Perpetual UK Politics Thread Part Two

Genome

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Since they had no knowledge about when an election was going to be held, it’s deeply concerning that so many politicians seem to have a gambling problem.

Betting on things like the results in the Euros or who will win Wimbledon, I can understand that to some degree. But such a specific thing like the timing of an election? Surely this calls for an intervention?

(/s of course)
 

Mat8iou

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The other parties have used the electoral roll data unquestioned, carrying forward the same error.
I doubt any of them take the time to look at it - they are just given a big CSV file in a password protected zip file and assume it is correct. Doing anything other than give it a cursory look involved more time than their volunteers have to spend on it.

I can't figure out why the Greens are wastefully sending the same thing multiple times; but the irony is palpable.
Could it be because you are near the administrative boundary and so are caught in two different areas? It shouldn't be the case, but I can easily see how there could be confusion. In Slough for instance the constituency boundary changed and ate off two electoral wards from the local authority. Around the same time though, the ward boundaries were being re-assessed, so the new constituency boundary doesn't match the current electoral ward boundaries. With new constituency boundaries, it could be that some of the data is still not correct.

It surprised me that the local Conservatives seem to be the administratively competent ones. It doesn't fit with the national picture.
Random luck I suspect.
 

CommanderJameson

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Compare and contrast:

Sunak when faced with betting shenanigans by one of his candidates: nearly two weeks of fucking about, endless “ooh can’t talk about it, ongoing investigation”, eventually gets around to withdrawing support, provides endless and 100% reliable fodder for people who want to make “Sunak is fucking shit at politics” their story.

Starmer when faced with betting shenanigans by one of his candidates: immediately withdraws support, immediately commits to returning said candidate’s £100K donation, makes it quite clear that The Hammer Of Keir will fall on anyone else doing the same.

 
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There's something about being in power a long time that just breeds a weird complacency and tone deafness. Witness what happened with the expenses scandal, where the positions were pretty much reversed. Brown was seen as dithering and Cameron, desperate to put the sleaze days behind him, took very firm positions, even if it may not have worked out that way in practice once they were in power.
 

Aleamapper

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Compare and contrast:

Sunak when faced with betting shenanigans by one of his candidates: nearly two weeks of fucking about, endless “ooh can’t talk about it, ongoing investigation”, eventually gets around to withdrawing support, provides endless and 100% reliable fodder for people who want to make “Sunak is fucking shit at politics” their story.

Starmer when faced with betting shenanigans by one of his candidates: immediately withdraws support, immediately commits to returning said candidate’s £100K donation, makes it quite clear that The Hammer Of Keir will fall on anyone else doing the same.

Editors at conservative newspapers wondering whether 'woke Starmer virtue signalling over gambling' is a headline they can get away with
 

pauli

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Looking at aggregate polling data (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ and https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726 for instance), what jumps out at me is that Reform isn't just feeding off of the Conservatives - it's also growing as Labour's share shrinks. It's a reminder that Labour is winning in this election by default, not on their own merits, and should probably be a bit more pro-active.

On the other hand, https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...ives-labour-an-expected-majority-of-280-seats shows only a small fraction of the labour votes doing directly to Reform, as everyone apparently plays musical chairs.
 
Is there any discussion about the overall ideologies of the parties?

John Oliver summarized 15 years of Conservative Party rule as crushing austerity.

Did the voters at any time consciously get to choose to cut back all sorts of programs in exchange for presumably no tax increases or even tax cuts?

Was Osborne a popular figure when he was Chancellor or since? Did Cameron, Osborne and to a lesser extent Clegg lean into austerity at the time?

Does the electorate link or blame the current state of the UK to these policies started 10-15 years ago or is it mainly BJ, Truss and Sunak and the party bearing the brunt of the discontent?

If not for the swift market reaction to Truss channeling Laffer and AEI, would the voters have rejected her program?
 

Mat8iou

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I think Reform has that wrapped up.
What has happened with Lawrence Fox's Reclaim Party? Despite representing the Silent Majority™, He doesn't appear to be standing (although he chucked money at a few Tory candidates).

