The 2024 Presidential Election - Oops, We Did It Again

DarthSlack · 2024-06-30T07:16:13-0400

Smashing Young Man said:
The simple fact of it is, it is pointless to talk about Trump now. Whether or not he should withdraw, that he's a convicted felon, how he wants to destroy democracy . . . whatever. Nothing can be said about Trump at this point is going to move the needle in Biden's favor, no matter how loudly or often it's repeated it.

It's on Biden to change voters' minds, and all the calls for him to resign come from the realization that he can't. There is nothing coming down the pike that is going to make voters suddenly say: Oh shit! I need to vote for Biden! Meanwhile, between now and November, Biden will continue to have his embarrassing senior moments.

The more I think about it, the more I believe the 25th needs to be invoked; not just to remove Biden from office to run someone more electable, but for its intended purpose. Given the volatility of the current world, it's outright dangerous for Biden to be in office now. What we saw of Biden the other night will tempt unfriendly regimes the world over to make their moves against the US. Hell, I can imagine more extreme elements in Russia seeing this as the perfect time to break out the nukes. There are decisions the executive may need to make quickly and decisively, and you won't get sure and decisive from the committee of bureaucrats who've surely been the ones calling the shots thus far.

And here it is.

Again.

The Republicans can behave as horribly as humanly possible. They can lie, cheat, and steal with impunity. They can be racist, sexist, every ist in the books. They can loudly proclaim they're going to rip up the Constitution. They can advocate for women to become property. They can nominate a convicted felon for the highest office in the land.

Yup, they can do that and so much more, but the only possible solution to any of this is for Democrats to dump Biden. The simple fact is that there should be a laser focus on Trump. On how unsuitable he is as a person, and as a candidate. None of this running from outrage to outrage, focus on how Trump is a completely horrible example of humanity and how he has surrounded himself with people who have openly said they are going to end American democracy.

GMBigKev · 2024-06-30T07:52:45-0400

Smashing Young Man said:
There is nothing coming down the pike that is going to make voters suddenly say: Oh shit! I need to vote for Biden!

Project 2025.
SCOTUS dumping Chevron after calling for Snyder.
Ukraine.
Palestine.

SteveF · 2024-06-30T09:21:40-0400

DarthSlack said:
And here it is.

Again.

The Republicans can behave as horribly as humanly possible. They can lie, cheat, and steal with impunity. They can be racist, sexist, every ist in the books. They can loudly proclaim they're going to rip up the Constitution. They can advocate for women to become property. They can nominate a convicted felon for the highest office in the land.

Yup, they can do that and so much more, but the only possible solution to any of this is for Democrats to dump Biden. The simple fact is that there should be a laser focus on Trump. On how unsuitable he is as a person, and as a candidate. None of this running from outrage to outrage, focus on how Trump is a completely horrible example of humanity and how he has surrounded himself with people who have openly said they are going to end American democracy.

The first step in formulating a solution is to identify the states, districts, and voters that will be key deciders for reaching 270 electoral votes, and then ask them what they think.

DarthSlack · 2024-06-30T09:51:50-0400

SteveF said:
The first step in formulating a solution is to identify the states, districts, and voters that will be key deciders for reaching 270 electoral votes, and then ask them what they think.

What they think about what? Trump is a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist. He got stole boxes and boxes and boxes of highly classified material and stashed it in his personal residence. Mixed with non-classified stuff. There's evidence he was showing the classified material to people without any clearance at all. And he tried as hard as he could to cover all that up. People are in jail today for far less.

He's clearly in cognitive decline, he routinely wanders off into la-la land when he's talking. Including during the debates. His campaign is stuffed to the gills with fascists who are openly planning and proclaiming a post-Constitutional America.

Anyone who is ignoring this doesn't deserve to have someone ask what they think. Because clearly, they're not thinking at all.

Felix K · 2024-06-30T10:22:41-0400

They're both unfit for office. I hope, dearly, that people will vote Democrat regardless but I don't know what's worse, a puppet of an inner circle or a puppet of oligarchs.

I can't believe the Democratic Party leadership let this happen.

