The Fall of a Republic? Perpetual French Political thread

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Dr Nno

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  • #121
    Yesterday, the first debate took place. But between that and my mental health, I chose my mental health, and played bass instead of watching TV. I know who will get my vote, and I can't see myself suddenly becoming proto-fascist or pro-business.

    Reports this morning found the format of the debate a bit confusing, with 3 people interrupting each other quite frequently. Bompard (New Popular Union) was attacked on the financing of their social measures, Bardella (Rassemblement National) on the anti-immigration measures and their backpedaling on some promises, especially on retirement age, and Attal (current Premier) was asked why their party did nothing for 7 years. They all succeeded in countering the attacks, with various level of success. Bompard for example mentioned that Bardella's Italian ancestors would not have been accepted in france if Bardella's political ancestors had been in charge.

    In the meantime, Les Républicains is still fracturing. Judges couldn't decide who is the owner of the logo between the president Ciotti and the historical leaders, so it's impossible to know if you're voting just for LR or the alliance LR-RN.

    I've heard a pundit this morning who summarized the situation interestingly. This time, people are voting only with their emotions. The timing of the elections (forced equally by a summer heavy with Events, and Macron's whim) does not let anyone build a valid campaign, either on the political leaders' side or the voters' side. The French will vote for the party or leader they hate the less, because hate is the strongest feeling, and apparently the last one we have in our political landscape. Cue Johnny Cash's Hurt.

    Edit: a quick summary of the debate in English
     
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    Dr Nno

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  • #122
    SuinusLatinus said:
    On the other hand, being wealthy makes you less corruptible. IMO, it's not the wealth that's the problem, it's the mindset linked to it. If you got wealthy by being corrupt, you'll continue so. Even if you weren't corrupt, maybe it gets to your head and you see yourself as being inherently better, more worthy and intelligent, than anyone else, and that leads you to taking stupid, harmful decisions.
    Click to expand...
    If one's rich (let's say top 1% earner, real millionaire with the corresponding lifestyle), they either inherited their money, or they worked to earn it. Wealthy heirs have no sense of the worth of money, or work, or people, so they are disqualified for any political role. If they earned their wealth, they probably have that mindset you mention, and this should be disqualifying too. If you are people-oriented, empathetic, and aware of the complexity of the world, you won't try to screw people for their money, and you'll never be rich. But you may be become a good leader. And I also apply my reasoning to anyone seeking power and political leadership. Those who seek power should be the last to yield it.
     
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    Yagisama

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  • #123
    After a while wealth accumulation becomes a game, a sort of competition. The UK election betting didn't happen because they really needed the paltry earnings, it was a kind of in-group game. Like they were playing polo in a private club. The zeal to win probably contributes to being susceptible to corruption, and most probably think they're above the rules anyway.
     
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  • #124
    Auguste_Fivaz said:
    I am going to make a generalization, the rich are crazy, all of them, greed is a stunning corrupter. No politician should be worth as much as Trump, Sunak, Macron, and a few others and hold office. Once their personal wealth exceeds some limit, they need to step aside while in office, re: Orban, Putin, Modi. And, I want everyone to have a pony ...
    Click to expand...
    SuinusLatinus said:
    On the other hand, being wealthy makes you less corruptible. IMO, it's not the wealth that's the problem, it's the mindset linked to it. If you got wealthy by being corrupt, you'll continue so. Even if you weren't corrupt, maybe it gets to your head and you see yourself as being inherently better, more worthy and intelligent, than anyone else, and that leads you to taking stupid, harmful decisions.
    Click to expand...
    Frankly, IMO wealth / greed doesn't play that much of a role in Macron's profile. His parents are medics, so he doesn't have humble origins, but wasn't born in the 1% neither. There aren't many monetary corruption scandals linked to Macron, or at least I don't recall anything as egregious as Sarkozy's scandals (caveat: I'm also Brazilian, so the bar for "many corruption scandals" might be set a bit too high for me ...).

    One can point to corruption via influence trafficking, with all the consulting firms playing a role in his government. But even that can be "justified" by an opinion on how a government should work (which is completely a bad take, but that is besides the point).