In Slough there is also a Heritage Party candidate - as far as I can work out, they are UKIP splitters. Policies the same as UKIP with the addition of being anti-vaxers.
 

Mat8iou

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Looking at aggregate polling data (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ and https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726 for instance), what jumps out at me is that Reform isn't just feeding off of the Conservatives - it's also growing as Labour's share shrinks. It's a reminder that Labour is winning in this election by default, not on their own merits, and should probably be a bit more pro-active.

On the other hand, https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...ives-labour-an-expected-majority-of-280-seats shows only a small fraction of the labour votes doing directly to Reform, as everyone apparently plays musical chairs.
I think a fair bit of what goes on with the percentages at this stage is down to Don't Know (or pretending not to know) people deciding who they will vote for, along with how the different polling companies treat the Don't Knows,
 

Mat8iou

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Is there any discussion about the overall ideologies of the parties?
I feel that this side of things has been really lacking. I don;t feel that there is any coverage of the underlying ideological drive between the main parties (whether this is stated by the parties or not). It seems to be far more about personalities and sometimes fairly minor policy announcements. Often the things that really make a difference to peoples lives are not on the manifestos - wars, pandemics, other natural disasters etc. You want to know how the party leaders and their core team are going to be able to deal (or not) with such things that could affect you far more than a tweak to the tax code. I see relatively little looking at this sort of thing though.

Did the voters at any time consciously get to choose to cut back all sorts of programs in exchange for presumably no tax increases or even tax cuts?
It was something )as a general approach) pushed by all the main parties in the run up to the 2010 election - but they all managed to avoid actually talking about it in any detail. It was kind of the elephant in the room that people knew was coming, but didn't know what form it would take.
The way they pushed a lot of the responsibility for implementation onto local councils reminded me a bit of how the Tories originally marketed the Poll Tax - as a way of hitting back at reckless local authorities.

This article hints at the scale of it. They all had some specified and some unspecified cuts. I think the reality though was that there was relatively little scope for how unspecified cuts could be distributed. Once you had ring-fenced certain budgets and looked at essential services that could not be cut further, there is a limit to what could be done.


This set of charts gives a good indication of what was specified or unspecified, but is IMHO an absolutely dreadful representation as a comparison of policy, as each circle is kept at an identical size.

1719446220311.png

Here's my very quick attempt to better represent it based on that data.

1719446357368.png

IMHO a big problem was how it was portrayed - Cameron described it as an end to an age of irresponsibility - as though the financial crisis had been caused by pay rises to nurses etc and not by reckless decisions made by banks globally. OTOH, Labour is keen to forget that they had similar ideas for big cuts to help reduce the deficit at that time.

Was Osborne a popular figure when he was Chancellor or since? Did Cameron, Osborne and to a lesser extent Clegg lean into austerity at the time?
I don't think he was ever that popular (maybe among the party faithful he was).

He always came across as wealthy and entitled. That said, I've heard long interviews with him where he comes across very differently. I've also seen people who follow him closely saying he id very adept at changing who he is (or at least who he wants people to think he is). Up until 2016, I think he thought he was set to be the next PM after Cameron and since then I feel that a lot has been looking at ways that he can build a legacy - something positive that he can be remembered for.
 
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JimCampbell

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You want to know how the party leaders and their core team are going to be able to deal (or not) with such things that could affect you far more than a tweak to the tax code.
TBH, for all my lack of enthusiasm for Starmer's incarnation of the Labour Party, I'm broadly confident that his front bench would make a better job of something like a pandemic than Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their attendant hangers-on. Starmer, at least, seems to value the idea of public service which makes me cautiously optimistic that a Labour government will be at least marginally better than the self-serving Tory shitshow we've endured for the last decade and a half.
 

