2024 Non-Presidential races and issues

wco81

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OK, a grab-bag thread about candidates running for offices other than the POTUS. Congress is at stake and there will no doubt be key ballot initiatives including for either codifying abortion rights or denying them. Some of these will no doubt impact certain races or be impacted by them. POTUS race will of course draw huge turnout, which may or may not match the multi-decade high turnout of 2020.

So in CA, a big race to succeed Diane Feinstein. Adam Schiff has a big fundraising advantage, followed by Katie Porter and then Barbara Lee on the Democratic side.


Lexi Reese, a former Facebook and Google exec, is another Democratic candidate. There may be others.


On the Republican side, the candidates who've declared all seem to be little-known.


Steve Garvey, former baseball player, has expressed interest.


There's some concern that if 3 or more Democratic candidates draw enough support, it may allow a Republican candidate to be one of the final 2 candidates in November 2024.
 

wco81

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Not yet clear which issues will animate the CA Senate race but Barbara Lee recently introduced the OLIGARCH Act, a more detailed wealth tax than any released by Democratic candidates for the President in 2020.


The OLIGRACH Act specifically establishes four tax brackets:

· 2% for all wealth between 1,000 and 10,000 times median household wealth;

· 4% for all wealth between 10,000 and 100,000 times median household wealth;

· 6% for all wealth between 100,000 and 1,000,000 times median household wealth;

· 8% for all wealth over 1,000,000 times median household wealth

This wealth tax is largest when the gaps are extreme, and shrinks when the gaps are closing, allowing for it to adapt to a changing economy and maintain equality. Ultimately, the OLIGARCH Act benefits everyone in America.

Remains to be seen if Lee will campaign on this proposed law, which is unlikely to be enacted given the composition of the Senate as well as the House.

However, CA finances have benefitted over the years from state income taxes and capital gains from high-income workers and execs in the tech industry.

In 2022, the drop in tech stock valuations led to shortfall in state tax receipts.

In general tax policy hasn't been big in state races. With the Democratic super majority, the state has passed relatively recent tax hikes. I believe there was one after the 2008 Financial Crisis, with Governors Brown and Newsom not suffering for having one of the highest state tax rates in the country.
 
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wco81

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Not a 2024 race but sort of a bellwether, to the extent a red state governor's race can be a bellwether for the rest of the nation, is in KY where Andy Beshear is running for re-election in the fall vs. AG Daniel Cameron. Polls show the race to be close for now.

Breshears has 64% approval currently and he touts his economic record. One of his commercials cites 46k more jobs in KY now than before the pandemic.

The Republicans are going heavy on cultural issues, accusing Breshears of being for the liberal transgender agenda.

Breshear pulled out a close win against a really damaged opponent and surprisingly won some rural counties where there used to be coal mines. Biden would get crushed in those same counties in 2020, just a year later.

Neither side is making a lot out of the Dobbs decision. Breshears prefers to tout the economy, even though at worst, abortion is a 50-50 issue in a deep red state:

If Republicans are going to be able to campaign anywhere on restricting abortion you’d think it would be in a state Trump won by 26 points.


Abortion was the centerpiece of former Gov. Matt Bevin’s broadsides against Beshear at Fancy Farm four years ago. The then-governor brought a prop with him on stage: an enlarged advertisement for a Beshear fundraiser hosted by the owner of a Louisville abortion clinic.


After the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, the state’s trigger law went into effect, making abortion illegal in Kentucky. And now, the issue is notably missing from the attacks against Beshear, who supports abortion rights. The only ad so far is from a Republican group that mentions abortion is from Kentucky Values, which says Beshear “supports making it easier for minors to have abortions without telling their parents.”


That doesn’t mean Beshear is talking about it either, though. His campaign would rather discuss the governor’s economic record, or education, or his attention to recovery from extreme weather events, including tornadoes in Mayfield, just down the road from Fancy Farm.


Abortion is close to a 50-50 issue in Kentucky — a ballot initiative to clarify that the state constitution does not protect abortion rights failed last November 52-48 — which underscores Republicans’ challenges on the issue, even in red states.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AyzdbdGlDSa-aw3DhEJSvAA
 

wco81

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Feinstein passes, as many thought it might happen.

