When did America stop dreaming big? On colonizing/exploring Mars and hating on Musk

arcite

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This is currently the top trending story on the Atlantic;


Mars Is a Hellhole
Colonizing the red planet is a ridiculous way to help humanity

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... th/618133/

Excerpt:

“Musk has used the medium of dreaming and exploration to wrap up a package of entitlement, greed, and ego. He has no longing for scientific discovery, no desire to understand what makes Earth so different from Mars, how we all fit together and relate. Musk is no explorer; he is a flag planter. “

The author has been facing a barrage on Twitter, defending the piece against those of the Musk persuasion (she is also blocking many who disagree with her) in addition to winning applause from the sizeable anti-Musk crowd. Is the author just hiding behind Carl Sagan’s hallowed legacy?....or is she consciously tapping into something deeper, a rising tide of dissatisfaction with fast moving technological changes, their impacts on everyday life, and a people feeling increasingly powerless to harness its benefits? Wherein, an innovator like Musk is viewed as a scapegoat for societal ills, rather than someone who is creating new solutions and alternatives to the status quo.

The article really could have been about anything, from the fracking industry, genetic engineering, to advancements in AI and automation. Perhaps Musk makes an easy target.
 
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Louis XVI

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Musk is an interesting guy, in that he personally embodies both the best and the worst of capitalism. On the one hand, with Tesla and Space X, he’s led companies that have achieved true technological and commercial breakthroughs, achieving real advances that a lot of people didn’t think would be possible. He’s done a ton for the mass commercialization of electric cars and improving space travel, and for that, I’m grateful.

On the other hand, he’s done really harmful stuff, like ordering his workers back in defiance of state Covid mitigation requirements, using his loud bully pulpit to spread misinformation and undermine attempts to contain Covid, and engaging in shady union busting practices.

Finally, there’s his public antics, ranging from the whole “pedo guy” thing to giving his baby an unpronounceable name to smoking pot on camera. These reveal an unpleasant personality (the bullying of the diver from Thailand was pretty gross), but are generally harmless. They appear to me like a dorky guy desperately trying to be cool.

I guess that’s why Musk gets so much attention, adulation, and condemnation—he’s a human rorschach test. Some people (including him) see him as Tony Stark, others see him as a modern-day robber baron. I’ve gone from one side to the other. I really respected and enjoyed him right up to the point where he sent his workers back despite the lockdown and started pooh-poohing Covid and attempts to mitigate it. That’s when I sold my Tesla stock (it’s probably worth about 4x as much now...), and while I appreciate what he’s done, I think it would be best if he just went away and retired to his secret volcano lair.
 

spoof

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When did America stop dreaming big? Hard to say exactly, but it probably coincided with the rise of modern conservatism.

As for Mars, the robots are doing a fine job, and they keep improving them. Need more data? Send another robot.

Mars Is a Hellhole

It most certainly is. As for Musk, he can do whatever the hell he wants, that's a feature of capital entrepreneurship and whatever his vision is. More power to him.
 

Shavano

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I think the points of the article you've summarized are mostly right. Colonizing Mars won't help humanity unless in a peripheral way. It will never be more than a side show, if an interesting and entertaining one. There's lots of science to do on Mars but I don't see Musk as being that interested in it. Maybe I have the wrong impression. I think she's right. He's a flag planter.

But yes, he's done a lot to advance the technology that may get people there some day, and other technologies besides. He's one of the most productive industrialists of our time, for good and bad. He has the common defects of most other mega-industrialists in our history: egomania, classism, and opposition to progressive social policy.
 

Delor

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Well, which seems more likely? That the American populace has collectively projected an abstract concept generally regarded as a virtue on him and then hated him for it, in an "Terrorists hate our freedom" sense? Or that they hate him for one of the billion more concrete reasons to hate him: He's rich. He calls heroes who rescue children from a cave pedophiles because he wanted the credit. He's an abusive, exploitative boss. He's an entitled asshole. You've got a veritable buffet of choices.

I know which explanation I'm picking: That lots of people dislike him because there's a lot much more concrete reasons to hate him, not that they hate him for "dreaming big".

The article really could have been about anything, from the fracking industry, genetic engineering, to advancements in AI and automation. Perhaps Musk makes an easy target.

Yeah, he is easy target. That's right, and it's another reason the premise of the OP is dubious. Again, Occam's Razor. Did she write the article because she's channeling an American zeitgeist that hates innovation? Or did she write it because he's prominent, rich person who lives a noisy public life? I know where my money is.
 