Mat8iou

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TBH, for all my lack of enthusiasm for Starmer's incarnation of the Labour Party, I'm broadly confident that his front bench would make a better job of something like a pandemic than Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their attendant hangers-on. Starmer, at least, seems to value the idea of public service which makes me cautiously optimistic that a Labour government will be at least marginally better than the self-serving Tory shitshow we've endured for the last decade and a half.
Dull but competent and playing by the same rules as everyone else seems to be what they are aiming for. At other times this might not work, as it is hardly inspirational, but like you said, the context makes it an appealing prospect to many.
 
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Up here in t’north there has been zero mailings to us so far, our address is pretty unconventional, no house number, no street name, just a a farm name and a village and postcode.

We also have a boundary change, which puts us in a brand new constituency.

While local village sentiment is that we have an interesting choice of candidates, the only one I’ve met is Tim Norman, it could be an interesting fight.
 

Mat8iou

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Up here in t’north there has been zero mailings to us so far, our address is pretty unconventional, no house number, no street name, just a a farm name and a village and postcode.

We also have a boundary change, which puts us in a brand new constituency.

While local village sentiment is that we have an interesting choice of candidates, the only one I’ve met is Tim Norman, it could be an interesting fight.
One issue that varies a bit depending on party will be how their local branches are organised. AFAIK, most are grouped on a local authority basis because 1. Local council elections are generally more frequent (either every 4 years, or 3 years out of every 4). 2. Local authority boundaries tend not to change that often. 3. If building support for a party, the starting point tends to be at a local council level first, before targetting it as a winnable parliamentary seat.
This can cause a problem with parliamentary elections though, where constituencies cross local authority areas. In theory it will be the team who are based in that local authority volunteering there, maybe assisted by the team from the LA where the constituency is mainly in. It can vary though.
Most local parties are grouped regionally - often on the regions that used to be used in the European Parliamentary elections (these regions are also used for other statistical purposes). If a constituency crosses regions though, there may not be so many communication channels between regions to deal with this (around where I used to live, Hertfordshire fell into East of England and Buckinghamshire was in the South East). Any cross over with the London boundary also tends not to happen much as within London parties have their own separate organisational structure.

That said, if you are in an area seen as safe by a party then you may not get much literature - as they prefer to spend their money in the more marginal areas. Every party gets the opportunity for a freepost leaflet delivered by Royal Mail, but the cost of printing these for a whole constituency is not cheap - so parties may decide their resources are better spent. Particularly parties like the Greens may have pretty much tried to target just 4 or 5 constituencies nationally - possibly with the addition of other places where they have councillors or have a serious chance of getting councillors, where it is seen as boosting general party awareness.

LOL at the fact you are one of the areas that still has an SDP candidate. a bit like the remaining Liberals who refused to be part of the Liberal SDP merger into the Lib Dems in the late '80s, they tend to have drifted in some fairly odd directions since then. This guy seems to be anti-EU and reposting articles by Matt Goodwin for instance.
 
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warmachine

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Complete lack of proof reading and basic understanding of English punctuation / grammar from the Tory Candidate in Somerset and Frome.
The typo is amusing though as it appears to be an example of the very thing the sentence refers to.
View attachment 84050
All local party associations have a few, studious, teenage members who'd cheerfully be sub-editors. Somerset is a Tory stronghold and volunteers should be plentiful. Morale must be through the floor. Also, presumably you mean Frome and East Somerset as Somerset and Frome doesn't exist anymore.
 
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Demento

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In terms of mailings, it's been entirely LibDems and nothing else. And to be fair, it's quite unlikely the result will be anything other than the same.

Labour councillors have made inroads in a traditionally not-Labour-at-all area, but they're perceived (rightly or wrongly) as Corbynites by Head Office and so they parachuted in a candidate from the other end of London with no local input. Which may be a strategic choice to just let the LDs win here. The current Tory MP only came in in 2019 after 20 years of returning an LD MP, and really doesn't stand a chance. He's not an awful bloke, but in over his head in the "local MP doing local things" stakes that the LDs are so good at. Doesn't respond to questions he doesn't like the answer to, and his requests for opinions are always thinly veiled data collection exercises. Team Orange even rolled out the old MP, who was well liked before the Boris/Brexit election, to say how great New Guy will be.
 
