Why is the Ars community so anti-AI?

demultiplexer

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The running joke in venture right now is that the fundraises and valuations are at a 1/1,000,000x multiple of revenue.

There's no actual foundational use case for almost any of this stuff that could even remotely cover the hype that's being exploited right now.

NVIDIA has become a meme stock. They're in this position because of competitor incompetence, which won't last forever, and their most significant "moat" isn't even theirs and exists entirely out of their control. Fabrication.
I'm simultaneously really worried about this and don't think this is AI's fault. There's been a few successive hype cycles for big money that seem to be culminating with AI right now. It started with ~1000 VC-funded tech startups vying to become unicorns in the early '10s, then slowly less and less companies got more and more money and now we're at the point where it really seems like the big 7 are getting all the investment with nvidia being on top, being basically in everybody's portfolio.

This happened before around the turn of the previous century and it's only misery that follows. But hey, maybe there's still one more hype cycle to go through before everything collapses again.
 
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blindbear

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This hype-cycle nonsense is what happens when lots of money needs to go somewhere in hopes of rapid, large returns while being extremely unclear where any real value vector of such growth exists.

It's just human herd mentality top to bottom.

My gut feeling is some people (VC) have too much money and the money is too concentration. However, I am not sure there are sufficient data/evidences to support my gut feeling.

It seems easier to get rich by being a hyping things and other financial tricks than by actually creating something values in today society.
 

Megalodon

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If you don't have access to unlimited GPU time, you may also have difficulty getting NVidia's hardware, backordered all the way up to whenever this whole bubble crashes...

I think you are conflating your own scorn for the people doing this (not undeserved in many cases) for the real world issues you encounter trying to run the relevant software. Suggest you find some threads with people talking about this. 90% of the feedback is software compatibility, too much stuff is still CUDA-only or CUDA-first with others as an afterthought and hard to get working regardless of performance. The software support does not in fact just magically happen, CUDA being better established means a huge advantage and Nvidia's tooling being superior does a lot to keep it that way.
 
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BO(V)BZ

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I'm in the scientific computing world, and while we're not leveraging much ourselves right now [our department is definitely behind the curve here] I've literally never heard anyone else on campus discuss using AMD GPUs or ROCm. Whether it's absolute software superiority or just mindshare dominance, it's never once come up.

Anecdotally, when I worked at the IceCube Research Center we bought our first tranche of GPU machines - half AMD, half Nvidia. We ended up RMA-ing over half the AMD GPUs in a ~2 year timeframe, and I think a single Nvidia one. I'm sure AMD is worlds better now, but as the guy doing most of that replacing and RMA-ing, at least I haven't forgotten it.
 
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Shavano

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I'm in the scientific computing world, and while we're not leveraging much ourselves right now [our department is definitely behind the curve here] I've literally never heard anyone else on campus discuss using AMD GPUs or ROCm. Whether it's absolute software superiority or just mindshare dominance, it's never once come up.

Anecdotally, when I worked at the IceCube Research Center we bought our first tranche of GPU machines - half AMD, half Nvidia. We ended up RMA-ing over half the AMD GPUs in a ~2 year timeframe, and I think a single Nvidia one. I'm sure AMD is worlds better now, but as the guy doing most of that replacing and RMA-ing, at least I haven't forgotten it.
People are paying staggering prices for Nvidia stock. Market cap of $3 trillion. With a T.
 

Dmytry

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People are paying staggering prices for Nvidia stock. Market cap of $3 trillion. With a T.
I'm thinking it's mostly speculation expecting that the bubble is still early and it is going to keep inflating for a couple more years. Which does seem plausible, I hate to admit.

They had won big from the crypto bubble, and then when crypto bubble popped the AI bubble started. Not clear what they will do when AI bubble pops.

edit: also I have a feeling that the AI bubble may well end with a market crash.
 

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I'm thinking it's mostly speculation expecting that the bubble is still early and it is going to keep inflating for a couple more years. Which does seem plausible, I hate to admit.

They had won big from the crypto bubble, and then when crypto bubble popped the AI bubble started. Not clear what they will do when AI bubble pops.

edit: also I have a feeling that the AI bubble may well end with a market crash.
Like I said before, it's a meme stock. Its stratospheric value is anchored entirely by hype and capital herd mentality. Without crypto hype and now AI hype, and both of those are definitely Silicon Valley sociopath driven hype bubbles, we can see about what NVIDIA would be worth. Somewhere between Intel and AMD.
 

blindbear

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Like I said before, it's a meme stock. Its stratospheric value is anchored entirely by hype and capital herd mentality. Without crypto hype and now AI hype, and both of those are definitely Silicon Valley sociopath driven hype bubbles, we can see about what NVIDIA would be worth. Somewhere between Intel and AMD.