Delor

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Incidentally, I'm also excited that he wants to go to Mars. Even if it is just for his own glory instead of the good of humanity, or if the money could do more good elsewhere. I think it's good to expand our space travel technologies, plus nerdily I also think it's just cool.

It's possible to both recognize that someone is doing cool things and that there's a lot of awful things about that person. Elon Musk isn't Harrison Bergeron.
 

slowtech

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I think it is good that there are different takes on Elon. He is human, he is not going to be an "ideal" anything. His pressuring workers back to the Tesla factory in a pandemic is unforgivable. Also, SpaceX has been amazing to watch in these dark times.

As for Mars, it certainly is a horrible place to live when compared to Earth, no question. But it is a big step up when compared to just living out in space. It has gravity, some water and someplace to hide from radiation. The biggest downside in my mind isn't the cold, it is the lack of energy. Solar isn't going to work as well on Mars (about 60% of Earthbound solar, says Google). Fusion? It isn't clear how to power a Mars colony, and that is a huge problem, IMHO.
 

m0nckywrench

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Sending meat tourists early on because it's exciting is the only real reason for manned missions vs. exploring space for a few hundred or thousand years using machines to perfect those systems, but humans crave emotional engagement which means meat tourism rather than robots. The reason to explore space is conquest of land and resources but machines can harvest any spice found.

The arguments for exploration have been poorly sold to an ignorant public. Remember most people are stupid (our race requires nuclear deterrents to behave itself and is more prone to savagery than good government, need I go on?) so they must be "sold" science to support scientific programs and that's not being done very well. The collapse of the US primary school system (school boards tend to be shit like the ignorant fossils running them) isn't helping cure the abysmal ignorance of an electorate so degenerate it believes in astrology, religion and the GOP.

The people saying we don't "need" manned missions are correct to some extent because our machinery could stand centuries of improvement and wasting money on life support drives costs up and reduces available resources. The average person will get nothing from the effort, never fly into space, and is of such inferior clay they don't belong on a mission requiring performant humans who are highly educated and physically fit. It's like expecting some peasant burning shit for cooking fuel to care about the decor of a palace they'll never live in.

The 1960s were good for exploration because the West had enemy competitors. THAT is how to sell exploration and technology to plebs. They aren't capable of understanding but they ARE capable of feels so it's the duty of leadership to cynically manipulate them for the good of humanity. Play up the (quite real, and permanent) Chinese and Russian enemy threats. Eventually human wars will extend into space when we've enough economic interests to kill for and need that "high ground" so it's wise to prepare for them. Bubba and LaQueefa can't into tech but totally "get" competition. Market accordingly!
 
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Matisaro

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It most certainly is. As for Musk, he can do whatever the hell he wants, that's a feature of capital entrepreneurship and whatever his vision is. More power to him.


He is a crony capitalist who built a neat rocket, he literally refused to shut his factories down to stop covid and probably got people killed, less power to him and all like him.
 

blindbear

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It most certainly is. As for Musk, he can do whatever the hell he wants, that's a feature of capital entrepreneurship and whatever his vision is. More power to him.


He is a crony capitalist who built a neat rocket, he literally refused to shut his factories down to stop covid and probably got people killed, less power to him and all like him.

He is not a good person, but he may have push the electric car forwards. Kind of same as Steve Jobs, he is not a good person either but he did push advancement of smart phone. A lot of the inventions are advanced by horrible people.
 

spoof

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It most certainly is. As for Musk, he can do whatever the hell he wants, that's a feature of capital entrepreneurship and whatever his vision is. More power to him.


He is a crony capitalist who built a neat rocket, he literally refused to shut his factories down to stop covid and probably got people killed, less power to him and all like him.

No one except for rabid Elon fans are saying you have to love the guy, yeah his "privileged jerk" bona fides are well defined.

"More power" is meant to mean...keep building "neat rockets". That's all. Besides, we have a most infamous privileged jerk that predates Elon by quite a bit. And that one managed to get elected president.
 

spoof

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The biggest downside in my mind isn't the cold, it is the lack of energy. Solar isn't going to work as well on Mars (about 60% of Earthbound solar, says Google). Fusion? It isn't clear how to power a Mars colony, and that is a huge problem, IMHO.