I am glad that we are having this conversation in fits and starts. There will be more and more people in this country in positions of power that do not have their faculties. We need to have a system in place for when it's time for them to go.

karolus · 2024-06-30T10:33:03-0400

Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more? Biden was already old at that point. It's not the best look—but remember—you're voting for the team, not the individual. This Administration has already made significant strides in improving the situation for Americans, and is working to repair and strengthen our international relationships at a critical time. What does the other side offer?

blindbear · 2024-06-30T10:41:53-0400

karolus said:
Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more? Biden was already old at that point. It's not the best look—but remember—you're voting for the team, not the individual. This Administration has already made significant strides in improving the situation for Americans, and is working to repair and strengthen our international relationships at a critical time. What does the other side offer?

The captain of the ship should still be capable. He/she may have a crews but a captain still has his/her duty. Honestly, if Biden is in such a bad shape, then we will just run Harris. There is an obvious line of succession here. Anything else would just be pure chaos at this point.

If people want to claim there are better candidates, then they need to put forth their names.

fil · 2024-06-30T10:52:08-0400

karolus said:
Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more? Biden was already old at that point. It's not the best look—but remember—you're voting for the team, not the individual.

I mean, they did. Through the first three contests (Iowa, NH, NV), Buttigieg, Sanders, Klobuchar, and Warren all had more votes than Biden, who only had about 12% of the vote through that point, and was in 5th place in the race. NH is particularly enlightening, because that is the state where candidate-voter engagement is strongest, and voter participation is extremely high (and there Sanders got 26%, Pete 24%, Amy 20%, Warren 9%, and Biden 8%).

But after Biden's big victory in South Carolina, the other "middle lane" candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, both had come to Jesus (or Obama / Jimmy Carter / Selma) moments where they decided the best thing for the country was if they pulled out of the race and endorsed Biden and the rest is history. Edit: I'm a big Joe Biden fan, but the reality is that Biden did not win the 2020 primary on his own merits as a campaigner - he won it based on the fact that democratic leaders (Obama, Carter, Clyburn) and eventually Buttigieg and Klobuchar themselves, decided that the best thing for the party and the country was to rally around Biden, end the primary quickly, and focus efforts on beating Trump.

And at the time, Biden was more than 4 years younger than he is now, and many viewed him as a single term bridge to the future (and did not expect he would run for re-election).

karolus said:
This Administration has already made significant strides in improving the situation for Americans, and is working to repair and strengthen our international relationships at a critical time. What does the other side offer?

Nothing. Which is why it's so important to win the election. And after Thursday's debate, many people believe the best way to win is for Biden to step aside and let a new generation of D's battle it out for a few weeks to decide who is the best nominee.

Felix K · 2024-06-30T10:52:44-0400

karolus said:
Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more? Biden was already old at that point. It's not the best look—but remember—you're voting for the team, not the individual. This Administration has already made significant strides in improving the situation for Americans, and is working to repair and strengthen our international relationships at a critical time. What does the other side offer?

By media accounts it was Clyburn's pull with Black voters and particularly Black women that clinched it for Biden. Kamala Harris's campaign imploded, business refused to allow Warren to advance and no one would let Bernie run this country, we might just become progressive. No one took Pete or Klobuchar seriously.

If business and Black voters hadn't ignored Harris or Warren, I believe we might have had a woman president, finally.

Thank You and Best of Luck! · 2024-06-30T11:00:16-0400

karolus said:
Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more?

Because for the circumstances at that moment, Biden was by far the most known quantity in the field, and at that moment in time amid the pandemic and Trump’s chaos it was a significant advantage to be exceptionally “normal”. People picked milquetoast as their reform candidate to reform the spastic ridiculousness of the Trump administration.

Biden being a known quantity of his sort isn’t the advantage in 2024 that it was in 2020. Now it’s a liability. He’s an unpopular President presiding over a government and institutions that people are very dissatisfied with and people aren’t excited about voting for Biden. They’re scared about Trump.

I don’t think that can be overstated. We’re in an election cycle that a spunky relatively unknown up and comer has a huge zeitgeist advantage because of how dissatisfied huge swaths of the country are with their options being two and a half old men who are barely coherent each in their own special way.

Clinton lost to Trump because she was establishment and too much of a known quantity at a time when people wanted things to be shaken up and their only “shake things up” candidate was a malevolent, malignant narcissist. Biden is going to lose in 2024 because of essentially the same dynamic. Except worse. Because people are even less excited to rally behind Biden in 2024 than they were to rally behind him in 2020 and than they were to rally behind Clinton in 2016.