There has been some discussions about whom Newsom would appoint.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has ruled out appointing Rep. Barbara Lee to the U.S. Senate should Dianne Feinstein leave before her term is up.
“I don’t want to get involved in the primary,” Newsom said in a taped interview that’s set to air Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” It was the clearest he’s been in terms of opting for a Senate placeholder.

Newsom, a California Democrat, told host Chuck Todd that it would be unjust to the other 2024 candidates, including Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, if he were to appoint someone who would run for reelection.


“It would be completely unfair to the Democrats that have worked their tail off. That primary is just a matter of months away. I don’t want to tip the balance of that,” Newsom said in the interview.

Asked whether he intended to stick by his pledge to appoint a Black woman to the seat, Newsom said he did. “We hope we never have to make this decision, but I abide by what I’ve said very publicly on a consistent basis. Yes,” he said.

 

wco81

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So the CA Senate race should garner more media attention, since Feinstein is going to be replaced soon.

This is a general article about Porter. It goes over the "bad boss" allegations which have come out since she announced. The sum of it is that there is one disgruntled former fellow and a lot of anonymous complaints about her treatment of staff.

But many of these people absolutely believe in her as far as issues and her combative style, even if they don't want to work for her again.

Still the question is whether this style would translate to the Senate, where more collegiality is expected.

In the last session of Congress, Porter sponsored 54 bills, more than twice the median for members, according to OpenSecrets. Last year, some of her proposed legislation — on raising royalties on fossil fuel companies, on reclaiming taxpayer dollars from pharmaceutical companies that raised drug prices faster than the inflation rate — found a home in the Inflation Reduction Act.


The stressors — and perhaps the doubters and haters — will keep coming for Porter. Fellow California Reps. Barbara Lee and Adam B. Schiff, both Democrats, are also running for the Senate seat. Lee has been endorsed by Jayapal, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which Porter also belongs to, as well as the mayors of San Francisco, Los Angeles and Porter’s own city of Irvine. Schiff has so far been endorsed by 22 of the 40 Democrats in the state congressional delegation (to Porter’s zero, for now). Schiff’s campaign raised more than twice as much money as Porter did in the second quarter of this year. Porter, Lee and Schiff were the only candidates who reached double-digit support in a June poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, with Porter and Schiff separated by a statistically insignificant three percentage points.


The primary is in March. The top two vote-getters on the all-party ballot will advance to the general in November 2024. Schiff and Porter are the good bets right now — Los Angeles Magazine likened that epic matchup to “King Kong vs. Godzilla” — but the campaign hasn’t heated up yet.

 

MenaceKiller

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One of the coolest Democratic Party representatives continues to be put on "most vulnerable" lists: Sharice Davids, 3rd district of NE Kansas


I've met Sharice and she's done terrific things in the district. She's an amazing, empathetic, and diverse person. She's such a model contrast to the more boorish members of the other party, and she isn't particularly progressive, as Kansas does have a somewhat conservative streak. I just hope she continues to represent the great state!
 
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wco81

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So not a real big deal vote but on the Santos expulsion vote, Porter voted against and Schiff and Lee both voted for expulsion. All 3 are candidates for the CA Senate seat next year.

I think this was one of the votes where they knew he wasn't going to be expelled.

Porter's reasoning was that there are already legal processes for investigating/prosecuting Santos and she supports due process.

Doubtful this vote will be an issue in the Senate race.

But there are like a half dozen Republican members of the House from the CA delegation in districts which Biden carried in 2020. They won very narrow races and they all voted for Jim Jordan and for Mike Johnson, the MAGA candidates.

They themselves don't identify as MAGA in these districts.
 

Shavano

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My thoughts on my state (Colorado) races:
District​
IncumbentStatusOther Announced Candidates
1​
Diana Degette (D)Very safe DMorgan Law (I)
Dom Waters (U)
2​
Joe Neguse (D)Very safe DMarshall Dawson (R)
3​
Lauren Boebert (R)Vulnerable R, Frisch almost beat her in 2020Russ Andrews (R)
Jeffrey Hurd (R)
Curtis McCrackin (R)
Adam Frisch (D)
Anna Stout (D)
Adam Withrow (D)
Mark Elworth Jr. (L)
Gary Swing (U)
James Wiley (L))
4​
Ken Buck (R)Open Seat very safe R Trent Leisy (MAGA) (R)
Justin Schreiber (R)
Deborah Flora (R)
Ike McCorkle (D)
John Padora (D)
5​
Doug Lambourn (R)Safe Rnone?
6​
Jason Crow (D)Very safe Dnone?
7​
Brittany Petterson (D)Safe DRon Tupa (I)
8​
Yadira Caraveo (D)Vulnerable DGabe Evans (R)
Scott James (R)
Dan Ward (U)