Ship a nuke plant there. Do that first, then send the humans to activate it. McMurdo Station in Antarctica, the harshest earth environment we have that could even be compared to Mars, was nuclear powered from 1962-1972:

On March 3, 1962, the U.S. Navy activated the PM-3A nuclear power plant at the station. The unit was prefabricated in modules to facilitate transport and assembly. Engineers designed the components to weigh no more than 30,000 pounds (14,000 kg) each and to measure no more than 8 feet 8 inches (2.64 m) by 8 feet 8 inches (2.64 m) by 30 feet (9.1 m). A single core no larger than an oil drum served as the heart of the nuclear reactor. These size and weight restrictions aimed to allow delivery of the reactor in an LC-130 Hercules aircraft. However, the components were actually delivered by ship.[5] The reactor generated 1.8 MW of electrical power[6] and reportedly replaced the need for 1,500 US gallons (5,700 l) of oil daily.[7] Engineers applied the reactor's power, for instance, in producing steam for the salt-water distillation plant. As a result of continuing safety issues (hairline cracks in the reactor and water leaks),[8][9] the U.S. Army Nuclear Power Program decommissioned the plant in 1972.[9] Conventional diesel generators replaced the nuclear power station, with a number of 500 kilowatts (670 hp) diesel generators in a central powerhouse providing electric power. A conventionally-fueled water-desalination plant provided fresh water.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMurdo_S ... %80%931972

Unfortunately, you can't just switch over to diesel power on Mars. Something about needing oxygen for "combustion"...;) Plus, they're heavy as hell. Anyway, our engineering for nuclear has surely improved over the 1962-1972 timeframe.
 

Ecmaster76

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Sending meat tourists early on because it's exciting is the only real reason for manned missions vs. exploring space for a few hundred or thousand years using machines to perfect those systems, but humans crave emotional engagement which means meat tourism rather than robots. The reason to explore space is conquest of land and resources but machines can harvest any spice found.
What *can't* machines do better than humans?

#MACHINESFTW #NeoWasTheBadGuy
 
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Matisaro

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Ship a nuke plant there. Do that first, then send the humans to activate it. McMurdo Station in Antarctica, the harshest earth environment we have that could even be compared to Mars, was nuclear powered from 1962-1972:


Did we launch it there on a giant explodey rocket?

Kind of apples to oranges there spoof.
 
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spoof

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"More power" is meant to mean...keep building "neat rockets".


How about we tax him a reasonable amount then let the state build the neat rockets?

Ah yes. The "old model". Where they used contractors to build spacecraft. Which is basically what Musk is now.

Back in the old days, the contractor that built the Apollo Command Module was North American Rockwell. After the Apollo I fire, the burnt hulk of that spacecraft was brought to a KSC hangar and painstakingly disassembled. Skinned wires were discovered. The Director of NASA ordered the next one on the assembly line to be shipped to the same hangar at KSC where it was also painstakingly disassembled. Skinned wires were discovered. Why? They were pulling the wire harnesses through small openings in the bulkheads.

Not only that, many workers responsible for this assembly were taking their lunch breaks at a bar across the way, shooting pool and drinking beer by the pitcher, then returning to their job...pulling wires through the Apollo CM bulkheads.

Needless to say, shit got ugly.
 

spoof

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Ship a nuke plant there. Do that first, then send the humans to activate it. McMurdo Station in Antarctica, the harshest earth environment we have that could even be compared to Mars, was nuclear powered from 1962-1972:


Did we launch it there on a giant explodey rocket?

Kind of apples to oranges there spoof.

Didn't they just drop an SUV sized rover courtesy of a "skycrane"? They can do the same thing many times over. With any piece of equipment anyone would need.
 

spoof

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Sending meat tourists early on because it's exciting is the only real reason for manned missions vs. exploring space for a few hundred or thousand years using machines to perfect those systems, but humans crave emotional engagement which means meat tourism rather than robots. The reason to explore space is conquest of land and resources but machines can harvest any spice found.
What *can't* machines do better than humans?

#MACHINESFTW #NeoWasTheBadGuy

They can do whatever the human does, the "hurricane winds" won't bother them like "The Martian" :rolleyes: ...plus they don't need to grow potatoes in excrement. ;)

They can probably even hook them up with Twitter account, so they can tweet daily about their experiences. They can use an AI and an avatar that resembles...a 12 year old girl. Whatever. Get creative.
 

swiftdraw

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"More power" is meant to mean...keep building "neat rockets".


How about we tax him a reasonable amount then let the state build the neat rockets?

Space X got us a very cost effective rocket in the Falcon series and has become workhorse in the commercial launch industry.

The State got us the SLS, which got some contractors and Alabama a lot of money. It has yet to fly despite bringing announced roughly a decade ago.

As much as I dislike Musk as a person, there is no denying he lead a revolution in the space industry that the US government wouldn’t be able to manage.
 