    What plays a role on his behavior is a mentality of "I'm the only one capable of fixing this place", fueled by his education and professional background, and the context on how he gained power:

    He studied at an institution that was essentially created to form high level public administrators, and which is the alma mater of many French politicians. This education institution was heavily criticized for forming an administrative elite that's closed inside its own bubble and completely oblivious of the population's problems and part of a revolving door with banks and large corporations. And Macron fits the description completely, having only worked as a public administrator and as an associate manager at Rothschild.

    Macron was elected out of nowhere in 2017, without being really aligned (at the time) with either the left or the right, and receiving the votes of everyone in the second round to block LePen. Seeing as this worked, he pushed hard (and successfully) to create the same scenario in 2022, after alienating his voters on the left.

    People were already pointing in 2017, or even before that, of the risk of elector fatigue from always having to choose between the far right and someone they don't like. But, since he's a prime example of a politician in his own elite administrator bubble, he """just""" closed his eyes to this.
     
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  • #125
    Dr Nno said:
    [...] Those who seek power should be the last to yield it.
    Click to expand...
    I agree with what you said. This last part made me remind of a short sci-fi story (by A. C. Clarke IIRC) where, in some remote planet, the human settlers had created a lottery system where every year, an advanced software picked, from everyone elegible in the colony, the least ambitious, power-hungry individual to be the president of the colony until the next "election". Everyone dreaded being chosen because it was seen as a massive chore but it was a civic duty, like having to serve in the armed forces or jury duty. It was a perfect system but, of course, it depended on the existence of that really good, fed with perfect data, bug-free, unhackable, software. In the end of the story, it was suggested that some, more ambitious, fellow, had found a way to subvert it...
     
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  • #126
    SuinusLatinus said:
    I agree with what you said. This last part made me remind of a short sci-fi story (by A. C. Clarke IIRC) where, in some remote planet, the human settlers had created a lottery system where every year, an advanced software picked, from everyone elegible in the colony, the least ambitious, power-hungry individual to be the president of the colony until the next "election". Everyone dreaded being chosen because it was seen as a massive chore but it was a civic duty, like having to serve in the armed forces or jury duty. It was a perfect system but, of course, it depended on the existence of that really good, fed with perfect data, bug-free, unhackable, software. In the end of the story, it was suggested that some, more ambitious, fellow, had found a way to subvert it...
    Click to expand...
    The book was "The Songs of Distant Earth."
     
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    wco81

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  • #128
    Is there any discussion of the demographics challenges which France and Europe face as a counter to all the anti-immigration rhetoric?

    Europe is going to depopulate, as all developed countries including China are in the process of experiencing. Only thing preventing steeper declines in working age population is immigration, usually from developing countries whose populations have higher growth rates, i.e. more children.

    How do they fund the social safety net with a shrinking population? These social programs are still broadly popular? But how do you keep funding them without faster population growth or high taxes from the same or smaller number of workers?
     
    Dr Nno

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  • #129
    Well, the discussion of immigration is not more developed than "Barbaric Islamic immigrants are bad and should be put back in their boats", so the demographic aspects fly 10 thousands feet above the general voting population. Only the Left is almost touching on this, by arguing that we need immigrants because they are currently used as a workforce for farming, construction, and cleaning services. If they leave, who will take their hard jobs?
     
    LizandreBZH

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  • #130
    Immigrants for most far right parties are like the mythical monster under the bed. It makes good stories but they don't buy what they sell. See Giorgia Meloni in Italy who decided to welcome 400 000 immigrants because it was good for the economy.
    In france, one RN député was revealed to have a lot of foreign workers tilling his vines. One of the answer given to the farmers demonstrations earlier this year was to streamline work visas for North Africans...

    The anti immigrant mantra is for the low information voter, addicted to TikTok or the French foxnews (Cnews). Some token measure to "punish" immigrants and then, business as usual because the "patronat" likes their paperless workers very much. Corvéables à merci.
     
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  • #131
    Governments have largely failed to manage immigration. When you have population growth, particularly when it happens quickly (as with refugees coming in), there need to be policies in place that allow for housing construction and expansion of public transit. You need more government employees who can process asylum requests, work permits, etc. We've seen the absence of all of this, creating real problems. Calling people racists is lazy because it denies those problems.