I no longer think this is going to even be a close race. Biden’s performance is going to get worse, not better.

wrylachlan · 2024-06-30T11:42:42-0400

People who want change always underestimate how much of the electorate want stability. When given the choice between a guarantee of no backsliding and a reasonable chance of small improvement vs. a chance of big improvement with a chance of backsliding, huge percentages would choose the former over the latter.

And somewhat paradoxically this is especially true among those worst off. People in poverty and those discriminated against have a lived experience of what worse off feels like and they don’t want to go back there. The guarantee of no backsliding is much more attractive.

So as much as progressives seem to think that all we need is a new Kennedy, I’m not convinced that any alternative is going to do better against Trump than Biden.

Made in Hurry · 2024-06-30T11:47:28-0400

DarthSlack said:
And here it is.

Again.

The Republicans can behave as horribly as humanly possible. They can lie, cheat, and steal with impunity. They can be racist, sexist, every ist in the books. They can loudly proclaim they're going to rip up the Constitution. They can advocate for women to become property. They can nominate a convicted felon for the highest office in the land.

Yup, they can do that and so much more, but the only possible solution to any of this is for Democrats to dump Biden. The simple fact is that there should be a laser focus on Trump. On how unsuitable he is as a person, and as a candidate. None of this running from outrage to outrage, focus on how Trump is a completely horrible example of humanity and how he has surrounded himself with people who have openly said they are going to end American democracy.

A question in seriousness, why haven't the Democrats done that? Or Biden? Attacked Trump on the things you list?

Because whatever they have been doing, it is not working.

karolus · 2024-06-30T12:05:09-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Clinton lost to Trump because she was establishment and too much of a known quantity at a time when people wanted things to be shaken up and their only “shake things up” candidate was a malevolent, malignant narcissist. Biden is going to lose in 2024 because of essentially the same dynamic. Except worse. Because people are even less excited to rally behind Biden in 2024 than they were to rally behind him in 2020 and than they were to rally behind Clinton in 2016.

I no longer think this is going to even be a close race. Biden’s performance is going to get worse, not better.

Clinton made a grave mistake of going establishment at the time she did—since as you note, the population was ready for change. It was the greatest opportunity for a third-party candidate in years, and what Trump essentially was—by his upending of the GOP malaise.

In this race, the performance of the candidates and their administrations is a known quantity. The question is—who is going to be worse. Based on the debate, it's obvious that Trump will be worse for the country and global communities, and is losing grip on his faculties as well. Do you want a reactionary with scores to settle, as well as turning backs on the people who need support the most? If Biden needs replacement, that can happen after the election.

wco81 · 2024-06-30T12:05:34-0400

karolus said:
Rolling the clock back to 2020, there were numerous candidates in the Democratic primary. If any were that compelling, why didn't they resonate with the voters more? Biden was already old at that point. It's not the best look—but remember—you're voting for the team, not the individual. This Administration has already made significant strides in improving the situation for Americans, and is working to repair and strengthen our international relationships at a critical time. What does the other side offer?

Bernie was off the reservation. He refused to repudiate Castro or Maduro or Chavez, right before the FL primary. He never had much support. Remember that after the first couple of primaries, his followers were demanding that even if he just got a plurality of delegates, not the required majority, he was owed the nomination. But the moderates coalesced around Biden when they had visions of Bernie in the general taking ridiculous positions on socialist countries.

Biden did horribly in the primary debates that year too.

In any event, the Democratic big tent is horrible at playing team ball.

Now, Biden is too old and Trump is too criminal, too racist, too Putinist, too authoritarian, too white and christian nationalist.

So Biden must be disqualified!

linnen · 2024-06-30T12:08:30-0400

Made in Hurry said:
A question in seriousness, why haven't the Democrats done that? Or Biden? Attacked Trump on the things you list?

Because whatever they have been doing, it is not working.

Then pay attention, because the Democrats and Biden have pointed out Trump's Failures repeatedly. Even if the media has not amplified what they said, you could have picked up on what the media did report on.

wco81 · 2024-06-30T12:16:51-0400

linnen said:
Then pay attention, because the Democrats and Biden have pointed out Trump's Failures repeatedly. Even if the media has not amplified what they said, you could have picked up on what the media did report on.