Megalodon

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There's lots of other issues others have explored already, so I'm just going to pick one specific nit that irks me with Musk: bitcoin. The carbon footprint of bitcoin is absolutely staggering, yet Musk is a huge fan. Why? To whatever extent bitcoin provides real world value, it's probably mostly stuff like a money laundry to move money out of mainland China. There's arguably utility to that, but it doesn't add any value to Tesla, and it's going to use like a megawatt-hour of electricity per transaction for Tesla to accept payment via bitcoin as they apparently plan to do. That' a material fraction of a vehicle's total lifetime carbon footprint.
 

Matisaro

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Ship a nuke plant there. Do that first, then send the humans to activate it. McMurdo Station in Antarctica, the harshest earth environment we have that could even be compared to Mars, was nuclear powered from 1962-1972:


Did we launch it there on a giant explodey rocket?

Kind of apples to oranges there spoof.

Didn't they just drop an SUV sized rover courtesy of a "skycrane"? They can do the same thing many times over. With any piece of equipment anyone would need.


...and if the launch vehicle carrying the HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE FUEL explodes on lift off?

jesus man, apples and oranges.
 

spoof

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Ship a nuke plant there. Do that first, then send the humans to activate it. McMurdo Station in Antarctica, the harshest earth environment we have that could even be compared to Mars, was nuclear powered from 1962-1972:


Did we launch it there on a giant explodey rocket?

Kind of apples to oranges there spoof.

Didn't they just drop an SUV sized rover courtesy of a "skycrane"? They can do the same thing many times over. With any piece of equipment anyone would need.


...and if the launch vehicle carrying the HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE FUEL explodes on lift off?

jesus man, apples and oranges.

Look, I "get you" on the general safety issue of launching radioactive material on rockets, but we've been doing it for awhile now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-mis ... _generator

The MMRTG is powered by eight Pu-238 dioxide general-purpose heat source (GPHS) modules, provided by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Initially, these eight GPHS modules generate about 2 kW thermal power.

The MMRTG design incorporates PbTe/TAGS thermoelectric couples (from Teledyne Energy Systems), where TAGS is an acronym designating a material incorporating tellurium (Te), silver (Ag), germanium (Ge) and antimony (Sb). The MMRTG is designed to produce 125 W electrical power at the start of mission, falling to about 100 W after 14 years.[6] With a mass of 45 kg[7] the MMRTG provides about 2.8 W/kg of electrical power at beginning of life.

The MMRTG design is capable of operating both in the vacuum of space and in planetary atmospheres, such as on the surface of Mars. Design goals for the MMRTG included ensuring a high degree of safety, optimizing power levels over a minimum lifetime of 14 years, and minimizing weight.[2]


Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
 

GeneralFailureDriveA

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...or is she consciously tapping into something deeper, a rising tide of dissatisfaction with fast moving technological changes, their impacts on everyday life, and a people feeling increasingly powerless to harness its benefits?

Regardless of the article, this trend is certainly increasing, and for valid reasons. Many technology companies seem to believe in change for the sake of change, enjoy it themselves, and don't consider i the actuual, non-technical users, care for randomly rearranged screen icons every year to feel modern and whatever the proper marketing terms are.

That we've taken the smartest people in the world, paid them a ton of money, and optimized their efforts for selling ads, strikes many people as absurd as well. Despite Google's many (and increasingly comical) efforts to spread their wings outside their core competencies of search, they appear utterly comical in their attempts, and the new response to any Google product of "Oh, this, too, shall pass..." is increasingly correct, to self fulfilling prohacy values of correct.

Yet, we have made the rich radically richer, and... that which is commonly used is simply turned into addictive ways to sell yet more ads. All of so-called "social" media has turned into nothing but a gore show, seeking ratings (advertising impressions) over all else, regardless of the very real harms to humans. The delivered future does not work quite as advertised, and involves spending very real sums of money in terms of phones, phone plans, internet plans, computers, etc, for the honor of making others far wealthier.

This is our promised technological future? That we can pay dearly for the privilege of personalized ads piped into every aspect of our life, via addictive devices that deny us even the previous moments of silence and contemplation in our increasingly noise-filled worlds? That the solution to noise is expensive, short-lived noise cancelling devices that we cannot repair, and must discard when they are worn in a few short years, so they can be ever thinner? Devices that become unsafe to use on a network in a few short years, because the manufactures cannot be bothered to update them when a new one, with different bugs, is more profitable?

Consider the world outside our technological bubbles and how this is perceived. It is madness!

Wherein, an innovator like Musk is viewed as a scapegoat for societal ills, rather than someone who is creating new solutions and alternatives to the status quo.