    Switzerland has been experiencing brawls between different groups of Eritreans. Those who have been in the country for a long time and are supportive of the regime, and those who have arrived as refugees to escape that regime. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/swiss-police-eritreans-clash/74804864

    Police intervened with water cannons and tear gas to prevent the situation from escalating in the commune of Gerlafingen.

    According to a statement released late last night by cantonal law enforcement, 350 supporters of Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki were gathered at a restaurant in Gerlafingen for a party. Armed with stones, iron bars and sticks, about 180 of their compatriots, who are critical of the ruling regime, went to the venue to disrupt the event.
    Click to expand...

    And no amount of immigration will fix France's pension obligations. A Ponzi scheme very quickly hits a limit when it can no longer recruit additional members. After all, immigrants aren't going to leave when it's their turn to retire.
     
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    Auguste_Fivaz

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  • #132
    The Guardian European edition has quite a lot of commentary on the elections. I snipped this from the "This is Europe" newsletter they publish weekly. I can't find the full text to link to:

    A shortish distance behind will be an uneasy leftwing alliance dominated by the radical insurrectionists of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's Unbowed France (LFI). And trailing a distant third will be Ensemble, the party of president Emmanuel Macron.

    In half the country's 577 constituencies, voters will be contemplating a scary second-round choice: option one, a cosmetically detoxified far-right party still widely seen, as Angelique Chrisafis explains, as descended from collaborationist Vichy France.

    Option two, a cobbled-together leftist coalition viewed by many more moderate left-leaning and centrist voters as equally, if not more, unpalatable due to LFI's radicalism, perceived antisemitism and Mélenchon's domineering, abrasive ego.

    It is for many, as Paul Taylor wrote, a choice between la peste et le choléra – a rock and a hard place. What it will yield in terms of the next assembly is, given the vagaries of second-round runoffs, impossible to precisely predict, but the broad outcome is clear: chaos.
    Click to expand...
    The mention of Vichy is a first for me, but the Chrisafis column linked above does elaborate on how that came about, which is, as has been pointed out here, a generational load, bad for us who remember, meh for those of us who don't.

    www.theguardian.com

    European Commission warns France over fiscal rules as election looms

    Decision to launch ‘excessive deficit procedure’ sets up collision course with post-election government
    www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
     
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  • #133
    Auguste_Fivaz said:
    The Guardian European edition has quite a lot of commentary on the elections. I snipped this from the "This is Europe" newsletter they publish weekly. I can't find the full text to link to:


    The mention of Vichy is a first for me, but the Chrisafis column linked above does elaborate on how that came about, which is, as has been pointed out here, a generational load, bad for us who remember, meh for those of us who don't.

    www.theguardian.com

    European Commission warns France over fiscal rules as election looms

    Decision to launch ‘excessive deficit procedure’ sets up collision course with post-election government
    www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
    Click to expand...

    Ooh. That turn of phase is interesting.

    “The choice between bubonic plague and cholera.”

    That’s so much worse than “a rock and a hard place.”
     
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    Dr Nno

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  • #135
    Reminder of the rules before Sunday's vote.

    577 local elections take place at the same time, each one sending 1 député to the Assemblée Nationale, the lower chamber of our Parliament. This is a 2-turns election system, first turn weeds the field, 2nd turn selects the winner, with a week of political negotiations at the national and local level between the 2. Any party/alliance reaching 289 has a majority and its leader will get to be Premier Ministre, becoming the official Head of State for the country. If the President id from a different party, he will be basically ignored until the next election.

    There is no proportional voting at any level, each circonscription is effectively its own adventure. Any number of candidates can declare themselves for the first turn, and in our current case, there won't be too many of them, because the usual parties have already aggregated in 3 blocs.

    Sunday night, you have 50% + 1 vote? You're elected! No second turn for your circonsciption, and you send a strong signal to your national opponents if you're some kind of political leader, like a Premier or his Ministers, or a presidential hopeful. You don't reach that threshold? Welcome to the second turn, but only if you're in the top 2, plus candidates with 12.5% of the counted votes, that represent at least 25% of the registered voters. And that's important today.