Unfortunately, he had a chance before 51 million viewers to do some of that Thursday night.

Now of course CNN and others are saying it's not their responsibility to fact-check Trump's lies on the debate stage, Biden should have called him out on it.

That's true, Biden had to rebut it but CNN got intimidated when earlier in the primary season, they tried to fact check Trump at a town hall.

Berhune · 2024-06-30T12:24:00-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Clinton lost to Trump because she was establishment and too much of a known quantity at a time when people wanted things to be shaken up and their only “shake things up” candidate was a malevolent, malignant narcissist.

There's also a strong current of sexism in this country, especially among those who care most about the kind of "strength" that has apparently disqualified Biden. Harris, besides her already opportunistic and patronizing reputation, would have that and the racist headwinds that fueled Trumpism during Obama's administration to contend with. Yet, she is the only alternative that requires anything less than incredibly risky, chaotic realignment.

Berhune · 2024-06-30T12:35:00-0400

wco81 said:
Unfortunately, he had a chance before 51 million viewers to do some of that Thursday night.

Now of course CNN and others are saying it's not their responsibility to fact-check Trump's lies on the debate stage, Biden should have called him out on it.

That's true, Biden had to rebut it but CNN got intimidated when earlier in the primary season, they tried to fact check Trump at a town hall.

If Biden had been quicker on his feet at the debate, and more ready to recall contradicting facts, then perhaps he could have tried to shoot down more of Trump's lies in the time he was allotted, but I honestly think it still would have been a waste of time. Biden already spent plenty of each precious minute or two disclaiming Trump's remarks as "malarky," "lies," expressing disbelief at "the idea of" whatever Trump was talking about, looking horrified, and grinning/shaking head at his audacity, when he wasn't trying to answer the question. To be honest, I wish he had spent less of his time doing even this. He was too often baited into bickering, but no other debater could have escaped the "you're lying! No you're lying!" lowest common denominator confusion that Trump relies on to keep credibility with the uninformed.

fil · 2024-06-30T12:35:54-0400

Berhune said:
There's also a strong current of sexism in this country, especially among those who care most about the kind of "strength" that has apparently disqualified Biden. Harris, besides her already opportunistic and patronizing reputation, would have that and the racist headwinds that fueled Trumpism during Obama's administration to contend with. Yet, she is the only alternative that requires anything less than incredibly risky, chaotic realignment.

I'm really not sure why people keep saying this. Seems like they're confusing two different things.

One thing is the Presidency (this term) itself: For that we have a President and a VP, and if something happens where the President can't do the job anymore the VP (Harris) steps in.

Another thing entirely is the primary contest to be the D nominee for President in this election: There Biden has by far the most delegates, but if he steps out of the race, his delegates are released and go vote for whomever they choose (and the usual route would be to have some kind of process, at the least a series of speeches given by contenders for the support of the delegates who were formerly Biden's). Harris has no special role in this at all, and if she wants to throw her hat in the ring, she'd have to compete for delegates on the same footing as everyone else (now it's possible Biden could advise his delegates to support Harris or some other particular candidate, but doing so would be politically very unwise - best to let the people have at least some role in the choice rather than anointing someone).

Thank You and Best of Luck! · 2024-06-30T12:43:39-0400

karolus said:
In this race, the performance of the candidates and their administrations is a known quantity. The question is—who is going to be worse. Based on the debate, it's obvious that Trump will be worse for the country and global communities, and is losing grip on his faculties as well. Do you want a reactionary with scores to settle, as well as turning backs on the people who need support the most? If Biden needs replacement, that can happen after the election.

Except that isn’t the question. That’s the question that you wish you had. Not the one you actually have.

Louis XVI · 2024-06-30T12:48:48-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Except that isn’t the question. That’s the question that you wish you had. Not the one you actually have.

I think there’s a decent chance that the election turns out to be a referendum on Trump: Is he bad enough that it’s better to vote for a potted plant than Trump? Me, I’d happily vote for Biden over Trump even if he was literally in a coma.

It’s still early, and I don’t have much faith at all in modern polling, but initial polls after the debate are not showing much movement away from Biden or towards Trump. This suggests that Biden’s performance may not have swayed many voters, which in turns suggest that his vitality isn’t necessarily a fundamental issue to many voters.

