2020, that that person would've won the nomination. With both of them in there, there was too much splitting of the middle lane for party leadership to do anything but consolidate around Biden.
And I also think Amy would've fared better against Trump. She's sharp on her feet, great debater, and has a wealth of experience (most impactful Senator on the hill vs mayor of a medium sized city) in how things work in DC to draw from. And being out-debated by a woman would've really gotten under Trump's skin. But we should get back to present-day reality...
Democratic voters do not want Biden 2024. They want somebody else. They want the chaos and disruption (and opportunity and excitement) of picking a new nominee. What was once a muted cry is now a full-throttled scream ringing so loudly across the land that even newspaper editorial boards can't ignore it. I'm really pretty shocked at how many people in this thread are trying to ignore it. Ignore your own voters at your peril. Ignore the reality right in front of your eyes (on Thursday evening) at your peril.
Fucking STOP THAT. You keep projecting your opinion as though this is some majority of the voters. It isn't. Stop presenting it as though it is. Stop PRETENDING like it is.
You're hearing LOUD voices, not pluralities/majorities, and you're choosing to believe that they represent the plurality or majority. But you're stuck in an information bubble that's almost as bad as Fox News, and don't realize it.
This, quite simply, isn't how an incumbent election is run. After all, an incumbent election is ultimately a reference on the guy in charge, and you don't typically win such a thing from the starting point that someone else should be in the hot seat. That's sort of self defeating: "Biden did such a good job that we are going to replace him, you want more of what we evidently believe to be a good job right?"
The published polls show this (https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/biden-trump-debate-poll-june-2024, readable writeup: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-democrat-candidate-replacement-poll), the rapid polling after the debate showed this, every single conversation I've with democrats in real life or via text/emal shows this, the top rated comments on threads on this topic (eg on NY Times editorial page) consistently show this etc etc etc. We Democrats have been conditioned to have a knee-jerk response to support our existing candidate, especially in the Trump era when there's an existential threat. Despite that, the chorus for change here is overwhelming. As I said, deny it at your peril. The evidence is all around you.
I'd like to see more than "rapid polling" in the form of a post-debate survey, myself, and even by that only (large) a minority of Democrats want him replaced. The very first bullet point:
WHO?
Read this thread, two of the strongest advocates for Biden stepping down can't agree on who's the best candidate to replace him. And if Biden stepped down, he's absolutely going to throw his weight behind Harris.
So now we've got three people at least, and a month to figure it out.
All because of one bad debate.
Your evidence is all around you, because you're in an echo chamber. You're listening to pundits and polls (and I think by now you know what I think about polls), people whose job it is to keep this exciting so that they keep getting paid.
Seriously. You're in an echo chamber, and because you agree with it, you don't stop and look at other things that have happened. Hispanic voters coming out for Biden because of the debate. Obama has said that staying the course is the best strategy. That's also supported by some of the very people you want to replace him with - Buttigieg and Newsom have both spoken out in support of Biden. So has Gov. Wes Moore, one of the names occasionally floated as a Biden replacement. Donors have poured millions in support for Biden since the debate.
You're talking about one bad night being worth flipping the table and starting over nearly from scratch, with less than a quarter of the usual time. And this sounds like a good idea for you. Go out and touch grass. You're getting hysterical.
Want other things outside of your panic bubble? Try This. Or This. Or This. Or even This. I know they're not your normal pundits and polls... but maybe they should be on your watch list anyway.
Seriously. You're in an echo chamber, and because you agree with it, you don't stop and look at other things that have happened. Hispanic voters coming out for Biden because of the debate. Obama has said that staying the course is the best strategy. That's also supported by some of the very people you want to replace him with - Buttigieg and Newsom have both spoken out in support of Biden. So has Gov. Wes Moore, one of the names occasionally floated as a Biden replacement. Donors have poured millions in support for Biden since the debate.
You're talking about one bad night being worth flipping the table and starting over nearly from scratch, with less than a quarter of the usual time. And this sounds like a good idea for you. Go out and touch grass. You're getting hysterical.