I = Independent
U = Unity Party
L = Libertarian
 
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wco81

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Kristen Sinema, who hasn't formally declared whether she will run for re-election, has seen her fundraising dry up from Democratic donors in the last 1-2 years.

However, she has over $10 million cash on hand while Gallego, the leading Democratic candidate for the AZ seat, has about $5 million while seeing good fundraising numbers in the past year.

But the polling is tricky so far.

A Republican survey from late October that was presented last week to Senate GOP chiefs of staff showed that Lake led Gallego by less than 1 point, 37 percent to 36.5 percent, according to a person familiar with the poll. But that's assuming Sinema is in the race. According to the poll, she received 15.4 percent of the vote.

A two-way ballot — with Sinema out — found Gallego up 3 points over Lake, 46 percent to 43 percent. The Cygnal poll was of 600 likely general election voters and had a nearly 4 point margin of error.


That polling largely jibes with a survey the National Republican Senatorial Committee presented to GOP senators last week that showed Lake losing to Gallego by 4 points, within the margin of error, with Sinema pulling 17 percent of the vote. NRSC said Sinema was drawing more from Republicans than from her former party.

“It wouldn't surprise me that she would draw more from the Republicans than Democrats,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), describing Arizona as a “center-right state.” That math, he said, “would worry me.”

Sinema is clearly pulling from donors on both sides of the aisle, perhaps more so than most other Senate candidates. Of her donors this year, about 640 have a donation history on only ActBlue, Democrats’ online fundraising platform; nearly 200 have a history on WinRed, its GOP counterpart; and roughly 370 have donated on both platforms.

Sinema raised about $53,000 from donors who have also given to the super PAC arm of No Labels, according to the POLITICO analysis. And she shares eight donors with the Senate Leadership Fund, a Minority Leader Mitch McConnell-aligned super PAC that supports Senate GOP candidates.

GOP leaders have somewhat embraced Lake’s candidacy, and party strategists feel she will be unbeatable in a primary because of her vice-like grip on the base. That opens a window for Sinema — or Gallego — to appeal to centrist Republicans in the mold of the late Sen. John McCain or former Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AYSTX9uO6TgOnQe-ViDZjKA
 
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Shavano

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Kristen Sinema, who hasn't formally declared whether she will run for re-election, has seen her fundraising dry up from Democratic donors in the last 1-2 years.

However, she has over $10 million cash on hand while Gallego, the leading Democratic candidate for the AZ seat, has about $5 million while seeing good fundraising numbers in the past year.

But the polling is tricky so far.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AYSTX9uO6TgOnQe-ViDZjKA
Sinema isn't a Democrat any more, so I'd think Gallego wouldn't have any trouble winning the nomination.
 

CPX

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Kristen Sinema, who hasn't formally declared whether she will run for re-election, has seen her fundraising dry up from Democratic donors in the last 1-2 years.

As well she should after that bullshit of switching immediately after re-election. At least Sanders always had the decency to run for his Senate seat as an independent. I'm of the humble opinion that voluntary change of party affiliation while in office should require resignation from said office but that would require more formal recognition of the party system alongside forcing mechanisms that don't exist even in most other countries that I know.
 

wco81

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Republicans in AZ are trying to depict Sinema as a liberal Democrat.

Because as an independent, she might pull votes from Republicans.


The new ad, titled “A Choice,” paints Sinema as being firmly behind President Joe Biden and his legislative agenda, voting with the president “100%” of the time and backing his climate initiatives in the Inflation Reduction Act. Not mentioned are the multitude of headaches and setbacks she dealt to Biden as she successfully worked to trim the IRA’s ambitions and preserve the Senate filibuster.