LOL at the fact you are one of the areas that still has an SDP candidate. a bit like the remaining Liberals who refused to be part of the Liberal SDP merger into the Lib Dems in the late '80s, they tend to have drifted in some fairly odd directions since then. This guy seems to be anti-EU and reposting articles by Matt Goodwin for instance.

I also have an SDP candidate, and oddly no Reform candidate this time given that they'd probably take second round our way if they had one this year.

The SDP have gone a bit nonlinear I think. they're trying to out-right Reform on immigration and "sovereignty" and out-left Lenin on nationalisation. At the same time.
 
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Mat8iou

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In terms of mailings, it's been entirely LibDems and nothing else. And to be fair, it's quite unlikely the result will be anything other than the same.

Labour councillors have made inroads in a traditionally not-Labour-at-all area, but they're perceived (rightly or wrongly) as Corbynites by Head Office and so they parachuted in a candidate from the other end of London with no local input. Which may be a strategic choice to just let the LDs win here. The current Tory MP only came in in 2019 after 20 years of returning an LD MP, and really doesn't stand a chance. He's not an awful bloke, but in over his head in the "local MP doing local things" stakes that the LDs are so good at. Doesn't respond to questions he doesn't like the answer to, and his requests for opinions are always thinly veiled data collection exercises. Team Orange even rolled out the old MP, who was well liked before the Boris/Brexit election, to say how great New Guy will be.
Carshalton and Wallington?
 

Mat8iou

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I also have an SDP candidate, and oddly no Reform candidate this time given that they'd probably take second round our way if they had one this year.

The SDP have gone a bit nonlinear I think. they're trying to out-right Reform on immigration and "sovereignty" and out-left Lenin on nationalisation. At the same time.
I think the the people who decide to go it alone rather than be part of any merger of the majority of people in a group will always have been a bit at the fringes of that group. I get how it may make sense in the immediate aftermath of a merger, when you are not sure how it will play out - but to still be out trying to do your own thing in a UK voting system that rarely rewards this must take a certain type of person who is deliberately trying to be different.

I know a few places that thought they had a reform candidate and then didn't. I suspect a fair number either pulled out quote late in the day or were dropped by the party, I imagine even getting the nominations done correctly could be a bit of a struggle though for a party that basically has no local infrastructure anywhere, as there are a lot of potential things that could go wrong on the nomination forms if you had no prior experience of them.
 

JimCampbell

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I know a few places that thought they had a reform candidate and then didn't.
We've got one, and it's this charmer. The Economist poll mentioned upthread has Jenrick losing his seat to Reform, too. Whilst I'd love to see Honest Bob out on his ear, I don't want it at the expense of putting that fucker into parliament.

(I actually voted for Jenrick in the by election that got him into the Commons, caused by incumbent Tory Patrick Mercer having to resign over a cash-for-questions scandal, because in that election, the most serious challenger was UKIP's Roger Helmer… who's a disgusting bigot. I'm not voting for him this time, though… I'll just have to hope for the good sense of the people of Newark. Pray for me, arsians.)
 

Tijger

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We've got one, and it's this charmer. The Economist poll mentioned upthread has Jenrick losing his seat to Reform, too. Whilst I'd love to see Honest Bob out on his ear, I don't want it at the expense of putting that fucker into parliament.

(I actually voted for Jenrick in the by election that got him into the Commons, caused by incumbent Tory Patrick Mercer having to resign over a cash-for-questions scandal, because in that election, the most serious challenger was UKIP's Roger Helmer… who's a disgusting bigot. I'm not voting for him this time, though… I'll just have to hope for the good sense of the people of Newark. Pray for me, arsians.)

Well, that IS a charmer, I can see Reform UK's money has been well spent on vetting their candidates.
 