Want other things outside of your panic bubble? Try This. Or This. Or This. Or even This. I know they're not your normal pundits and polls... but maybe they should be on your watch list anyway.
And I've seen some polling that says that Biden surged ahead of Trump post-debate, including 538. Which should we believe?
How about none of them? Stop listening to polls.
Edit: You know that polls before 2020 said the same thing, right? "We want someone other than Biden" was a constant roar in the electoral audience for much of the Trump presidency. And yet, when it came time to actually pick someone, the only person that everyone agreed on - the only "second choice" for the majority of the D populace, if you want to think of it that way - was Biden.
also THIS IS A CAMPAIGN. You don't run a successful campaign by listening to polls to find out what people think and doing that. You tell them what to think. You tell them why you're the best choice, or at least the best choice on offer, that has a chance of winning.
We're WAY past the last point at which you should be asking voters what they think.
thats literally exactly what they do though. What do Trump or Biden campaign on that wasn't already popular according to polls?
I'm aware of the polls to this effect. They add next to nothing to this discussion.
You could run a poll, "Is X your favorite Democrat," and be pretty much assured that NO ONE could get a majority.
Heck, Bernie ran for the primary in 2020 and never scored a majority. That suggests he would fare similarly to Biden in such anpoll. Does that mean we should write off him and others in his mold?
An argument that pulls this metric against Biden is going to fall flat unless it's going to point to someone who performs better. That's something I have yet to see.
That's up to the people to decide (edit: technically the delegates, informed by the people's view). What the party needs to decide is the 4-6 candidates to put forward, because a 6 week process doesn't have room for much more than that.
Why? She doesn't have anything to do with the primary process. She wasn't a candidate, she doesn't have any delegates (just like everybody else). In fact she's never won a single delegate in any primary. [Even if Biden stayed in the race he could announce a new VP for his ticket tomorrow, or any date up until the convention in August.]
If he decides to try to anoint any candidate, it's a huge political mistake. Democratic (and Independent) voters are tired and frustrated about not having any choices, and trying to force one on them here (yet again) will indeed make things worse. And doing it when you've just announced you're no longer the best person to make future decisions doesn't help.
For what my anecdotal evidence is worth (nothing) most of the people I know who are STILL voting for Biden agree he should step down. These are folks who had a Biden sign in their yard last time. After his debate 'performance' last night, I wouldn't hire Biden to be an Uber Eats driver. Would you?
Unfortunately at this point I believe Biden is not going to step down, will easily lose to Trump, and America will get what they asked for.
Unfortunately at this point I believe Biden is not going to step down, will easily lose to Trump, and America will get what they asked for.
Yup, same here. Certainly would not get into any vehicle that he was driving.
I mean, I understand the cynicism, but what I don't understand is all the people who don't seem to think we should try like hell to fix this, get a new nominee, and win big in November.
That's an idealistic perspective, but not one I completely recommend.
That's not to say one should just mime polls. However, polls can tell you where you are falling flat so you can dig deeper and look for ways to improve your messaging, and where you need to focus it.
Also, there are going to be times to hang up a campaign. That's rarely in a general election, but I would never say never. There may be time a candidate can't be changed, but you can shift money to races with more viable candidates.
It's hard to imagine getting to that point with Trump running, but if Biden got to the point where he was polling worse than generic Democrat (or Harris in particular), then I'd like to imagine he would at least consider ways to step back.
I would be surprised if we got to the point where that made sense, but it warrants much more serious thought than it did a couple days ago.
I should also note that there's a large strain of "I'd vote for an inanimate object before I vote Trump" at play among hardcore Blue voters, so it's not like the party would lose ANY votes if they were to sub in someone 20 to 40 years younger as the Presidential candidate.
Still waiting for the concern trolls to name a candidate that could replace Biden and do better in November. Name names and cite supporting evidence. Otherwise this is just chaos that benefits Trump.
There's no way anyone has good concrete evidence informing November results, Biden included. This boils down to Biden, his family, party leadership, and donors.
There just wouldn't be much in the way of quantifiable evidence of what a Buttigieg, Harris, Newsom, or other would poll if they did replace Biden and got their sea legs in.
