ars predictions... does Biden get replaced before the convention
- Thread starter LTParis
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This comes off as pure wishcasting. Trump's support is baked in; roughly half the electorate is pretty much down for every single piece of awful shit the Republicans get up to and quite willing to trust Trump over their own lying eyes. If they didn't decisively reject him in 2020 what makes you think they'll reject him now, when the memories of all the bad shit has four years to cool and get argued away?At the end of the day, I guess, this is where we differ. I think a 6 week nomination contest, followed by a 2.5 month general election campaign is a great fit for the public's attention span (and actually long compared to what most parliamentary democracies do). I think that 6 week nominating process, with a series of debates and speeches from the rising stars of the democratic party would not only skewer Trump, but it would dramatically raise the profile of Democrats' vision for the future, which Biden has done a very poor job of communicating. It could be transformational not just for this election, but for future ones. It could obliterate Trump so badly that R's would actually go back to the drawing board and maybe try to turn their party back into something civilized and consistent with democratic governance. Maybe I'm just a glass half full kind of guy.
And then you need to you know, find who your candidate is and sell them to the American populace while also managing a massive U-turn from 'Biden is our guy' to 'actually we're gonna kick him to the curb, here's this new face you don't know'. And in doing so convince an electorate (and in particular the mushy middle and the gettable-but-not-guaranteed voters) that this is a positive thing as opposed to a panicked and last minute reaction.
I'm middle of the road here.
One bad performance does not prove a lack of capability, and even someone slipping a little might be OK for the job. (Reagan isn't a favorite here, but he was likely slipping during is time in of office and the country did not melt down. There's a good chance one can govern despite occasional senior moments provided they are short and not too frequent.) And, frankly, a bad enough fever can knock someone a quarter of Biden's age on their backside.
On balance, Biden's performance was pretty bad, and it has knocked loose stories that Biden has age related lapses too often for comfort. I'd still take Harris or a comatose Biden over Trump, but under normal circumstances would come down hard on lack of fitness. Given the likelihood of a close race and that the polls already were not Biden's way, it makes sense a quiet eye on the ball. If it starts to become clear that Biden is in much poorer shape than expected and/or is detiorating quickly, there may come a time a rip cord is necessary.
That said, fantasy is NOT helpful here. If Biden goes, Harris should be up. Even if she decided not to pursue the big job herself (unlikely), she ought to be the chief campaigner for whoever the party winds up with. (If she decided to yield the role and nope out, the party should not back her for any role in the future whatsoever, but I don't see her shirking the party that way.)
If Biden and Harris were to both bow out (extremely unlikely), then the priority needs to coalesce on a replacement quickly. That means brokered in back rooms. Period. It probably means someone in the ideological mold of Biden, given that is less likely to spark defection of delegates chosen to support Biden. It also makes it easy for both Biden and Harris to endorse, and the whole effort would likely be sunk if they did not.
That's what a practical Plan B looks like. When I see a non-practical Plan B, my first question is whether they are really want the best bet to keep Trump out, or just want to play the lottery to see if their dream candidate can make it to the White House somehow. I am not in the mood for a trip to Vegas, to put it mildly.
Probably more important is what happens right now. Biden needs to put himself out there and give people more data points to operate from. Harris needs to get out there more, too. Now is to repeat the argument from 2020 that Harris is ready (especially after four years staying on deck and advising Biden) to step in, should the need arise. ("Unlike my opponent, I'm not looking to hang my VP of 4 years.") It might be smart for Biden to consider holding his nose and give the NYT the interview they've been jonesing for.
And Biden needs to do what it takes to perform well. That means rescheduling when necessary, and it means prioritizing so that he's adequately rested when he needs to perform. That might even mean deprioritizing governing a bit. If there were ever a time, "Before you save the world, you have to save your seat," were true, this would be it.
