The South OF China Sea Thread

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CluelessOne

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  • #1
    I don't see a specific thread dealing with South China Sea situation, so I am starting a thread on this topic.
    To refresh memory, https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/ is a partial map of the claimants of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It doesn't show the EEZ of the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Russia.

    The main problem here is China, both the PRC (a.k.a. Mainland China) and the RoC (a.k.a Taiwan), claims do not comply with UNCLOS 1982. Since currently Taiwan is a toothless tiger with a delusion of grandeur, the world only focuses on the PRC claims, which is a mistake in my opinion. The US should press Taiwan to drop those claim while Taiwan is dependent mostly on the US. How Taiwan shall do so without ruffling independence claim fears from the PRC is the key.

    Latest CSIS newsletter on South China Sea situation: https://amti.csis.org/nervous-energy-china-targets-new-indonesian-malaysian-drilling/.
     
    yd

    yd

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  • #4
    CluelessOne said:
    I don't see a specific thread dealing with South China Sea situation, so I am starting a thread on this topic.
    To refresh memory, https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/ is a partial map of the claimants of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It doesn't show the EEZ of the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Russia.

    The main problem here is China, both the PRC (a.k.a. Mainland China) and the RoC (a.k.a Taiwan), claims do not comply with UNCLOS 1982. Since currently Taiwan is a toothless tiger with a delusion of grandeur, the world only focuses on the PRC claims, which is a mistake in my opinion. The US should press Taiwan to drop those claim while Taiwan is dependent mostly on the US. How Taiwan shall do so without ruffling independence claim fears from the PRC is the key.

    Latest CSIS newsletter on South China Sea situation: https://amti.csis.org/nervous-energy-china-targets-new-indonesian-malaysian-drilling/.
    Click to expand...

    I recognize a China bot when I see one. Pathetic. Get back behind your great firewall foul troll.
     
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    CluelessOne

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  • #6
    Bad Monkey! said:
    Taiwan doesn't drop its claims, because that would imply that it has authority to negotiate and assert territorial claims separate from that of the Mainland, and is thus, independent. It's not going to do so until it's ready to rip the declared independence band-aid off.
    Click to expand...
    Correct, that is a sticky point which Taiwan can't do right now. However that past claim gives the PRC excuse that they are merely continuing and enforcing the previous mainland government (the Republic of China) borders. It would be nice to detangle the old claim which Taiwan can't do anything about it.
     
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    CluelessOne

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  • #8
    yd said:
    CluelessOne said:
    I don't see a specific thread dealing with South China Sea situation, so I am starting a thread on this topic.
    To refresh memory, https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/ is a partial map of the claimants of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It doesn't show the EEZ of the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Russia.

    The main problem here is China, both the PRC (a.k.a. Mainland China) and the RoC (a.k.a Taiwan), claims do not comply with UNCLOS 1982. Since currently Taiwan is a toothless tiger with a delusion of grandeur, the world only focuses on the PRC claims, which is a mistake in my opinion. The US should press Taiwan to drop those claim while Taiwan is dependent mostly on the US. How Taiwan shall do so without ruffling independence claim fears from the PRC is the key.

    Latest CSIS newsletter on South China Sea situation: https://amti.csis.org/nervous-energy-china-targets-new-indonesian-malaysian-drilling/.
    Click to expand...

    I recognize a China bot when I see one. Pathetic. Get back behind your great firewall foul troll.
    Click to expand...

    China bot? Why? Because I dare to point out that Taiwan was and still is a party for making this mess?
    Shall I point out another unpleasant fact? At the very least the United States and Australia have known and recognized the potential of territorial conflict in the South China Sea since the formulation of the concept of UNCLOS EEZ. Both have done jackshit about it at the time. The United States had opportunity to sort this out as a broker respected by all parties at the time but chose to do nothing. In the early 1980s the the politics were different. The United States certainly were aware of the problem by 1985. And still they prefer the status quo at the time.
     