The fact that Trump still polls 45-50% at any given time still terrifies me.
Buttigieg and Newsom have already said they don't want Biden to step down. I don't expect Harris to make a statement on it, because it'll be pilloried no matter what she says, and anything other than loyalty will look like betrayal.
So the "top three candidates" are out. Who else?
(I'm not throwing this at you, @LTParis , and apologies if it seems like I am. I'm supporting your point.)
The Democratic vote might not change much, but the Independent vote might. I'm not willing to take that chance. People who think that dumping Biden is reactionary and impulsive may choose not to vote at all.
And then there's the fact that changing the Presidency means changing most or all of the Cabinet, which means a loss of efficiency as the old staff leave and the new staff have to hit the ground running. This happens every time the Presidency changes, but we don't usually notice it, because it's expected when you're flopping from D to R or back. Having Harris take over is far less likely to have this disruption, because she's already working closely with Biden's Cabinet. It also follows that Harris being the new nominee would likely retain most of the Biden Cabinet for the same reason, but she's the only potential candidate that applies to. And I don't see a whole lot of people cheering for Harris 2024.
The recent polling on this I've found so far: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blo...ve-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump
It's pretty much a wash for any alternate candidates you ask people about in this poll, which would be a reasonable argument for dropping Biden in favor of someone whose age is less of a liability if the primary season were kicking off, but I don't think is a great reason for a panicked last-minute post-primary replacement because the media ganged up on him after his first debate.
It's pretty much a wash for any alternate candidates you ask people about in this poll, which would be a reasonable argument for dropping Biden in favor of someone whose age is less of a liability if the primary season were kicking off, but I don't think is a great reason for a panicked last-minute post-primary replacement because the media ganged up on him after his first debate.
This is from Biden's own aides: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/two-bidens-trump-debate-2024-president
Oh great...
The World Saw Biden Deteriorating. Democrats Ignored the Warnings.
So even in some of the most important discussions, he was not alert. He misses important events.
If Republicans succeed in releasing the Hur tapes, I think Biden will be done. There's a good chance he sounds exactly like he did in the debates, and that's why Democrats have been so worried about having the recordings released. That will establish his mental state as not a one-off due to a cold, but part of a persistent pattern of mental and physical decline.
Oh great...
The World Saw Biden Deteriorating. Democrats Ignored the Warnings.
So even in some of the most important discussions, he was not alert. He misses important events.
If Republicans succeed in releasing the Hur tapes, I think Biden will be done. There's a good chance he sounds exactly like he did in the debates, and that's why Democrats have been so worried about having the recordings released. That will establish his mental state as not a one-off due to a cold, but part of a persistent pattern of mental and physical decline.
If on the other hand Biden were to assess his own ability and conclude he can't do the rest of the campaign, that would be another story. I'd then say he should withdraw and release his delegates. It would then become the job of the delegates to make the best choice and any contenders to make their case to the delegates.
No one would blame Biden if he wanted to step down. Hell, I'm reminded of the threads we talked about Biden not admitting to being a single term President because it would make him a lame duck after the midterms and I'm left wondering if the debate was Dark Brandon's exit strategy.
Yeah, no. The only way forward at this point is Harris. The only way Biden delegates are freed is if Biden releases them, and if he steps aside, he's stepping aside for Harris. She's been a loyal VP.
You know, if you're going to bitch about the process, it really would help if you had a clue about the process. Today, right now, Biden in the nominee. He has 99% of the delegates and those delegates pledged to him are required to vote for him at least on the early ballots. Do you REALLY think that those delegates are going to ignore Biden's wishes if he steps aside? He's not going to throw the convention into chaos, he's going to name his preferred candidate. And that's going to be Harris.
Just think for a second about what happens if the Democrats throw away their most prominent Black Presidential candidate because Biden is old. Someone who has been doing the dirty job of VP loyally for the entire administration. Just how do you think Black voters are going to react if the message to Harris is "Thanks, don't let the door hit your ass on the way out!"?
And no, Democratic voters aren't tired, they've consistently voted for Biden over the last two cycles. If you don't like that, your problem is with the Democratic voters, not the party.