    Historically, this kind of election, where the Far-Right reached the second turn, was "easy". The other parties gracefully called for voting for the best non-RN candidate, and voters just followed that call. That was what we called the "republican Dam". The RN was considered non-republican, as the proto-fascists that they are. And the only tough situations were when 3 candidates were reaching the second turn (a "triangular" election), because if no official agreement is reached between the republican parties, the RN win. But today, the RN is only considered non-republican by some, and Mélenchon's LFI is additionally considered non-republican by some. During last election in 2022, this almost broke the dam, but only 7 circonscriptions were such battlefields, as the turnout was low (and few candidates reached that 25% threshold).

    The projected turnout is 63% (which is awesome, go vote people!), so many more candidates will reach the 25% threshold, which will create triangular elections. And in such a second turn, if one of the candidates is from Mélenchon's LFI, the risk is that there is fewer calls to set up this republican dam, and the RN candidates will win much more seats that their current 88 députés (I twitch whenever I see that number).
    As an example of what turnout is expected, the expats already voted today, and 410k votes were counted, instead of the 250k during the last election.

    Latest poll from IPSOS:
    Far right RN (+ dissident LR) 36%
    Left NFP 29%
    Presidential Center 19%
    Historical Right 9%

    The pollsters currently don't even try to estimate the results in number of députés per bloc. This will have to wait after the first turn.
     
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  • #136
    Dr Nno said:
    Historically, this kind of election, where the Far-Right reached the second turn, was "easy". The other parties gracefully called for voting for the best non-RN candidate, and voters just followed that call.
    Click to expand...
    Many of the NPF parties - the greens, the socialists and the communists - already declared that they'll do it if they arrive in third place in a triangulaire. LFI / Mélenchon called for the "republican dam" against the far right, but they will wait to see the results of the first round before setting their stance.

    ---

    There's a small "brouhaha" going on after Marine Le Pen said yesterday that the president's role as the head of the armed forces is an "honorary role", since it's the prime minister that controls the budget. While the prime minister can politically impose conditions on the mobilization of the troops, the constitution is pretty clear on saying that the president has the power over the armed forces.

    This is yet another attempt by the national rally to test the waters, see where there's resistance and push the boundaries.

    ---

    The Guardian has a nice article on the elections, making parallels and pointing differences between the far right in the US and France (the author is American and lives in France) and analyzing the fake nationalist of these movements.

    ---

    There were some discussions on this before, but it's still mind boggling that, at the same time, it feels like some parts of the population are feeling free to being openly racist (mainly against African and Muslim immigrants), and antisemitism became a major talking point in the discussions.
     
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    LizandreBZH

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  • #138
    breubreubreu said:
    Many of the NPF parties - the greens, the socialists and the communists - already declared that they'll do it if they arrive in third place in a triangulaire. LFI / Mélenchon called for the "republican dam" against the far right, but they will wait to see the results of the first round before setting their stance.

    ---

    There's a small "brouhaha" going on after Marine Le Pen said yesterday that the president's role as the head of the armed forces is an "honorary role", since it's the prime minister that controls the budget. While the prime minister can politically impose conditions on the mobilization of the troops, the constitution is pretty clear on saying that the president has the power over the armed forces.

    This is yet another attempt by the national rally to test the waters, see where there's resistance and push the boundaries.

    ---

    The Guardian has a nice article on the elections, making parallels and pointing differences between the far right in the US and France (the author is American and lives in France) and analyzing the fake nationalist of these movements.

    ---

    There were some discussions on this before, but it's still mind boggling that, at the same time, it feels like some parts of the population are feeling free to being openly racist (mainly against African and Muslim immigrants), and antisemitism became a major talking point in the discussions.
    Click to expand...
    Antisemitism is used to attack anti Israeli government opinions. Meanwhile, the party that has actual nazis, is chosen by some quite old jewish intellectuals who don't even try to hide their muslim and Arab racism. "La vieillesse est un naufrage"
     
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  • #139
    breubreubreu said:
    Oh, and also, you'd be forgiven if you forgot that the Paris Olympic Games will start in less than a month. The matter simply disappeared from the headlines.
    Click to expand...
    That’s the one where they didn’t install air conditioning and all the rich countries bought free standing units for their athletes? Perfect metaphor for the degrowth movement. Misery for the poor, business as usual for the rich — but now with a competitive edge.
     