If one is upset with the technology industry, one can hardly find a better figurehead of dislike than Musk. Page and Brin have had the good sense to exit the industry for whatever yacht they find interesting, Gates has taken his wealth (from an older iteration, certainly) and is trying to do some reasonable amounts of good with it, Jobs is dead and Cook is a boring (yet highly effective) business person, and Bezos at least has the sense to shut his mouth at times when running it resembles nothing so much as an auger further into the ground. Musk is a product of the tech industry, believes clearly in the obviously superior future that the tech industry can deliver (despite his inability to deliver on his promises), and has clearly not learned the value of shutting up and letting his actions and the products of his companies speak, instead preferring to hype everything to the moon as he yet again fails to deliver on his most visible promises.

The article really could have been about anything, from the fracking industry, genetic engineering, to advancements in AI and automation.

Some of which, those saying early, "Hey, this may be a bad idea, we ought to consider it..." got shouted down, and were bad ideas. Others, the verdict is still out, but, yet, appear to be bad ideas. Must we list all the horrible behaviors of so-called AIs? The future of replacing biased human judgement with "big data machine learning" seems to have done nothing but replicate human biases, in a more easily dismissed manner.

When did America stop dreaming big? Hard to say exactly, but it probably coincided with the rise of modern conservatism.

Or, perhaps, when the return on investment on our technologies stopped yielding increasing returns, transitioned to diminishing returns, and, perhaps, has crossed into negative returns. The world is in no particular obligation to give us what we want, and many promising technologies turned out to be nothing but subsidy dumpsters. Supersonic commercial aviation, the "obvious" future of flying, struggled for decades with the problem that it simply cost too much money, both in fuel and in maintenance, for the somewhat limited benefits. Fusion is the technology of the future, and even if it can be done in a net energy positive way, is still useless if the production facilities require anything like the cost of ITER or other large, high energy facilities. Our microprocessors have been reduced in size to near that of the minimum feasible width, and what do we do with the radically improved processing power provided? Ship around higher resolution videos of people without their clothes, and fill data centers with computers determining how to best keep the users, purchasers of their own demise, "engaged" the best, so we can shovel ads down their throat!

Again, explain to an average citizen who has watched the promises never delivered, and has a worse quality of life in the result, why these are so evidently the future?


As for Mars, the robots are doing a fine job, and they keep improving them. Need more data? Send another robot.

And, at some point, the possible answer may be, "We have answered our questions, the place is a dry, barren desert unsuited to any form of human life. We no longer need more data."



Even if it is just for his own glory instead of the good of humanity, or if the money could do more good elsewhere. I think it's good to expand our space travel technologies, plus nerdily I also think it's just cool.

Despite his seeming desire to use Red Faction or Doom as guides to Mars, instead of cautionary tales? He is enough a problem on Earth, would you wish to have him be your dictator on Mars?

Expanding space travel assumes there are things of great value in space, and that the value of them exceeds the weaponization potentials of what we consider doing with them. It is far from evident that asteroid mining or off-earth habitation is anything but yet another fevered dream of the tech world, as a solution to the very real problems on earth. Asteroid mining as the solution to exponential growth assumes that exponential growth is a good thing, and space is far, far more hostile than our worse nightmares early on.



The reason to explore space is conquest of land and resources but machines can harvest any spice found.

Again, you assume that conquest of land and resources is the right solution to whatever problems you believe we face.

...isn't helping cure the abysmal ignorance of an electorate so degenerate it believes in astrology, religion and the GOP.

Your arrogance ensures you will never have the slightest impact on that group, who will rightly ignore anything you say.

They aren't capable of understanding but they ARE capable of feels so it's the duty of leadership to cynically manipulate them for the good of humanity.

I hope, for humanity's sake, you never acquire any political office or position of power with your horrid views of humanity.



The State got us the SLS, which got some contractors and Alabama a lot of money. It has yet to fly despite bringing announced roughly a decade ago.

Nobody has ever pretended the SLS is anything but a jobs program. A working spaceship is a secondary product of no importance to the SLS program. This is a failing of the US government and Nasa relationship, but the design of the SLS is constrained, simply, by "You must keep all Shuttle related companies in business." It is a nonsense design, discarding reusable engines, that, if it does ever fly, will be hideously expensive to run.

As much as I dislike Musk as a person, there is no denying he lead a revolution in the space industry that the US government wouldn’t be able to manage.

He has, certainly, but again one must ask, "What is the value of low cost space launch, and what are the costs?" If we succeed in Kessler syndroming various low orbital shells as everyone rushes to deploy space based internet instead of simply building more low cost towers on land, is this a win? Well, fo those who profit on the process before destroying the commons, yes.