One bad performance does not prove a lack of capability, and even someone slipping a little might be OK for the job. (Reagan isn't a favorite here, but he was likely slipping during is time in of office and the country did not melt down. There's a good chance one can govern despite occasional senior moments provided they are short and not too frequent.) And, frankly, a bad enough fever can knock someone a quarter of Biden's age on their backside.
On balance, Biden's performance was pretty bad, and it has knocked loose stories that Biden has age related lapses too often for comfort. I'd still take Harris or a comatose Biden over Trump, but under normal circumstances would come down hard on lack of fitness. Given the likelihood of a close race and that the polls already were not Biden's way, it makes sense a quiet eye on the ball. If it starts to become clear that Biden is in much poorer shape than expected and/or is detiorating quickly, there may come a time a rip cord is necessary.
That said, fantasy is NOT helpful here. If Biden goes, Harris should be up. Even if she decided not to pursue the big job herself (unlikely), she ought to be the chief campaigner for whoever the party winds up with. (If she decided to yield the role and nope out, the party should not back her for any role in the future whatsoever, but I don't see her shirking the party that way.)
If Biden and Harris were to both bow out (extremely unlikely), then the priority needs to coalesce on a replacement quickly. That means brokered in back rooms. Period. It probably means someone in the ideological mold of Biden, given that is less likely to spark defection of delegates chosen to support Biden. It also makes it easy for both Biden and Harris to endorse, and the whole effort would likely be sunk if they did not.
That's what a practical Plan B looks like. When I see a non-practical Plan B, my first question is whether they are really want the best bet to keep Trump out, or just want to play the lottery to see if their dream candidate can make it to the White House somehow. I am not in the mood for a trip to Vegas, to put it mildly.
Probably more important is what happens right now. Biden needs to put himself out there and give people more data points to operate from. Harris needs to get out there more, too. Now is to repeat the argument from 2020 that Harris is ready (especially after four years staying on deck and advising Biden) to step in, should the need arise. ("Unlike my opponent, I'm not looking to hang my VP of 4 years.") It might be smart for Biden to consider holding his nose and give the NYT the interview they've been jonesing for.
And Biden needs to do what it takes to perform well. That means rescheduling when necessary, and it means prioritizing so that he's adequately rested when he needs to perform. That might even mean deprioritizing governing a bit. If there were ever a time, "Before you save the world, you have to save your seat," were true, this would be it.
There's plenty of evidence that this is wrong. One obvious bit is if you look at the polling with Kennedy in it, he gets about 8% and Trump 45% (and Biden 47%). That's 55% that doesn't want to vote to vote for Trump, enough for a landslide win with the right candidate (not to mention all the folks who ignore RFK Jr and think the only way to vote against Biden is to vote for Trump). Another way to see it is to look at candidates like Beshear and Klobuchar, who do more than 20 points better than the democratic lean in their state. That means, if the R baseline is 50%, they bust it back to 40% repeatedly - the candidate does make a big difference. Beshear won the governor's seat in Kentucky, twice. What do you think the expected R vote in those races were?
No, it's Biden is our guy, and Biden has recognized that now is the time to pass the torch to a new generation, to continue building on all the great things Biden has done (Biden can even take credit for his clever decision to have an early debate as a measuring point for how best to proceed). Here's the process where we're going to gather the top rising stars in the Democratic party and give the American people a chance to help us pass the torch. Here's all the great things that these 5 have done for their home states, and that they are excited to bring to everyone across the country. We couldn't be more excited about bringing you this chance to get better acquainted with them and their exciting visions for the future of our great country...
The mushy middle and unreliable voters are exactly who we're going to get motivated and engaged by putting on a spectacle and having them feel a part of it. Have some actual excitement and drama in a political process, and bring the kind of people who have motivated the mushy middle successfully in their state elections (that's exactly how you do much better than the democratic lean in your state, as many of these folks have).
And the thing is Trump didn't look all that good either. At least Biden didn't have diarrhea chocked full of lies spewing out his mouth like Trump.