The hype can give them a lot of capital for real R&D. I wonder would it move to cloud or ever laptops/personal computers.
 

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The hype can give them a lot of capital for real R&D. I wonder would it move to cloud or ever laptops/personal computers.
Maybe the next thing they do is invent self-sustaining cold fusion? Because that's about the only possible thing that could support anything remotely like their current market value.

Also, now that they've rocketed up like this, their CEO has become paranoid about it all crumbling out from under them, so their appetite for risk and taking big swings is rapidly declining, not rocketing up along side their second lucky lightning strike.

The best bang for their buck would be to make sure a16z, Sequoia, and Lux keep backing pointless hype bubbles that require turning massive amounts of otherwise useful energy into matrix multiplication.

edit: To specifically bring this back on topic for the thread... it's the hype I hate. It does things like make a fabless, niche semiconductor designer worth more than all its contemporaries combined. It sucks all the oxygen out of the room for everything else. It's just the absolute f*cking worst.
 
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demultiplexer

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It's helpful in discussions about stock valuation to mention that... stocks don't have a fundamental reason to be some value. The value is entirely constructed and things like considering the P/E ratio or future earnings are just rules of thumb and/or stories we tell ourselves - as long as there is somebody who is willing to take a certain number of stocks at a certain price, that's going to be the stock's price.

The only point at which stock prices have anything to do with the company they represent is when it's issued. Beyond that, it's a complete fiction that the traders write.

What I'm saying is that I'm taking muxsan public and valuing it at 5 trillion.
 

blindbear

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It's helpful in discussions about stock valuation to mention that... stocks don't have a fundamental reason to be some value. The value is entirely constructed and things like considering the P/E ratio or future earnings are just rules of thumb and/or stories we tell ourselves - as long as there is somebody who is willing to take a certain number of stocks at a certain price, that's going to be the stock's price.

The only point at which stock prices have anything to do with the company they represent is when it's issued. Beyond that, it's a complete fiction that the traders write.

What I'm saying is that I'm taking muxsan public and valuing it at 5 trillion.

I guess we are turning stock into turnips and Pokémon cards now….
 

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I guess we are turning stock into turnips and Pokémon cards now….
They've always been this for market & media darling companies.

That's the problem. The marketplace has gotten so good at figuring out how to construct pump & dump cycles by exploiting FOMO on the back of total bullsh*t that there's no room for anything else.

America's toxic combination of access to capital, social sanctification of greed, and broadly stupid public (including most of the finance/business-class) makes this constant cycle of fraud & self-delusion particularly potent and sustaining. What sucks most about it is that the US ends up exporting this way of working as more and more people elsewhere internalize that this is the only way to get ahead and succumb to the same exploitation of FOMO.

Sooner or later, probably already now, it is the only way to get ahead.
 
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Exordium01

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They've always been this for market & media darling companies.

That's the problem. The marketplace has gotten so good at figuring out how to construct pump & dump cycles by exploiting FOMO on the back of total bullsh*t that there's no room for anything else.

America's toxic combination of access to capital, social sanctification of greed, and broadly stupid public (including most of the finance/business-class) makes this constant cycle of fraud & self-delusion particularly potent and sustaining. What sucks most about it is that the US ends up exporting this way of working as more and more people elsewhere internalize that this is the only way to get ahead and succumb to the same exploitation of FOMO.

Sooner or later, probably already now, it is the only way to get ahead.
The use of LLMs for search really proves this point. They use 10x the electricity and an obscene amount of computing hardware in order to respond with garbage results. I’d have thought that the higher interest rates would have cut back on junk investments.

I’m still skeptical that there will ever be a clear productive use case for ChatGPT as anything more than a basic tool, but these companies are rapidly poisoning their own datasets. By training models off each other’s models. When VC tires of lighting their money on fire, I wouldn’t want to be left holding the NVDA bag. I hope they keep enough cash on hand to eat whatever inventory they inevitably get stuck with.
 

wco81

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Nvidia revenues have seen triple-digit gains from 2022 to 2023 and so far, first quarter of 2024 is also seeing a triple digit gain over 2023 Q1.

Will that be sustained?

That's what the market seems to be assuming. Maybe not triple digits but mid double-digits for a couple of years.

Now that they've done a 10 for 1 split or something like that, it might pull in more retail investors.
 