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    CluelessOne

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  • #10
    arcite said:
    Taiwan merely demands their rights to exist as a democratic country; they saw what China did to Hong Kong.
    Click to expand...
    Taiwan had always wanted that since they were kicked out of the UN. Hongkong just open the eyes of those who were bamboozled by the Chinese ethnicity brotherhood mantra.
    The mantra is "You have Chinese blood, therefore your ultimate loyalty is to the Chinese State".
    Nevermind they or their parents or grandparents were born in other countries and had become other countries citizens. Nevermind if Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai signed treaty with another country specifically disavowing said people and their descendants of Chinese citizenship and loyalty to the Chinese government.
     
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    Bad Monkey!

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  • #12
    CluelessOne said:
    Bad Monkey! said:
    Taiwan doesn't drop its claims, because that would imply that it has authority to negotiate and assert territorial claims separate from that of the Mainland, and is thus, independent. It's not going to do so until it's ready to rip the declared independence band-aid off.
    Click to expand...
    Correct, that is a sticky point which Taiwan can't do right now. However that past claim gives the PRC excuse that they are merely continuing and enforcing the previous mainland government (the Republic of China) borders. It would be nice to detangle the old claim which Taiwan can't do anything about it.
    Click to expand...

    It would also be nice if China wasn't threatening to invade and murder countless Taiwanese if they dare to assert that their de facto independence has become de jure. On the other hand, China doesn't need Taiwan's assent to cease its assholery.
     
    arcite

    arcite

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  • #13
    China military build-up in the Himalayas bordering India, military buildup on the coast near Taiwan, the dozens of militarized islands bordering Vietnam, Philippines, Australia ect.... continued support for N. Korea. The free world is under no illusion what the big picture is showing - the US finally has a foreign policy after four years of Trump, the pivot to Asia; they're executing it.
     
    Bardon

    Bardon

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  • #14
    CluelessOne said:
    yd said:
    CluelessOne said:
    I don't see a specific thread dealing with South China Sea situation, so I am starting a thread on this topic.
    To refresh memory, https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/ is a partial map of the claimants of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It doesn't show the EEZ of the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Russia.

    The main problem here is China, both the PRC (a.k.a. Mainland China) and the RoC (a.k.a Taiwan), claims do not comply with UNCLOS 1982. Since currently Taiwan is a toothless tiger with a delusion of grandeur, the world only focuses on the PRC claims, which is a mistake in my opinion. The US should press Taiwan to drop those claim while Taiwan is dependent mostly on the US. How Taiwan shall do so without ruffling independence claim fears from the PRC is the key.

    Latest CSIS newsletter on South China Sea situation: https://amti.csis.org/nervous-energy-china-targets-new-indonesian-malaysian-drilling/.
    Click to expand...

    I recognize a China bot when I see one. Pathetic. Get back behind your great firewall foul troll.
    Click to expand...

    China bot? Why? Because I dare to point out that Taiwan was and still is a party for making this mess?
    Shall I point out another unpleasant fact? At the very least the United States and Australia have known and recognized the potential of territorial conflict in the South China Sea since the formulation of the concept of UNCLOS EEZ. Both have done jackshit about it at the time. The United States had opportunity to sort this out as a broker respected by all parties at the time but chose to do nothing. In the early 1980s the the politics were different. The United States certainly were aware of the problem by 1985. And still they prefer the status quo at the time.
    Click to expand...

    And yet no mention of the other contentious claims China has made in the area, such as with the Phillipines etc? No, just focusing on Taiwan definitely shows no agenda at all...
     
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    CluelessOne

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  • #15
    I mentioned in the first post that the map don't show the EEZ claims of Philippines, Korea and Japan. Perhaps you should re-read the first post. You could argue I should have got a better map or link to another site, but it is what is shown on the site. You have a beef with the map, talk to CSIS.

    Today link: https://news.usni.org/2021/11/18/ch...ssion-for-filipino-troops-on-brp-sierra-madre. How about them Philippines?
     
    Lt_Storm

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  • #16
    U-99 said:
    (As an aside, that map using similar colors for China/Taiwan is a data presentation war crime.)
    Click to expand...

    That's probably intentional. After all, Taiwan is an self-ruled part of China, which, I believe, is the still the official Taiwanese line.

    arcite said:
    Taiwan merely demands their rights to exist as a democratic country; they saw what China did to Hong Kong.
    Click to expand...