Biden was off but he wasn't acting demented or completely insane. Watch Trump.
Biden was off but he wasn't acting demented or completely insane. Watch Trump.
prediction: This or next week, Biden will have a big press conference of some sort with his cabinet by his side to say he is not dropping out and his cabinet is standing by his side to lead to his 2024 win. Any polling bounce from the debate will revert to pre-debate average within ~30 days from now.
The thing is, we are having this discussion because of Biden's awful debate performance...so awful that emergency maneuvers that would normally be off the table might be justified.
With that background, you are saying, "Yes,"...based on pre-debate polling numbers. Thes polls above aren't the only pre-debate numbers you are hammering either. (I'm not aware of any polls on would Democrats prefer another candidate since the debates; the ones I'm aware of are from the primary.)
I get the distinct impression you wanted your proposal before the debate, and are using the current exigency to make the case for it without much regard to the contours of that exigency.
Somehow, I doubt you'd entertain your own arguments if the candidate were one you liked better.
I am not so sure. I am seeing a surprising amount of people that I know literally in a stance now of not knowing if they want to vote this year or vote 3rd party. They were reluctant Biden supporters.
To some of them we are already in an existential crisis and if Trump gets in, to them, it'll not be different because they are not part of a marginalized group.
Trump marginalized every group except the greedy and xenophobic. But of course I don't have to persuade you.
I think Dems can have it both ways if they strongly emphasize the team. Make it clear that a vote for him is a vote for a competent, diverse bench that has accomplished a lot in four years, and that Biden is the glue that makes this team work so well. You can still bring out the rising stars for the public to get to know better, in the manner fil keeps suggesting, and make this about all of them, Biden included, against the antisocial menace that is Donald Trump. It's not far from what Democrats were going to do anyway, but instead of "Biden's the only one that can save us from Trump," which is vulnerable to character assassination, make it "Biden's team are the only ones who can save us from Trump." Turn them into a sort of Justice League. I'd like to think it would help compensate for the anxieties people have about putting all their faith in a single old man, and it would replace the potential for chaos with a positive, unifying narrative.
What discussion I can find about Trump's performance was surprisingly negative. Apparently even some members of the corporate media noticed the rambling discussions about "after birth abortion", "black and hispanic jobs", outright denying his affair with Stormy Daniels, and the constant fearmongering on immigration. It really feels like both candidates lost the debate.
Which immediately brings Kennedy to mind, but NPR had him on for an interview the day after the debate, and he managed to sound worse than Biden. Kennedy is what you get if you combine Trump's wackjob nonsense with Biden's debate performance.
You know what this thread sounds like to me? Trump laughing his ass off as he gets ready to win the last fair election in the United States.
The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
There's several things to consider here.
I don't have an answer. Hopefully our political memories are news cycle mayfly lifetime short, and we're on to something else next week. Joe hot-mics that Trump is a coward and a traitor on July 4. Who cares. My amygdala tickle in the back of my brain, though, fears we just watched one of those moments where one act by one man is the hinge upon which the world pivots. Nixon refusing makeup in his debate with JFK. Gavrillo Principe deciding he wasn't going to get to kill Franz Ferdinand and going for lunch instead. The Soviet colonel that insisted that America wouldn't fire only five nukes. And maybe, an old man with a stutter and a cold flubbing a public talk.
- Ballot access. Laws vary by state on how you can get on the ballot and when. The Heritage Foundation has already floated a balloon about full court press litigation attempting to block getting any replacement candidate on the ballot. Some states, the ballot is going to say "Joseph R Biden" even if he's dead. We could wind up in a position where a replacement can't get on certain swing ballots and depend on write ins, appear on others that potentially also have Biden's name on them, or in certain states just not appear at all.