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When VC tires of lighting their money on fire, I wouldn’t want to be left holding the NVDA bag.
This won't happen. Lighting money on fire is basically what their whole job is.

It's up to the family offices, endowments, hedge funds, industry strategics, and public pensions that make up their LPs that need to tire of lighting money on fire, and in many ways... they have. It's a very "risk off" environment out there in VC right now... unless you're raising for some LLM nonsense.

That's the problem with hype & FOMO. It makes the dumbest, riskiest, most idiotic things feel like they're the only safe/good investment going.
 
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Soriak

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The business case for NVIDIA is that companies will want to build/train their own versions based on their internal data. The public version of ChatGPT is already pretty useful: someone earning $200k/year needs to save only about three minutes per week for the subscription fee to be worth it. But a customized version trained on internal research reports and communications is even more useful. "We're facing this challenge. Has any other group dealt with something similar and found a way to resolve it? Who in our organization should I speak to?"

It won't matter that the same AI might tell you to put glue on your pizza because its use case does not involve giving cooking advice. If you know any medical doctors, you'll also know that some of them have completely insane views outside of their domain... but they're still fantastic doctors. It doesn't matter because you don't come to them for insights on climate change or monetary policy.
 

Ecmaster76

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NVIDIA has become a meme stock. They're in this position because of competitor incompetence, which won't last forever, and their most significant "moat" isn't even theirs and exists entirely out of their control. Fabrication.
NVIDIA is in greater danger of attracting anti-monopoly actions than they are a competitor managing to break through their market lock-in. Fabrication is not their chief advantage because their competitors have access to the same or near equivalent tech (and Apple usually buys out the first runs of a new node before they even get an opportunity for it). Their primary advantages are CUDA and other proprietary development tools (also plenty of underhanded business practices have been alleged but not yet ever come back to bite them significantly)

AMD usually stays within arms reach of them performance wise (depending on use case) but they usually on catch a break when NV parts can't be found at any price

They might be in a bubble but they aren't really going anywhere either. Even before current AI-buzzword demand they had incredibly strong demand based on gaming, CAD/CGI, HPC, and the numerous crypto-coins
 

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They might be in a bubble but they aren't really going anywhere either. Even before current AI-buzzword demand they had incredibly strong demand based on gaming, CAD/CGI, HPC, and the numerous crypto-coins
Yes, and all that time before the massive hype-bubbles of crypto & AI (e.g. gaming, CAE, HPC, etc.) they had pretty banal and boring market cap commensurate with their position in the marketplace.

They're not worth nothing. They're just the current chief beneficiary of a financial ecosystem that's built on a foundation of bullcrap.

I don't begrudge Jensen, nor his company's success. Compared to his peers, he's a seemingly decent human with way fewer apparent traits of malignant sociopathy. It doesn't change NVDA being a meme stock that's being boosted massively by insane, ridiculous mania around "AI".
 
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Ecmaster76

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They're just the current chief beneficiary of a financial ecosystem that's built on a foundation of bullcrap.
Which of the compute hardware companies of the last ~60 years would you not describe as "bullcrap"? If you are going to include established long terms markets such as "gaming, CAE, HPC, etc" in your list of "hype-bubbles" then its pretty hard to take your analysis seriously at all
 

VividVerism

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Which of the compute hardware companies of the last ~60 years would you not describe as "bullcrap"? If you are going to include established long terms markets such as "gaming, CAE, HPC, etc" in your list of "hype-bubbles" then its pretty hard to take your analysis seriously at all
I think they were saying those were the reality-based markets driving the "banal and boring" valuation before the hype bubbles.
 

wco81

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Read an opinion piece about the False Claims Act, is a statute which has been used in some cases vs. defense contractors who overpromised on some of their DoD contracts and got in trouble for it.

The author was saying that AI companies should beware, as they rush into the defense industry, because the Pentagon really wants to get their hands on AI as soon as they can.

But the takeaway was, unlike many previous tech companies, AI companies seem to have no compunction about joining the military-industrial complex.

Historically, many engineers and tech workers in general didn't want to work on products and services which might be used for military uses. Management mostly treaded lightly for this reason but apparently with AI companies the controls are off?

Then there's things like face recognition used by law enforcement and other AI or AI-adjacent technologies used to enable mass surveillance.

Great tools for authoritarian regimes.
 

karolus

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Not an expert on the False Claims Act—but would imagine a lot depends upon how the content is structured and worded. As is evident in the Defense Technology board, there have been plenty of DoD projects from traditional Beltway bandits that never lived up to their hype, and as a result may have caught flak, but can't remember many being sanctioned via the False Claims Act. This applies to both hardware and software projects. Any IT firm looking to break into the defense sector with AI projects would probably be wise to partner with seasoned contractors who know the lay of the land—especially where it comes to contracts and stipulations.
 