Conversely, the ad slams Gallego — whom the NRSC has nicknamed “Rotten Ruben” — in intensely personal terms. The spot points out that Gallego divorced his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, in 2016 just a few weeks before she gave birth to their first child, then blasts him for marrying a lobbyist, Sydney Barron, several years later. The ad closes by calling him a “deadbeat dad,” without evidence to support the claim.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AGXb1nsLsQFmRg1C7uDH8dQ


Meanwhile, Kari Lake has been making nice with establishment Republicans in the Senate and also trying to reconcile with McCain Republicans in AZ, in an effort to consolidate the GOP vote.

Some have supposedly advised her to stop talking about having the election for governor stolen from her in 2022.
 

theevilsharpie

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New York’s highest court orders congressional districts to be redrawn

CNN said:
New York’s highest court on Tuesday ordered the state to redraw its congressional maps, handing Democrats a major win as they seek to flip a key number of Republican-held seats in the upcoming 2024 election.

The decision upends a previously drawn map that led to Republicans flipping four seats, victories that helped the GOP win a majority in the House in 2022.

This is still a breaking news stub, so the text of the story may change substantially if you're reading it in the future.

In interesting update nonetheless. Republicans overperformed in New York in 2022, and the House seats they picked up there played a key role in Republicans eeking out a slight House majority.
 

Diabolical

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New York’s highest court orders congressional districts to be redrawn



This is still a breaking news stub, so the text of the story may change substantially if you're reading it in the future.

In interesting update nonetheless. Republicans overperformed in New York in 2022, and the House seats they picked up there played a key role in Republicans eeking out a slight House majority.
So New York joins Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and Ohio.
And I know Wisconsin is also quickly barrelling towards this as well, which is the source of all the Judge Protasiewicz related drama.

I wonder what other states have something in the hopper?
 

wco81

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Schiff has pulled ahead in a new poll for the CA Senate seat previously held by Diane Feinstein.

However, the real race is for second place for the runoff. Porter and Lee are splitting the more progressive vote and that may not only let Schiff get first place for the runoff in November (top 2 finishers in the jungle primary) but also let a Republican candidate get the second spot.

Here are the demographics splits among the candidates. The Israel-Hamas war may be one of the most obvious policy differences among the candidates.

Rep. Adam Schiff holds a clear lead in the race to represent California in the U.S. Senate, according to a new POLITICO | Morning Consult poll, leaving him well-positioned to advance after the upcoming March primary.

The fiercer fight is for the number two spot in the general election, with Republican Steve Garvey and Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee in a dead heat. Garvey has positioned himself as a Trump-agnostic moderate, while Porter and Lee are more closely associated than Schiff with their party’s progressive wing.

The scramble for second place will determine whether the November election will erupt into a protracted intraparty battle between two Democrats or a more lopsided red-versus-blue contest in staunchly liberal California.

Schiff, the 12-term Democrat from Burbank, leads with 28 percent of likely voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward supporting him. Former Los Angeles Dodgers star Garvey follows with 19 percent, while Porter has 17 percent and Lee notches 14 percent — a statistical three-way tie.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/A3EL7g6YmSlCu6HFHLUMG4Q

The findings show a notable bump for Garvey from previous polls of the race. Since he declared his candidacy in October, he has kept a minimal campaign presence with limited public appearances. The top Democrats, meanwhile, have been criss-crossing the state most of the year to woo their party’s base.

Breaking into the top two would be a coup for California Republicans, who have struggled in statewide races and risk being locked out of the contest in November if Garvey is unable to consolidate enough GOP voters.

Schiff’s lead is powered by advantages with Democrats, older voters and men. Among self-identified Democratic voters, Schiff (44 percent) easily outpaces both Porter (24 percent) and Lee (21 percent).

Porter and Lee are competitive among younger voters: The three Democrats are essentially tied with voters born in 1997 or later. But among seniors aged 65 and older, Schiff has a big lead with 37 percent to Garvey’s 22 percent, with Lee (13 percent) and Porter (12 percent) well behind.

Of the three major Democratic candidates, Schiff is the only man, and he is the top choice of 54 percent of male Democrats in the poll. But Schiff (35 percent) also has a slight lead over both Porter (29 percent) and Lee (27 percent) among Democratic women.