- Joe Biden won't be alive in January 2029. The end. President, not president, retires to Bora Bora tomorrow, doesn't matter. He doesn't have another 4 1/2 years in him. He's headed downhill fast, and not just because the presidency sucks the life out of you like you quickly peek in the Ark of the Covenant every day. To some degree, voting for Biden knowing that is voting for someone you know cannot finish the job. It's saying you know someone else will be president, but because they're not running as such that you don't believe they can actually win the office.
- It doesn't matter who is in the Dem slot. Really and truly. What matters is that each and every person that knows what's at stake here doesn't stop communicating that to everyone else. Every chance you get, your parents, your children, your siblings, your partners, your friends, your coworkers it's appropriate to discuss politics with, all of them must be consistently reminded of the end goal: never, ever, never ever never never ever letting Donald Trump hold any position of power ever again. So if it's Biden, or the cop, or Biden's corpse being Weekend-At-Bernie'd by Kamala and Pete, or a literal steaming dog turd, they vote Democratic because it's the only vote against Trump that counts. It's pathetic we're this low, but that's the prize.
I don't have an answer. Hopefully our political memories are news cycle mayfly lifetime short, and we're on to something else next week. Joe hot-mics that Trump is a coward and a traitor on July 4. Who cares. My amygdala tickle in the back of my brain, though, fears we just watched one of those moments where one act by one man is the hinge upon which the world pivots. Nixon refusing makeup in his debate with JFK. Gavrillo Principe deciding he wasn't going to get to kill Franz Ferdinand and going for lunch instead. The Soviet colonel that insisted that America wouldn't fire only five nukes. And maybe, an old man with a stutter and a cold flubbing a public talk.
Well, the election is still months away. Its unlikely nothing will change between then.
The GOP openly intends to cheat via handpicked election officials and sympathetic courts, as well as the usual voter suppression and gerrymandering, so I don't know if 'fair' is exactly the right word here.
And, even if the election is judged to be fair—if it doesn't go Trump's way—is there any doubt he won't be fighting the results? What could unfold may make 1/6 look like a picnic by comparison.
I want to remind everyone again that we still have the very real possibility that the Biden campaign becomes the Harris campaign for reasons that have nothing to do with Biden's campaign performance. I'm disappointed in the screeching knee jerk, but I'm also disappointed that everyone continues to take Biden making it to convention and election day for granted.
Don't forget about the recordings of Biden's interview with Hur. People were angry about Hur's description of Biden as someone who would not be convicted by a jury due to his mental state... but given what we saw in the debate, that may have been entirely accurate. Republicans are still trying to make the recordings public. And now they have every incentive to delay the release until closer to the election when it will be devastating and too late to make any changes to the ticket.
No one takes Biden's continued survival for granted. To some degree we might take the system for granted, and in the event of Biden being unable to act as POTUS, that system would install Harris as POTUS, and she would then be the presumptive nominee (though there would still be party hoops to jump through I'm sure).
The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
A going concern for the last four years is that no one will accept the next outcome as valid. MAGAts will behave just as badly as last time over a Biden win. A Trump squeaker after years of ratfuckery would be vociferously opposed; if we really believe he's the end of the Republic then possibly just as violently as the Mad Hatters. I used to think a landslide would be needed, but I don't think that will stop it anymore. The GOP was always going to pitch a fit, and there might be enough of a mass of D-aligned people now that would believe any Trump victory means the fix was in.
I don't know where we go from there.
You don't think there will be massive protests if Trump wins the election? Talks of how electors can still vote for Biden "to save democracy"? Maybe some attempts to cast him as ineligible because of January 6th?
The Sheep Look Up
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Re-read, that's exactly my point. The GOP will forevermore deny the validity of any election they lose, and the Dems are falling into the same mindset regarding DJT. We're in a position where it's probable if not likely that every outcome will be contested.
Harris would not become the presumptive nominee if that happened before the convention, Biden's delegates would be released and it would be up to them how to vote. (after the convention things get bizarre, with Biden's name being printed on the ballots and Dems having to instruct the public to vote the Biden name meaning a vote for Harris/whoever_she_chooses).