Berhune · 2024-06-30T12:52:11-0400

fil said:
I'm really not sure why people keep saying this. Seems like they're confusing two different things.

One thing is the Presidency (this term) itself: For that we have a President and a VP, and if something happens where the President can't do the job anymore the VP (Harris) steps in.

That's fair. I should have said that Harris will seem like the obvious choice to many Democrats, given her proximity to the president, and because she's black. As the formal successor during Biden's presidency, I believe she would be an easier sell by the party to its voters. I don't think she would be able to beat Trump in a national election, however. (I don't believe a fresh face introduced at this stage after a second rushed and contentious primary election would be able to, either.)

DarthSlack · 2024-06-30T13:25:22-0400

Made in Hurry said:
A question in seriousness, why haven't the Democrats done that? Or Biden? Attacked Trump on the things you list?

Because whatever they have been doing, it is not working.

As mentioned earlier, the Democrats have been pointing to Trump's inadequacies. But when the mainstream press like the NYT decide that the most appropriate route is to call for Biden to step aside instead of ripping Trump a new one for lying continuously, it makes it hard to get the message out. And when you have clowns like Tapper, who like to style themselves as Big Time Reporter, sit there like a mute barnacle when Trump lies to his face, well, there's only so much Democrats can do. I mean, Tapper gets paid something like $8M a year, and the best he can do is imitate a paving brick.

etr · 2024-06-30T13:33:01-0400

Louis XVI said:
It’s still early, and I don’t have much faith at all in modern polling, but initial polls after the debate are not showing much movement away from Biden or towards Trump. This suggests that Biden’s performance may not have swayed many voters, which in turns suggest that his vitality isn’t necessarily a fundamental issue to many voters.

It cuts both ways. If an awful performance in front of one the largest audiences he will have can't lose Biden any support, then what does that say of the campaign's persuasion job this far? I high floor is nice, but the floor does not look high enough to win without finding the steps.

elliptic · 2024-06-30T13:42:58-0400

I think Biden should make it all or nothing. That is, he steps down if and only if Trump does. Personally, I would be fine with two different candidates, but if Trump stays in it then I think Biden should too. I just don’t see a viable path for the dems to replace Biden this late otherwise.

wco81 · 2024-06-30T13:44:03-0400

Supposedly big donors will have a lot of sway. If fundraising dries up, they will put more pressure on Biden.

As will polls, not just for the presidential race but all the down ballot.

karolus · 2024-06-30T13:48:05-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Except that isn’t the question. That’s the question that you wish you had. Not the one you actually have.

You can't run with the candidate you wish you had—you run with the candidate you have. Based on the choices available, which one offers the least chance of harm?

Sure, most people would love a charismatic JFK-like figure, as most would like to draft a stellar athlete for their team. But, those opportunities come few and far between. And even when the opportunities present themselves, how often does the reality live up to the promise?

Louis XVI · 2024-06-30T13:50:21-0400

etr said:
It cuts both ways. If an awful performance in front of one the largest audiences he will have can't lose Biden any support, then what does that say of the campaign's persuasion job this far? I high floor is nice, but the floor does not look high enough to win without finding the steps.

If his floor is a virtual tie, then I’d say he’s in surprisingly good shape! Nowhere to go but up, which can be accomplished by either Biden improving his presentation or Trump alienating even more voters.

karolus · 2024-06-30T13:54:26-0400

DarthSlack said:
As mentioned earlier, the Democrats have been pointing to Trump's inadequacies. But when the mainstream press like the NYT decide that the most appropriate route is to call for Biden to step aside instead of ripping Trump a new one for lying continuously, it makes it hard to get the message out. And when you have clowns like Tapper, who like to style themselves as Big Time Reporter, sit there like a mute barnacle when Trump lies to his face, well, there's only so much Democrats can do. I mean, Tapper gets paid something like $8M a year, and the best he can do is imitate a paving brick.

In spite of his lackluster showing, to his credit, Biden did call out Trump's lies during the debate. That needs to be hammered more.

FDR may have been campaigning on a New Deal, with Trump it's a Bad Deal—unless you can directly help him.