    Actually, they explicitly don't / can't demand that. After all, they very explicitly aren't a country, you know, because if they were a country, then they would be at war with China. Instead, they demand their rights to self-rule and democracy while avoiding saying anything whatsoever about whether or not they are a country.
     
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    flere-imsaho

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  • #20
    CluelessOne said:
    Since currently Taiwan is a toothless tiger with a delusion of grandeur, the world only focuses on the PRC claims, which is a mistake in my opinion. The US should press Taiwan to drop those claim while Taiwan is dependent mostly on the US. How Taiwan shall do so without ruffling independence claim fears from the PRC is the key.
    Click to expand...


    "If only people would give China everything it wants, they'll become a reasonable and constructive partner" is an interesting take.

    It's not as if we don't have historical precedent.
     
    yd

    yd

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  • #21
    arcite said:
    China military build-up in the Himalayas bordering India, military buildup on the coast near Taiwan, the dozens of militarized islands bordering Vietnam, Philippines, Australia ect.... continued support for N. Korea. The free world is under no illusion what the big picture is showing - the US finally has a foreign policy after four years of Trump, the pivot to Asia; they're executing it.
    Click to expand...

    You forgot the Djibouti 'strategic strongpoint'.....cause, you know, China, peaceful rise, yada yada.

    Hey, anyone wanna play some doubles tennis in China?

    Clueless, well, at least its in your name. Do they pay by the dim sum or obsequiousness of your posts in the motherland? Give our regards to Winnie, hope he is enjoying the art exhibit in Italy. Fucking trolls, it seems they are migrating from the SCMP.
     
    yd

    yd

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  • #23
    arcite said:
    The tennis story is really blowing up; I'll be very impressed if the Women's Tennis Association tells China to take a hike and pulls their tournaments there. Of course, lots of money is on the line and real courage is in short supply.
    Click to expand...

    I genuinely believe they will. It would be organizational suicide not to.
     
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    blindbear

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  • #24
    yd said:
    arcite said:
    China military build-up in the Himalayas bordering India, military buildup on the coast near Taiwan, the dozens of militarized islands bordering Vietnam, Philippines, Australia ect.... continued support for N. Korea. The free world is under no illusion what the big picture is showing - the US finally has a foreign policy after four years of Trump, the pivot to Asia; they're executing it.
    Click to expand...

    You forgot the Djibouti 'strategic strongpoint'.....cause, you know, China, peaceful rise, yada yada.

    Hey, anyone wanna play some doubles tennis in China?

    Clueless, well, at least its in your name. Do they pay by the dim sum or obsequiousness of your posts in the motherland? Give our regards to Winnie, hope he is enjoying the art exhibit in Italy. Fucking trolls, it seems they are migrating from the SCMP.
    Click to expand...

    I wonder if aggression a natural phase of any raising power. Looking back at history, I think all top powers have done something similar. I think it is wise to plan for China aggression. I do wonder is it really wish long term for USA to be world police though. While we like the think we are the "good guys", USA has done horrible thing in the past as well. And recently, we have done foolish things with our power. I really think local powers should increase their military spending and form closer allies is a better path forwards.

    Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Australia should have sufficient resource given their economic powers.
     
    yd

    yd

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  • #25
    I concur blindbear, as you get more domestic power its very tempting/easy to want to try to exert it elsewhere - especially if you are a resource hungry 1.x billion sized population with a historic grievance list (admittedly with some huge own goals - looking at you Mao and the Great China Famine) eyeing up the SCS as your own personal resource pool.

    Throw in a central government that is not elected and its very tempting to pull a 'Iran/North Korea' and try and distract your population with the shiney shiney of the evil foreign influence to blame - things are bad because of 'them'. That said, as Deng knew, closing yourself off to the 'foreign' and genuine criticism only leads to an insular likely to be worse off domestic situation. China is now, as best I can tell, loving the covid situation - it has allowed them to clamp down on all criticism, track its population, lock them up, disappear tennis players and blame outsiders as the source of any infections (even though it seems as news today indicates yet again it came from Wuhan).
     
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    blindbear

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  • #27
    Shavano said:
    The question is whether it is typically to the advantage of other powers to appease the aggression of other powers.
    Click to expand...