Meanwhile, in the real world, Trump and his people are quaking in their boots over the prospect that the Dems might actually replace Biden now (https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-facing-pressure-drop-trump-002437893.html)
As was pointed out on other sites, where does the money for "Jonny/Joan Unbeatable" comes from? The only two nominees that can access the Biden-Harris war chest are Biden himself and Harris as his running mate. It cannot be released to just any rando whose name is not Biden or Harris that might get a nod from convention delegates.
a) If Biden actually agrees to drop out and a new process goes forward to select a nominee, that nominee would rake in funds that would dwarf anything Biden (or Trump) has done. The excitement would be palpable.
b) While I think you're correct the Biden can't outright transfer the funds to another campaign, as far as I know there's nothing stopping him from using those funds to support Democrats in general, including the competitors, and eventual winner, of the nomination. So it's not like those funds just disappear.
He looked his part. This is exactly why they vote for him.
Biden clearly displayed early/advancing signs of some type of dementia. Once you’ve seen it, you can’t mistake it for anything else. The excuse of a ‘cold’ doesn’t wash. Surely Biden wasn’t hopped up on cough medicine….
How can Dems put Biden in front of an open press pool, an unscripted interview, a totally randomized townhall?… it’s disaster waiting to happen. The debate was the most important opportunity to discredit Trump, it had record high viewership, there is no coming back from this.
I like the sound of Harris/Newsom. Of course, as both are from California that might not work well in the key swing states.
How can Dems put Biden in front of an open press pool, an unscripted interview, a totally randomized townhall?… it’s disaster waiting to happen. The debate was the most important opportunity to discredit Trump, it had record high viewership, there is no coming back from this.
I like the sound of Harris/Newsom. Of course, as both are from California that might not work well in the key swing states.
DNC held a damage control conference call including the following tidbits:
- Biden has no plans to step down
- in a hypothetical scenario where Biden did step down, the campaign war chest would (mostly) go to Kamala Harris
- Harris likely end up as the nominee
- "some donors even asked about having their contributions refunded"
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/jo...-keep-fighting-donors-alternatives-rcna159694
During a tense call with a group of about 40 of Biden’s top financial backers, campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez laid out what could and could not be done with the campaign’s infrastructure if Biden were to step aside while emphasizing throughout the call that he had no intention of doing so.
Most of the campaign’s significant war chest would fall to Vice President Kamala Harris, Chavez Rodriguez said, according to two people familiar with the discussion. Only a smaller pool of money would be kept by the Democratic National Committee.
As several donors posited what a participant derisively referred to as fanciful “West Wing”-type scenarios for replacing Biden, Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., who joined for part of the call, emphasized that the process would be “messy” and predicted that Harris would ultimately end up as the nominee.
First: The "Electorate" is everyone who is eligible to vote, not everyone who votes. In 2020, the total number of people in the US was ~331 million, but the total electorate was only ~240 million. Biden got 81 million; Trump got 74 million. So the voting Republicans represent only 30.8% of the electorate. Think of it as a little more than a third of the population votes D, a little less than a third of the population votes R, and the remaining ~third doesn't vote at all. When people get energized, more people vote on both sides, but Democrats benefit from higher turnout more than Republicans.
Second: It's entirely possible that 2020 was peak Trump, that he's not capable of hitting 74 million again. January 6 broke off a sizable number of non-Trumpist Republicans who had believed in him up until that point. Every following scandal, racist comment, and conviction has chipped away more people who had voted on him in the past.
I'm pegging Trump at ~60 million in 2024, plus or minus ten percent. I think Biden can beat that unless the electorate is disillusioned and depressed.
Don't forget the lessons of 2020: Harris had quite a large war chest then too, she was a good fundraiser. But things fell apart when she had to actually face the voters. When she dropped out of the race, without winning a single delegate, she was polling around 3% and had spent nearly all that money.