Reform are busier than the other parties with their events, livestreams and social media campaigns. I have a feeling they’re going to do better than people expect. There’s many who are of the opinion that a labour win is a foregone conclusion so they’re safe ‘chucking a vote to Reform’ as a way to punish the main political parties and make their displeasure known. In that regard you don’t even have to like their policies or candidates.
 

Mat8iou

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Spot on, yes.
I think this plays into the general approach that Labour and the Lib Dems don't need any sort of formal electoral pact. There are in reality very few three way marginals where they are against each other and the Tories - and so it is better to invest the efforts in the ones they stand more chance of winning and let someone else do the work in other ones that they have a chance of winning. Despite what the government keeps burbling about, there is little real benefit in having a massive majority - beyond a healthy working majority, so I doubt not going for these seats bothers those overseeing the national strategy that much.
 

Mat8iou

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Reform are busier than the other parties with their events, livestreams and social media campaigns. I have a feeling they’re going to do better than people expect. There’s many who are of the opinion that a labour win is a foregone conclusion so they’re safe ‘chucking a vote to Reform’ as a way to punish the main political parties and make their displeasure known. In that regard you don’t even have to like their policies or candidates.
I think they are very noisy on social media, but this isn't so much reflected in the real world TBH, It was always the same with UKIP in the past, On heaps of local community Facebook groups, you got the impression that half the country was going to be voting UKIP - but these votes never quite materialised.
 

karolus

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That's the blessing and curse of social media. People and organizations can appear legend with skillful positioning and manipulation—which gives a skewed reading of the reality on the ground. It has much lower barrier to entry than traditional social and political movements. The 2016 US presidential election and Brexit should serve as warning signs.
 

CommanderJameson

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Whoever is running the Tories’ Twitter account is straight-up mental. It’s a vid, but essentially our Ange is explaining that Labour will get rid of “fire and rehire”, and zero-hours contracts. These two simple things are likely to be wildly popular. Except the Tory Twitterbots think it’s awful, because...

reasons?

1719498368570.png

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
 

Tijger

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Whoever is running the Tories’ Twitter account is straight-up mental. It’s a vid, but essentially our Ange is explaining that Labour will get rid of “fire and rehire”, and zero-hours contracts. These two simple things are likely to be wildly popular. Except the Tory Twitterbots think it’s awful, because...

reasons?

View attachment 84064

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
Saw one yesterday from the Welsh Conservatives stating they would ban the 20 mph zones because countries that drive slower are poorer. I kid you not. 9 billion was quoted.

Note: many towns in the Netherlands had 20 mph zones far earlier than Wales, I wouldnt say we are poor
 
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JimCampbell

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These two simple things are likely to be wildly popular. Except the Tory Twitterbots think it’s awful, because...

reasons?
Am I being especially dense? What’s with the beret and the moustache? Are they trying to suggest Rayner is secretly… French?
 
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Saw one yesterday from the Welsh Conservatives stating they would ban the 20 mph zones because countries that drive slower are poorer. I kid you not. 9 billion was quoted.

Note: many towns in the Netherlands had 20 mph zones far earlier than Wales, I wouldnt say we are poor

Also the 20MPH zones are often most popular with rural Conservatives, who want everyone to drive slower through their villages.
 
In the U.S., highway speed limits inversely map surprisingly well to median income.

usa-state-speed-limits.jpg
2560px-Map_of_states_by_median_household_income_in_2019.svg.png
 

crazydee

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Also the 20MPH zones are often most popular with rural Conservatives, who want everyone to drive slower through their villages.
But only their village. They expect to drive 45 through other people's villages to save time, and no LTNs drivers have rights pedestrians and cyclists shouldn't have.

Meanwhile, Electoral Calculus have updated their average of polls, MRP prediction. First I've seen with the Lib Dems as the official opposition.
 

JimCampbell

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Electoral Calculus have updated their average of polls, MRP prediction. First I've seen with the Lib Dems as the official opposition.
I don't think that's the link you meant to embed — that's a Guardian article from last year…

Edit: Found it. The correct link for crazydee's post is here, I think.