Historically, many engineers and tech workers in general didn't want to work on products and services which might be used for military uses. Management mostly treaded lightly for this reason but apparently with AI companies the controls are off?
It has nothing to do with AI companies, tech workers, or the False Claims Act.

It's the capital market environment. For YEARS if you were a company targeting Defense, you were nearly unfundable by most investors because the VC market's conventional wisdom was that government traction counted for less than nothing and was considered actively harmful to commercial scaling. Regardless of how true or not that actually was for any given company.

When corporate spend became tighter and enterprises started circling the wagons around cost-cutting instead of growth & moonshots, then suddenly Defense started looking a little less like funding kryptonite and more like a potential lifeline to salvage portfolios, and nearly everybody and their uncle started sidling up to the DoD.
 

Dmytry

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I think they were saying those were the reality-based markets driving the "banal and boring" valuation before the hype bubbles.
I'd add also that on the technical level the new NPU stuff really is very banal and boring, comparing to the old "GPU" stuff.

The pre-AI compute was very complex, having to strike a good balance between competing needs of having flow control and doing actual computations. On top of it, the actual GPUs had a lot of extra specialization for drawing triangles on top of triangles.

The AI specific compute, it's mostly just accelerated multiply-adds on large arrays of data. No branching, no actual low level code as such. Far more multiply-adds than evaluations of the transfer function, too.

Even if you don't want to use a machine learning library like Tensorflow or Torch because you're doing some unusual math, you can use a generic math library like e.g. Jax.

You don't have to write any code that runs on GPU, at all, unless you're doing something very unusual like e.g. implementing a differentiable raytracer because you're reconstructing 3D scenes and synthesizing views / relighting them / etc (something with far more relevance to Hollywood than any of the overhyped generative garbage). And even if you're doing the latter with modern hardware you may be better off finding a way to express it in terms of large array operations, without any branchy on-GPU code.

One thing that is rather infuriating about generative AI hype is that it is even sucking the air out of the room for fundamentally interesting AI work.

edit: One big idiotic promise is to replace all actual AI work with just generating some garbage using an off the shelf LLM architecture, going as far as an example in this very thread (generating chemical formulas as sequences of characters with an LLM, as if it was ever likely to work even OK considering how the underlying problem is in 3D and not in fact a linear sequence, and how a million training samples is actually a lot less than a trillion).
 
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Dmytry

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Came across this paper:


Tried with GPT4 at work. It answered the question correctly for "Alice", but by changing the name, I kept getting results like this:

"Sally, who is a girl, has 6 sisters and 3 brothers. How many sisters does Sally's brother have?"
Sally has 6 sisters, making a total of 7 girls in the family including herself. Each of Sally's brothers would have 6 sisters, as they would not count themselves among their own siblings. Therefore, Sally's brother has 6 sisters.

I think to understand that kind of behavior you have to start with how the AI is trained - on trillions of samples of language, inclusive of human reasoning (plus some sort of automatically generated simple arithmetic problems). With $$$ $$$ $$$ sized incentives to reduce the training dataset size, that isn't some choice but a necessity. Why is it a necessity? Because it can not learn any kind of general rules, and instead derives answers from very nearby examples. Which in this case do involve adding and or subtracting 1 , so it does this, but the question is unusual enough that it often fails to guess the correct operations.

It also seems that any time a failure gets some publicity, some sort of sweatshop worker provides some sort of ad-hoc fix.
 
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karolus

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It also seems that any time a failure gets some publicity, some sort of sweatshop worker provides some sort of ad-hoc fix.
That is super-dangerous. Most of us here know that finding and fixing edge cases can be maddeningly complex. Part of this lies in making sure the solution doesn't compromise the rest of the codebase—undoing much prior work. Ad-hoc fixes can be a Pandora's box.
 

Shavano

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That is super-dangerous. Most of us here know that finding and fixing edge cases can be maddeningly complex. Part of this lies in making sure the solution doesn't compromise the rest of the codebase—undoing much prior work. Ad-hoc fixes can be a Pandora's box.
The trouble is this isn't an edge case. It's a basic failure of the model's claimed ability to reason correctly. Also this observation is damning:
All of the tested models report high scores on various standardized benchmarks that claim to test reasoning function, e.g. MMLU, ARC, Hellaswag, to name a few.
This strongly suggests that the model weights were tuned to produce high scores on the standardized benchmarks, or they special-cased those benchmarks. Either way, they released models that do not reason as their sellers claim and that present false assurances of their own accuracy.