The primary has also revealed ideological differences among the Democratic candidates, and Schiff (45 percent) is easily the top choice of likely primary voters who describe themselves as liberals, leading Porter (23 percent) and Lee (20 percent).
Lee, the only major African American candidate, does have a slim advantage with Black voters. The Oakland lawma
ker leads Schiff, 31 percent to 24 percent.

While the three Democrats have expressed few differences on policy, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has been a rare flashpoint in the race. Lee, an anti-war icon, set herself apart by calling for a cease-fire in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack — echoing the rallying cry of her party’s left flank.

Schiff opposes a cease-fire, arguing Israel has a right to defend itself even as it should strive to limit casualties among Palestinian civilians. That position aligns with the Biden administration’s stance. Porter also followed the president’s lead until earlier this week, when she shifted to promote a “bilateral cease-fire” to end the violence.

If either Porter or Lee or both of them fail to make the runoff, will their supporters take their ball and go home, helping the Republican?
 

Shavano

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Lauren Boebert is running for CO's 4th CD instead of for re-election to the 3rd where she looks likely to be defeated for the Republican primary and was almost defeated by a Democrat last cycle. (this is the seat opened by Ken Buck announcing he won't run for reelection.) I think she sees it as "safer" for a Republican than the 3rd but I think it was only in danger of being taken by a Democrat because she has been such a bad Rep.

She's definitely the biggest name to announce for CD4 but her negatives are pretty high.
 
D

Deleted member 877868

Guest
I also am guessing some power brokers in the GOP pushed her to move districts. Whether she wins the 4th isn't too important--if she doesn't whoever beats her in the primary will. But in the 3rd she was certain to win the nomination, but based on demographic changes and the closeness of the '22 election, she had a very high chance of losing the seat for the GOP. Now they can try to get a moderate candidate on the ballot who will be much more competitive in the general. My suspicion is they may lose the 3rd regardless, but this positions the GOP to best contest it.
 

Shavano

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I also am guessing some power brokers in the GOP pushed her to move districts. Whether she wins the 4th isn't too important--if she doesn't whoever beats her in the primary will. But in the 3rd she was certain to win the nomination, but based on demographic changes and the closeness of the '22 election, she had a very high chance of losing the seat for the GOP. Now they can try to get a moderate candidate on the ballot who will be much more competitive in the general. My suspicion is they may lose the 3rd regardless, but this positions the GOP to best contest it.
I don't think she was certain to win the GOP nomination in the 3rd.
 

Bardon

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I also am guessing some power brokers in the GOP pushed her to move districts. Whether she wins the 4th isn't too important--if she doesn't whoever beats her in the primary will. But in the 3rd she was certain to win the nomination, but based on demographic changes and the closeness of the '22 election, she had a very high chance of losing the seat for the GOP. Now they can try to get a moderate candidate on the ballot who will be much more competitive in the general. My suspicion is they may lose the 3rd regardless, but this positions the GOP to best contest it.
I think it's pretty clear that she moved because she rubbed her electorate the wrong way.
 

wco81

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First debate for the CA Senate seat with the 4 leading candidates.

Republicans appear to have another empty suit in former baseball player Steve Garvey, who was the object of derision and laughed at repeatedly.

Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AiXboOawzR6ugxTJ1xVzbngi

One of the tensest exchanges of the night came when the three Democrats all pressed Garvey to say whether he’ll vote for former President Donald Trump a third time.

Garvey repeatedly refused to answer, saying he would decide before election day. “At that time, I will make my choice.”

Porter retorted with a zinger: “What they say is true: Once a Dodger, always a Dodger,” she said as the audience howled. “This is not the minor leagues. Who will you vote for?”


Another brutal moment came as Garvey responded to a question about his plan to address the state’s worsening homelessness crisis. Garvey, a first-time candidate, described how he approached unhoused people and “touched them and listened to them.”

He suggested he was the only candidate to approach the issue that way because his opponents are “career politicians” who’ve done nothing to solve the crisis.

Lee, who was unhoused decades ago after she left an abusive relationship as a young single mother, called Garvey’s comment about meeting and touching homeless people belittling. “I’ve just gotta say, as someone who’s been unsheltered, I cannot believe how he described his walk and touching,” she said. The audience burst into laughter.
 

wco81

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There are hints that Sinema doesn't plan to run to keep her Senate seat.

For one thing, she trails in just about every poll so far, third behind both Democratic and Republican candidates.