Thank You and Best of Luck! · 2024-06-30T14:03:03-0400

Louis XVI said:
If his floor is a virtual tie, then I’d say he’s in surprisingly good shape! Nowhere to go but up, which can be accomplished by either Biden improving his presentation or Trump alienating even more voters.

Or can get worse by Biden’s age issues getting worse, which is an absolute certainty, and Biden’s camp (along with the Democrats writ large) alienate more voters by some combination of gaslighting them about Biden’s age, gaslighting them about it not really being a vote for Harris, or by showing they’re unwilling or unable to be responsive to issues that are obvious and exigent to anyone with one good eye and a pulse.

fil · 2024-06-30T14:03:09-0400

Berhune said:
That's fair. I should have said that Harris will seem like the obvious choice to many Democrats, given her proximity to the president, and because she's black. As the formal successor during Biden's presidency, I believe she would be an easier sell by the party to its voters. I don't think she would be able to beat Trump in a national election, however. (I don't believe a fresh face introduced at this stage after a second rushed and contentious primary election would be able to, either.)

It's just that last bit, about fresh faces, where we disagree. The party has a really impressive set of rising stars with broad appeal, we just haven't seen them much on the national stage because the party decided to anoint Biden and not have a (meaningfully) contested primary this year. If Biden drops out, and we can get 5 of the D rising stars on a stage together a few times over a few weeks, the best will rise to the top and the best will be really good.

I mean, Beshear won the governship twice in Kentucky, a state Trump took by TWENTY-SIX points, and Beshear did it not by running as center or center-right, but by making a very compelling case for democratic policies to a broad chunk of the electorate. Similarly impressive feats have been carried out by Kelly (a former astronaut), Whitmer, Warnock, Klobuchar and many others. Look for the folks who massively outperform the expectations for an average democrat in a statewide election - those are the ones with the sort of broad appeal needed to not just win a presidential election, but have the sort of coattails needed to take the House and Senate as well.

linnen · 2024-06-30T14:10:36-0400

fil said:
It's just that last bit, about fresh faces, where we disagree. The party has a really impressive set of rising stars with broad appeal, we just haven't seen them much on the national stage because the party decided to anoint Biden and not have a (meaningfully) contested primary this year. If Biden drops out, and we can get 5 of the D rising stars on a stage together a few times over a few weeks, the best will rise to the top and the best will be really good.

I mean, Beshear won the governship twice in Kentucky, a state Trump took by TWENTY-SIX points, and Beshear did it not by running as center or center-right, but by making a very compelling case for democratic policies to a broad chunk of the electorate. Similarly impressive feats have been carried out by Kelly (a former astronaut), Whitmer, Warnock, Klobuchar and many others. Look for the folks who massively outperform the expectations for an average democrat in a statewide election - those are the ones with the sort of broad appeal needed to not just win a presidential election, but have the sort of coattails needed to take the House and Senate as well.

Maybe the new and rising stars did not wish to pull a RFK jr campaign to fall on their faces when they could wait until the next general that did not have an incumbent running?

karolus · 2024-06-30T14:12:51-0400

Well, RFK Jr. did have more issues than running against an incumbent. Topping the list would be some of his controversial theories that have cost him even the support of his family.

Thank You and Best of Luck! · 2024-06-30T14:15:12-0400

fil said:
we just haven't seen them much on the national stage because the party decided to anoint Biden and not have a (meaningfully) contested primary this year

Nor meaningfully contested in 2020 either. The current one was essentially unopposed, but 2020 wasn’t a contest either after the establishment bloc lined up behind Biden as the reformer bloc was split between Sanders & Warren, with the fringe entirely-stupid-but-feelsgood flank dabbling with Yang.

Candidate Biden was absolutely the “safe bet” to beat Trump in 2020. Note, I didn’t say “good bet”, which was born out by how narrow his victory actually was in reality. 2024 is a very different set of circumstances for Candidate Biden, and I don’t think he’s either the “safe bet” nor the “good bet”, but he’s almost certainly the bet that’s going to be made, and the bet we’ll have to live with.

Which is why I think we should switch gears from beating Trump at the polls as Plan A, and move that to, “Boy it would sure be nice if that happened.”, and make Plan A levels of resources and energy be about dealing with Trump & MAGA after they win.

fil · 2024-06-30T14:16:15-0400

linnen said:
Maybe the new and rising stars did not wish to pull a RFK jr campaign to fall on their faces when they could wait until the next general that did not have an incumbent running?