The carbon footprint of bitcoin is absolutely staggering, yet Musk is a huge fan. Why?

Presumably as an easy way for increasing the value of his personal btc holdings, whatever they are, on the company dime.

And, yet, for all his claims about caring about the environment, he fails to do the simplest thing he can with Tesla to improve the environmental impact: Allow others to repair their own vehicles, to lower the cost of ownership and extend the useful lifespan of them. Or, perhaps, to listen to engineers who tell him that, no, automotive part ratings exist for a reason, you cannot simply slap a laptop screen and 8GB eMMC chip in a car and expect it to work long term.
 

NavyGothic

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Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.
 
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Matisaro

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Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.


No, no Spoof said it was 3.6 roentgen and that's not great not terrible.
 

spoof

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Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.

Obviously you can't have an industrial earth style nuke plant with a fissile core that needs cooling from a river or whatever. But you need heat and power, and some type of nuclear fuel provides both.

So, can they "scale up" the RTG concept or what? It's not like the humans have to sleep with a chunk of it. But if it's that bad, then just keep powering the robots with it and fix the problems on earth.
 

blindbear

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Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.

Obviously you can't have an industrial earth style nuke plant with a fissile core that needs cooling from a river or whatever. But you need heat and power, and some type of nuclear fuel provides both.

So, can they "scale up" the RTG concept or what? It's not like the humans have to sleep with a chunk of it. But if it's that bad, then just keep powering the robots with it and fix the problems on earth.

We can also have the robot build the reactor after the material leave the earth. They do not ever need shielding (at least not as much).
 

Megalodon

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Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.

Obviously you can't have an industrial earth style nuke plant with a fissile core that needs cooling from a river or whatever. But you need heat and power, and some type of nuclear fuel provides both.

So, can they "scale up" the RTG concept or what? It's not like the humans have to sleep with a chunk of it. But if it's that bad, then just keep powering the robots with it and fix the problems on earth.
Not easy to scale up. RTGs as currently used by the US probably would be safe to spend time around. The isotope they use generates practically no gamma so as long as it doesn't get decapsulated it would be safe for almost any application.

The problem is that the isotope, Pu238, is extremely expensive to generate. The total US inventory is about 35 kg, much of that decayed to sub-optimal power density.

To scale much beyond a few kilowatts, a different more plentiful isotope would probably have to be used. Probably Am241. This has lower power density and more gamma, but can be extracted from spent nuclear fuel. The lower power density makes this a challenging way to scale and many of the concepts propose using a Stirling generator to improve efficiency, to make up for the lower thermal power. Either way scaling is likely to be quite difficult. There's also Po210, but that has a half-life of 138 days.

This is why crewed mission concepts that can't use solar generally end up having to go with a fission reactor. Supporting a crewed mission will need tens of kilowatts per person, and doing that with an RTG looks prohibitively difficult.
 

Dan Homerick

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5,128
Subscriptor
I'm always a wee bit :rolleyes: when people rake Musk over the coals about the Factory/Covid thing. Reason being, I toured their Fremont factory on ... <searches gmail> Feb 25th, 2020. At that point, Covid was already causing concern in the bay area, but the counties didn't shut everything down until March 16th, after it had become clear that there was significant community spread occurring in California and to ward off St. Partrick's day spread.

A month before any restrictions were in place, Tesla already had all their information workers on WFH, and it was stark just how few people were in the factory. It's not like the place had realized the dream of being fully automated -- there were still a number of workers there -- but they were all well-spaced out and doing tasks independently. When I compare what was happening in the Tesla factory to any number of restaurants and stores which were allowed to stay open, and where the workers & customers were much, much, much closer together, it's easy to see why Musk was pushing back so hard against the restrictions. If the open/close criteria had been based on risk of transmission, rather than on whether an industry was "essential" or not, then I think it was pretty clear that Tesla could/should have stayed open. It's a big factory, and had a low density. Even the question of whether Tesla counted as essential wasn't as cut and dried as it was made out to be -- there were many exceptions to the closure orders, including for companies involved with auto parts.

FWIW, they stopped doing tours by March 13th or earlier.