For another, she hasn't started collecting signatures to get her name on the ballot as an independent. She needs 45k signatures by early April.

But above all, she's been spending freely on private jet flights for herself. The usual convention is that members of Congress fly commercial, just for optics alone, even though many Senators and Congressmen are multi-millionaires.

Sinema must be starting private life early

More likely, Sinema will finish out her term, then cash in with Big Pharma or some private equity firm. Former senators, especially those who leave on their own terms, can pretty much write their own tickets to millionaire land where jets are a dime a dozen.
So why not get started early?

The Daily Beast reports that Sinema has flown privately 11 times since 2020 on the taxpayers’ dime, including five times over the past year. That’s 11 more times than Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has done so.

Sinema’s spokesman, Hannah Hurley, said traveling by private plane gives Sinema more time to connect with Arizonans in every corner of the state.

All that connecting, however, comes with a cost … to us.

One of Sinema’s trips – an August hop from Washington, D.C., to the Grand Canyon for Sinema and four of her staffers – cost us $50,000. This, so that Sinema could stand front and center at the ceremony where President Joe Biden formalized the creation of a new national monument, Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni.

Read in USA TODAY: https://apple.news/AksQd4oVcSrmB5hRGIItu7g
 
D

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Sinema remains a political mystery to me, the way she behaved in office didn't mesh that well with her political career prior to being in the Senate. i have sometimes wondered if she was just plain corrupt, got into a Senate seat and came under the influence of moneyed interests really quickly. I read a political profile of her that interviewed people who had dealt with her earlier in her political career, when she was a State politician, and some of the people she had ran against said some of her negative behavioral traits were around back then, just less publicized.

She likely could have sailed to reelection for a number of years if she had just been a reasonable center-left Democrat. Mark Kelly shows how you can try to maintain that degree of centrism while also being loyal to the party and party leadership. Instead she took contrarian positions on a number of issues where it would have cost her nothing to go with the Democratic party line, and it cost her basically her entire base in Arizona. Really odd to understand from a political strategy perspective unless, again--she is just outright corrupt and sold out to moneyed interests. In that latter narrative she doesn't care about the political consequences and likely has plum jobs (do nothing corporate board positions etc) lined up that will make her massively wealthy in a couple years.
 
D

Deleted member 877868

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I like Porter, but abandoning a House Seat for a speculative Senate bid has ended many promising political careers--Joe Kennedy found that out up in Massachusetts. To some degree you have to be realistic about your chances, and I don't know that polling ever showed Porter had a real good chance of winning the seat over the other big Dem names that came out. (Kennedy actually at least had strong polling on the back of his misguided move, he was regularly shown as trouncing Markey early on, but he got out campaigned and out maneuvered badly. Kennedy clearly expected Markey, due to age and initially weak polling, to simply retire in the face of a strong threat, instead he fought back and won, and Joe's career went down for the count.)
 

GohanIYIan

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I think the reality is being a House member is a bit of a dead end job, and if you're an ambitious politician you eventually have to try to make the leap to something else. I also wouldn't write off either of them forever. Kennedy has some kind of diplomatic post in the Biden administration, and I'm sure if Porter wants a job in Democratic politics or adjacent organizations she can get one.
 

Lt_Storm

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I think the reality is being a House member is a bit of a dead end job, and if you're an ambitious politician you eventually have to try to make the leap to something else. I also wouldn't write off either of them forever. Kennedy has some kind of diplomatic post in the Biden administration, and I'm sure if Porter wants a job in Democratic politics or adjacent organizations she can get one.
Yep, one of the thousand most powerful lawmakers in the country, "dead end job". It's a bit like observing that the typical CEO has little room for advancement, and is therefore a dead end job...
 

karolus

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I think the reality is being a House member is a bit of a dead end job, and if you're an ambitious politician you eventually have to try to make the leap to something else. I also wouldn't write off either of them forever. Kennedy has some kind of diplomatic post in the Biden administration, and I'm sure if Porter wants a job in Democratic politics or adjacent organizations she can get one.
Nancy Pelosi, Newt Gingrich, and Sam Rayburn would probably beg to differ. To be successful in it requires playing the long game and a lot of work behind the scenes that may not make headlines, but is vital to successful government initiatives and political strategies.