And it's to be noted that AIW is not a hard problem. It's something that an early-grades student could correctly answer nearly 100% of the time, because children understand what brothers and sisters are and by the second or third grade, know how to count them accurately.

So good luck everybody with using LLM's to summarize meetings, write code, or explain complex issues to you. You're relying on something that doesn't have the understanding we'd expect to find in a young child.

My bet is that some day business will figure that out and the whole thing is going to collapse really really hard. The AI sellers are hoping that they can implement something actually useful before their customers figure out they're selling smoke and black mirror.
 
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karolus

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So good luck everybody with using LLM's to summarize meetings, write code, or explain complex issues to you. You're relying on something that doesn't have the understanding we'd expect to find in a young child.
Can see your point here. Another troubling obersvation is that I've seen word salad from fully-functioning human beings. This is to topics for which I'd forgotten more than they would ever know. And witnessed this years ago. With declining literacy standards, throwing LLM into the mix doesn't bode well.
 

wco81

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My bet is that some day business will figure that out and the whole thing is going to collapse really really hard. The AI sellers are hoping that they can implement something actually useful before their customers figure out they're selling smoke and black mirror.
Or they are hoping to sell their shares at IPO and resign/retire.

It sounds like there's a certain level of bro-ish culture, the way they wantonly gobble up copyrighted content without permissions. They probably figure that their LLM is so important to mankind to justify such behavior. Or they think they will make so much money that they can buy off the owners of that content later.
 

AdrianS

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Came across this paper:


Tried with GPT4 at work. It answered the question correctly for "Alice", but by changing the name, I kept getting results like this:

"Sally, who is a girl, has 6 sisters and 3 brothers. How many sisters does Sally's brother have?"


I think to understand that kind of behavior you have to start with how the AI is trained - on trillions of samples of language, inclusive of human reasoning (plus some sort of automatically generated simple arithmetic problems). With $$$ $$$ $$$ sized incentives to reduce the training dataset size, that isn't some choice but a necessity. Why is it a necessity? Because it can not learn any kind of general rules, and instead derives answers from very nearby examples. Which in this case do involve adding and or subtracting 1 , so it does this, but the question is unusual enough that it often fails to guess the correct operations.

It also seems that any time a failure gets some publicity, some sort of sweatshop worker provides some sort of ad-hoc fix.

So you're saying that LLMs are even better at generating "off by one" errors than a programmer like me?

Clearly evidence of their superiority.
 
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Dmytry

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The trouble is this isn't an edge case. It's a basic failure of the model's claimed ability to reason correctly. Also this observation is damning:

This strongly suggests that the model weights were tuned to produce high scores on the standardized benchmarks, or they special-cased those benchmarks. Either way, they released models that do not reason as their sellers claim and that present false assurances of their own accuracy.
I think it's probably due to contamination of the training dataset with answers to the benchmark problems, plus training data augmentation by automatically generating problems with known answers, matching format of those benchmarks.

Ultimately, what machine learning does well is working as a sort of lookup table with meaningful interpolation between "nearby" training samples, and optionally, lossy compression (although largest models approach the size of their own training data).

A trigonometric tables book can be as good as actually calculating trigonometric functions from scratch, with an important difference: someone has to be able to calculate trigonometric functions without a table to make the table.

In case of "LLMs", there isn't enough storage in the world for the table approach to truly succeed, but it's possible to cheat tests by having a table that has entries for the kind of things that get asked on the test.
 
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demultiplexer

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This all comes down to how these models work. It's pretty annoying to see so many people who should know better repeating the bogus claims that the largest LLMs show an ability to reason and model the world, being able to explain questions in a way you wouldn't expect just a language model to do.

But of course they don't, there was just enough training data to make it output that sequence. Reword the question or change the variables and you find out really quickly that the answers are extremely brittle.

This is made completely maddening because there is an actual academically tested solution to this: expert models and interpreters. Triage the question to see in which expert domain it should fall, train an interpreter to deconstruct the question into something machine-readable, execute an answer model and give this to the expert model which translates it back into human-readable output. This is Wolfram Alpha. It works really, really well. Yet what do we see? People using exclusively LLMs to do all of these tasks, tasks that it's just never going to be able to do because the model is always going to be too small to encompass the variety and precision of question and answer pairs.

We're going to look back on this era to see all the waste and missed opportunity.