I think Musk is an easy target to hate, and that he deserves some of that hate. Especially during some of Tesla's most dire periods, he was pretty clearly lashing out on Twitter. He sucked for doing that. To the degree that he's still doing that sort of thing, he still sucks. But the covid shutdown thing? Yeah, he was in the wrong, but I just can't see it as being the terrible thing that some people seem to consider it. </unpopular-opinion>
 

Louis XVI

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
9,984
Subscriptor
IBut the covid shutdown thing? Yeah, he was in the wrong, but I just can't see it as being the terrible thing that some people seem to consider it. </unpopular-opinion>
What makes it a terrible thing is that he was willing to risk other people’s lives and health to make a buck and show off that he’s smarter than everyone else. Musk is not an epidemiologist or public health expert, and there’s no indication that his decision to reopen the factory was guided by such experts. But he had to show that he was smarter than those pointy-headed bureaucrats in Sacramento, even if the pandemic had to spread or some of his employees had to die for the effort. Two Tesla workers were fired for taking unpaid lead instead of returning to work, and several employees subsequently tested positive. That there is a terrible thing.

The other thing that makes it terrible is that one of the reasons America’s response to the pandemic was so bad was the politicization and denial of the danger. On the one hand, you had the experts saying that we needed to take strong, fast measures to contain the virus, and on the other, you had Trump and his ilk saying that it was a hoax, no worse than the flue, and shutdowns and masks are for pussies who choose to live in fear. Enough people agreed with the latter group that the virus spread out of control, and half a million people died. You’ll never guess which side Musk lent his widely followed voice?

Musk amplified the misinformation and downplaying of the severity of the virus by tweeting things like “My guess is that the panic will cause more harm than the virus, if that hasn’t happened already” and “The coronavirus panic is dumb.” He also undermined public support for shutdown efforts by tweeting “FREE AMERICA NOW,” the government should “give people their freedom back,” and calling stay at home orders “forcible imprisoning” and “fascist.” For whatever reason, a lot of people look up to Musk and pay attention to what he says. For him to use that position to weaken public resolve to fight Covid was a terrible thing.
 
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m0nckywrench

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,852
Ah yes. The "old model". Where they used contractors to build spacecraft. Which is basically what Musk is now.

Back in the old days, the contractor that built the Apollo Command Module was North American Rockwell. After the Apollo I fire, the burnt hulk of that spacecraft was brought to a KSC hangar and painstakingly disassembled. Skinned wires were discovered. The Director of NASA ordered the next one on the assembly line to be shipped to the same hangar at KSC where it was also painstakingly disassembled. Skinned wires were discovered. Why? They were pulling the wire harnesses through small openings in the bulkheads.

Not only that, many workers responsible for this assembly were taking their lunch breaks at a bar across the way, shooting pool and drinking beer by the pitcher, then returning to their job...pulling wires through the Apollo CM bulkheads.

Needless to say, shit got ugly.

"A sealed cabin pressurized with an oxygen atmosphere" was a grotesquely stupid choice that doomed the crew (no aircraft would have had that system for obvious reasons) but the other fuckups were impressive too.

https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4029/Apollo_01a_Summary.htm
 

Megalodon

Ars Legatus Legionis
34,201
Subscriptor++
IBut the covid shutdown thing? Yeah, he was in the wrong, but I just can't see it as being the terrible thing that some people seem to consider it. </unpopular-opinion>
What makes it a terrible thing is that he was willing to risk other people’s lives and health to make a buck and show off that he’s smarter than everyone else. Musk is not an epidemiologist or public health expert, and there’s no indication that his decision to reopen the factory was guided by such experts. But he had to show that he was smarter than those pointy-headed bureaucrats in Sacramento, even if the pandemic had to spread or some of his employees had to die for the effort. Two Tesla workers were fired for taking unpaid lead instead of returning to work, and several employees subsequently tested positive. That there is a terrible thing.
There was also some controversy relating to the fact that Tesla did its own contact tracing and claimed, unconvincingly, that there was no worker-to-worker transmission. They've also kept the total cases at the factory secret.
 

swiftdraw

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4,017
Subscriptor
As much as I dislike Musk as a person, there is no denying he lead a revolution in the space industry that the US government wouldn’t be able to manage.

He has, certainly, but again one must ask, "What is the value of low cost space launch, and what are the costs?" If we succeed in Kessler syndroming various low orbital shells as everyone rushes to deploy space based internet instead of simply building more low cost towers on land, is this a win? Well, fo those who profit on the process before destroying the commons, yes.

Since no one seems to be in a rush to build said towers, though it’s been technologically viable for years, I guess it is. But this seems to traveling into “what aboutism.” Falcon 9 and Heavy have lifted more than just Starlink sats, and have been actively trying to lower rocket waste by developing its rockets to be recoverable as possible. I mean, they’re recovering fairings for cripes sakes. Yes, Starlink is a orbital debris hazard, but the rockets themselves have a smaller waste footprint than most traditional rockets.