If the D's actually held a series of events to determine a winner, it's unlikely Harris would come out on top, despite any funding or initial name-recognition advantage. She's faced D primary voters before, and her performance was dismal. (And for those of you who seem to insist that she's popular with black voters just because she's black, remember that black voters are around 25% of the D primary voters and she was polling at 3% when she dropped out. )
All that said, it does seem like there's a lot of fear in the D inner circles about angering certain voters if Harris doesn't get special treatment. And it seems like there's a lot of fear in D inner circles, period, and that that fear may lead to paralysis rather than taking the kind of action that's needed. Not over yet though.
Also to note that back is May Ohio was in the news adding Biden to November's ballot. (Ohio requirement deadline for making the ballot is two week before the Democratic convention.) Are there any other ballots that would be disrupted swapping Biden/Harris out of the ballot slot at a late date?
Sigh. Not surprising, but it really sucks that if we do lose Biden one way or the other they probably just try to slot Harris in. For all that I may grump about how silly I think replacing Biden after debate one is, I do share fil's excitement at the idea of actually getting some new blood in the running. Having the DNC try to hand down the slot to a candidate I'm even less excited about than Biden pretty much kills that.
Plus, I'll admit, having to vote for Biden given the genocide he's arming does make my stomach churn and this would be a great chance for the Democratic party to pivot to a candidate who has some distance from the Biden administration's actions here and at a minimum strikes a slightly harder stance on pushing for better conduct and a cease fire when it comes to continuing to provide weapons. Wishful thinking perhaps, but at least one could dream of a silver lining to the chaos.
Plus, I'll admit, having to vote for Biden given the genocide he's arming does make my stomach churn and this would be a great chance for the Democratic party to pivot to a candidate who has some distance from the Biden administration's actions here and at a minimum strikes a slightly harder stance on pushing for better conduct and a cease fire when it comes to continuing to provide weapons. Wishful thinking perhaps, but at least one could dream of a silver lining to the chaos.
Yeah… this whole thing has me a wee bit worried that if Biden just dies, nobody is prepared with contingencies already. Clearly there’s no plan, other than pretending it’s not a problem, for dealing with Biden’s age-related decline in an orderly fashion. Which subsequently has me concerned that there’s no worthwhile plan for dealing with natural causes. Because if there were a plan for the latter, it could just as well be a plan for the former with minor modification. So, I’m left to assume that if he drops dead we’ll all be told Biden’s corpse is our only shot at beating Trump, so just not to bring it up.
Not demented. He was acting desperate to keep the focus on anything but his crimes. That's why he kept harping back on giant waves of immigrants are coming for our daughters and evading the Jan 6 question.
I think you're not giving party leadership enough credit. The people who matter are saying Biden is their guy, full stop. That doesn't mean there isn't contingency plans in place. I imagine whatever plans they have are being kept incredibly close to the vest. There can't be any debate about who their guy is not just now but any election. If it got out that, say, Newsom agreed to be the replacement that would cause havoc with the campaign whether he ends up the candidate by November or not.
If Biden steps down or dies, you can bet your bottom dollar a replacement will be named on the spot. In fact I bet Biden himself has a written or filmed policy ready for release the day it's needed. However until that day comes there will be zero discussion about it.
Its definitely a dilemma for them. They cant undermine Biden as long as he is still running but the risk looking like they are in denial or engaged in gaslighting if they persist against increasingly negative public perception.
I like your thinking here. A Harris candidacy is basically a clean slate.
It's not, though. This is an incumbency run. If Biden stepped down tomorrow and Harris was put in his place (either as the President or the Democratic candidate for the Presidency), she's not going to toss out Biden's Cabinet. She's already been working with them for several years, and replacing them necessarily means a loss of efficiency. I can see her replacing a few Cabinet members after she's sworn in, but she'll keep the majority of Biden's Cabinet, if only to keep things running smoothly.
Don't expect a shake-up when the people currently in power don't feel the need for one.