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    Dr Nno

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  • #140
    Voting day!

    Registered voters in France 49,339,714
    Registered voters in my circonscription (Hérault 9th) 91,085 (estimated)
    In my small voting location (around 1200 voters), there was a 10 persons line at 8:30 AM, 30 minutes after the location was opened. Encouraging turnout for sure.

    I did my part of the job, let the rest of the voters do the same and let's wait for the results.

    Most voting places close at 18:00, big cities close at 19:00 or 20:00. to give us the results, the pollsters have selected a bunch of strategic voting locations, deemed as representative of the entire country. Those results will be collected as soon as possible and treated for a release at 20:00. That will be the trend for the night, adjusted when real results from the cities come in. In general, this method favors the Right at first, and the Left improves its score when the more urban circonscriptions send their real results.

    This will give a global result as a percentage of voters for each bloc, and a few elected députés who reached the 50% threshold. Then the pollsters will work with the real results of each circonscription to evaluate the future composition of the Assemblée. The real fun will begin tomorrow with a 5-days campaign that will decide the fate of the country.
     
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  • #142
    A voté!

    So, during the EU parliament elections, the electoral officers asked if I wanted to help count the votes. I had something later, so I said "maybe next time", thinking that it would be in 2 years or so ... not three weeks ...

    Gonna do that today. Last time, the whole table went silent when we got 5 votes for LePen back to back. I don't think that their candidate will go to the second round, but it'll be a bit more than 5 votes this time ...
     
    arcite

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  • #146
    The turnout numbers are looking like a blowout. French news reporting people delayed holidays and summer vacations to vote instead. So...I suspect either this will be very good, or very very bad for Macron. Hopefully some of that Olympic Magic rubbed off....and enough people remembered the Vichy regime during WWII were actually the baddies.
     
    baba264

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  • #151
    First estimations of the results, on a national level :
    RN (far right) : between 33 to 34%
    NFP (lef) : between 28 to 31.5%
    Ens (center right - presidential party) : 19 to 23%

    It is however important to note that, due to the way these elections work, those results will not translate in similar results for the number of elected representatives. It does however prove the importance of the mobilization of the RN and the number of their electors.
     
    baba264

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  • #156
    Dr Nno said:
    Mélenchon declared that in case of a triangular election where the Left is in third place, the New Popular Front will systematically remove their candidate. The republican dam in its purest form.

    Your move Macron. Will you let the RN win?
    Click to expand...
    Bayrou declared that they would only do so for "republican and democratic" candidates, and would look case by case, for which ones would fit the bill (so not LFI but maybe the PS and Ecologists). So they continue their strategy to stigmatize the left rather than make a unified front against the far right.
     
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  • #158
    Dr Nno said:
    Mélenchon declared that in case of a triangular election where the Left is in third place, the New Popular Front will systematically remove their candidate. The republican dam in its purest form.

    Your move Macron. Will you let the RN win?
    Click to expand...
    I don't often agree with Mélenchon, but in this case, I think he's right. Macron created this mess with his call for snap elections and his party came in a distant third. If he really wants "clarification", he should remove his candidate to make it pure battle between left and right.
     
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  • #159
    About what was expected. Will be interesting to see what happens during the next round. I don’t think the RN will get a majority, I think we might see a dam.

    But it’s clear that Macron won’t have any power at all and if the RN don’t have any real power this term, it’s Madame President Le Pen in 2027.

    Goddamn f’in cocky idiot.
     
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  • #160
    elliptic said:
    I don't often agree with Mélenchon, but in this case, I think he's right. Macron created this mess with his call for snap elections and his party came in a distant third. If he really wants "clarification", he should remove his candidate to make it pure battle between left and right.
    Click to expand...
    Unfortunately I suspect there is a greater chance of Macron declaring that the left is conspiring to make him lose than that he'll remove his party's candidates.
     
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