If we’re to get off this planet as a species (which I believe humanity is going to have to do to be viable long term ), we need to make breaking Earth’s atmosphere and orbit as economically viable as possible. Musk’s SpaceX seems to be the only one making tangible progress towards that.
 

BenN

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11,271
Plutonium! OMG! There's at least two there now, might have to send bigger ones later. And if people are going to "spend the night" there, I'm sure they won't mind that a little Plutonium is keeping them warm.
I mean... I think there's a slight difference between a tiny generator using the natural decay of radioactive isotopes, and a nuclear fission reactor.


No, no Spoof said it was 3.6 roentgen and that's not great not terrible.
LOL. I see what you did there.

;)
 

GeneralFailureDriveA

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,185
Subscriptor
Since no one seems to be in a rush to build said towers, though it’s been technologically viable for years, I guess it is.

The cell phone network argues that people have built the towers, and the abundance of rural WISPs also argues for said towers being built. It may not meet in town standards of "Anything below 500Mbit is a violation of international human rights standards", yet they remain useful and usable. That the modern internet is written and deployed by people on gigabit is a large problem, I admit. A modern website delivers more advertising and tracking code than we used for operating systems decades ago.

But this seems to traveling into “what aboutism.” Falcon 9 and Heavy have lifted more than just Starlink sats, and have been actively trying to lower rocket waste by developing its rockets to be recoverable as possible.

I apologize as I am not as up to date on launch vehicle technology as I ought be, but as I understood the technologies, first stages almost never met orbital velocity requirements, so were no more than a short term (hours) debris hazard, with second stages often not remaining in orbit either. The final satellite motors remain in orbit as part of the satellite, but as the intended payload is is hard to avoid those! I do not see how "recovering a first stage" vs "a first stage being single use and suborbital" has any difference in orbital debris migration.

Yes, Starlink is a orbital debris hazard, but the rockets themselves have a smaller waste footprint than most traditional rockets.

Yet, the ability of the radically lowered launch costs to loft many more satellites far increases the debris risk. So there is no change on launch vehicle risk, but the launch of many more satellites radically increases the risk. How is this an improvement?

If we’re to get off this planet as a species (which I believe humanity is going to have to do to be viable long term ), we need to make breaking Earth’s atmosphere and orbit as economically viable as possible. Musk’s SpaceX seems to be the only one making tangible progress towards that.

To go where? Nothing livable is within human lifespan travel ranges, and generation ships make for interesting science fiction novels, but are far from actual engineering solutions.

It is as reasonable a solution as, "I came home drunk and shit my bed; I suppose I'll buy a new house!" - which, for a certain level of wealth, is probably within consideration. Yet a maid tolerant of changing soiled sheets is far cheaper.

Perhaps if we were to take society's best talent and engineering skill, and put their minds to something more useful than "We will make people click as many ads as possible," we could solve problems on the planet without considering running off it a reasonable solution. This is obvious to most people outside the echoing walls of the tech industry.
 

mishka

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,854
The Enlightenment only brushed America so the nation's psyche is still largely medieval: obscurantist, superstitious, xenophobic. And it seemed to become cowardly too. I rode a train full of football fans a couple of years back and had a bottle of soda make a "pop!" sound when I opened it. The whole car braced and cowered and I had to explain and apologize several times until they quieted down. It was sad to see that much of prime steroid meat and facial hair cluck like a hen-house.
 

fil

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,885
Subscriptor++
The Enlightenment only brushed America
This is a truly bizarre thing to say. The US, perhaps more than any other nation on the planet, is a direct product of the Enlightenment. Our system of government, and foundational documents are based directly on enlightenment thought. Have you never heard of Thomas Jefferson? Benjamin Franklin? James Madison? The Declaration of Independence? The US Constitution?

The US has no doubt been going through a rough few years, but it's incredibly premature to argue it has stopped dreaming big. We just put another lander on Mars, with plenty more missions planned.
 

mishka

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,854
The Enlightenment only brushed America
This is a truly bizarre thing to say. The US, perhaps more than any other nation on the planet, is a direct product of the Enlightenment. Our system of government, and foundational documents are based directly on enlightenment thought. Have you never heard of Thomas Jefferson? Benjamin Franklin? James Madison? The Declaration of Independence? The US Constitution?

The US has no doubt been going through a rough few years, but it's incredibly premature to argue it has stopped dreaming big. We just put another lander on Mars, with plenty more missions planned.

There is nothing unusual in the ruling class having completely different values and worldview than hoi poloi. This is actually very common.