Of course no one who wanted to be a rising leader in the Democratic party ran in the 2024 primary because the party told them not to - the party decided that Biden would be the nominee, and no one who wants the party's support in the future is going to go against that. But if Biden steps out of the race, it's an entirely different situation, and the rising stars will be tripping over themselves to jump in. They don't even have to do a grueling year-long campaign, and the fundraising will totally take care of itself (Trump is the D's key fundraising entity, anybody who's nominated and looks like they can beat Trump will be rolling in campaign funds). And even if they lose, the amount of free publicity and increased prominence and name-recognition will be massive.

Thank You and Best of Luck! · 2024-06-30T14:20:41-0400

fil said:
Of course no one who wanted to be a rising leader in the Democratic party ran in the 2024 primary because the party told them not to - the party decided that Biden would be the nominee, and no one who wants the party's support in the future is going to go against that.

The Democratic Party didn’t decide that. Joe Biden decided that. He would have had to decide to step down months and months ago to allow for a normal process to move forward.

He didn’t do that. Instead he turned to Ginsburg’s Ghost and said, “Hold my beer.”

karolus · 2024-06-30T14:24:04-0400

A lot of that is speculation on our end. Unless someone here is privy without saying, we have no insight into what discussions and decisions were being made within the Democratic Party leading up to this point.

fil · 2024-06-30T14:28:06-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Nor meaningfully contested in 2020 either. The current one was essentially unopposed, but 2020 wasn’t a contest either after the establishment bloc lined up behind Biden as the reformer bloc was split between Sanders & Warren, with the fringe entirely-stupid-but-feelsgood flank dabbling with Yang.

Yeah, I'd say 2020 was allowed to be contested for a while, but not indefinitely. Looking back it all could've gone quite differently if Buttigieg and Klobuchar hadn't split up the mainstream-D-who-doesn't-want-Biden vote. The Pete+Amy combined vote total would've convincingly won Iowa and NH, and more than tripled up Biden's total in those two contests, which could've led to a different calculus by party leadership. But as it was, after SC, party leadership decided to go with Biden, and Pete & Amy were convinced to go along and support this.

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Candidate Biden was absolutely the “safe bet” to beat Trump in 2020. Note, I didn’t say “good bet”, which was born out by how narrow his victory actually was in reality.

Yeah, can't help thinking Klobuchar would've won that one by 20 points, but maybe that's just me.

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
2024 is a very different set of circumstances for Candidate Biden, and I don’t think he’s either the “safe bet” nor the “good bet”, but he’s almost certainly the bet that’s going to be made, and the bet we’ll have to live with.

I get it the skepticism and cynicism, but I think there's a real chance the party will act. They're not stupid, and there were a lot of things about Biden's debate performance that were just obvious and undeniable, can't be fixed, and will only get worse. The trick is that Biden's stubborn and seems himself a scrappy fighter who beats back the odds, so he may not respond well to the mountain of pressure he's surely feeling right now to drop out.

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Which is why I think we should switch gears from beating Trump at the polls as Plan A, and move that to, “Boy it would sure be nice if that happened.”, and make Plan A levels of resources and energy be about dealing with Trump & MAGA after they win.

I mean, cynicism is fine and all, but this is just dumb. All hands on deck to win this thing, hopefully with someone new, but with Biden if that's the way it has to go.

wco81 · 2024-06-30T14:30:59-0400

Klobuchar?

fil · 2024-06-30T14:33:06-0400

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
The Democratic Party didn’t decide that. Joe Biden decided that. He would have had to decide to step down months and months ago to allow for a normal process to move forward.

He didn’t do that. Instead he turned to Ginsburg’s Ghost and said, “Hold my beer.”

Well, fair enough, but at least in principle, when Joe said "I'm running again", the party could've responded to Joe's stubbornness by saying "ok, but if you do, we're going to pull in the best of the best of our rising stars and have a real contest and you are going to get Klobuchared in the debates just like you did in 2020, and we're not going to bail you out this time."

(Of course in reality they did the opposite and made sure nobody serious ran against Biden)

The 2024 Presidential Election - Oops, We Did It Again

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