    It may not be an advantage for the countries but it may be a advantage for the controlling parties. Sometime, you just want to point to others. It is no different than USA politic. I think the old GOP understand how the game is played and most do not believe in their BS. Now, these old guards are replaced by truth believers.
     
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    flere-imsaho

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  • #28
    Is there an example from history where appeasement worked out?

    There are examples where states just surrendered, both with and without a fight, but I'd consider that different, in that sovereignity was given up.

    I can't think of a historical example where in the face of an aggressive hegemonic power another state (or states) managed to appease that power long enough to avoid invasion/war.
     
    Z

    zer0cool

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  • #29
    China has claimed the SCS since the Republic of China era. It wasn't an issue you heard about because China couldn't press or defend its claim and wasn't a challenger to US supremacy. It's only a dispute now since China has been more active in pressing/defending its claim in the past decade and does now challenge US hegemony in some areas. The US is involved because the US wants to maintain its global supremacy for as long as possible.

    By 2035, assuming China has become the largest economy in the world, operates 6 carrier groups, has 1000-2000 nukes on missiles including hyper-onic gliders, and operates more quiet subs than the US, there won't be a dispute any more, just like how there aren't any territorial disputes between Mexico or Caribbean countries with the US (or if there are you never hear about them and the US honestly wouldn't care). The geopolitical realities will simply evolve with the strengths of the key involved parties.
     
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    blindbear

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  • #30
    There are a lot of panned up anger in Han Chinese culture. Speaking a Han Chinese, I can see it in myself as well as my family and friends. This sort of culture influence can result in irrational decisions. One of the major claim to power of CCP is that they will never allows China to be mocked again. It is no that dissimilar from "American Exceptionalism" IMHO.

    Human like to think ourselves as the protagonist and then justify our actions. We may think of USA as the "good guy". And a lot of times, I do think we are the "less of the evil" (do noted that I am a American and are heavily influenced by American's culture). Ever with such rose tinned glasses, I can see a lot of fault and abuse in how USA uses it power. The sad truth is that smaller countries need to band together to ensure they are not being take advantage of by bigger power.
     
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    blindbear

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  • #32
    U-99 said:
    Sure, but in America we are allowed to criticize the current government and its historical past. If I bring up the Kent State Shootings the government won't censor my online activity, and if I talk about the Tulsa Race Massacre I won't be hauled off for realignment.
    Click to expand...

    It is truth at the moment, and I am happy of that. However, that is not guarantee. Self-censorship is also a thing. The recent law in Hong Kong may start the legal censorship in their media, but the Hong Kong media has started self-censorship for awhile now. We also have people in USA literally try to rewrite our history in the school books.
     
    S

    slymenstra hymen

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  • #33
    flere-imsaho said:
    Is there an example from history where appeasement worked out?

    There are examples where states just surrendered, both with and without a fight, but I'd consider that different, in that sovereignity was given up.

    I can't think of a historical example where in the face of an aggressive hegemonic power another state (or states) managed to appease that power long enough to avoid invasion/war.
    Click to expand...

    Thailand is the closest example that comes to mind.
     
    yd

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  • #34
    blindbear said:
    U-99 said:
    Sure, but in America we are allowed to criticize the current government and its historical past. If I bring up the Kent State Shootings the government won't censor my online activity, and if I talk about the Tulsa Race Massacre I won't be hauled off for realignment.
    Click to expand...

    It is truth at the moment, and I am happy of that. However, that is not guarantee. Self-censorship is also a thing. The recent law in Hong Kong may start the legal censorship in their media, but the Hong Kong media has started self-censorship for awhile now. We also have people in USA literally try to rewrite our history in the school books.
    Click to expand...

    That definitely is happening in HK now - the South China Morning Post is probably thinking 'maybe a comment section isn't such a good idea'. Posts certainly 'disappear' there that would not be contrary to their stated content policy. I was blocked for a while and when shown why, countered back that none of what was shown was contrary to their policy and was back a while later (being pro delta outbreak in HK may not be a popular opinion but its not against policy and its actually getting a lot more popular by the day). That said, disappearing posts are ones that simply have names like mentioning the former lawyer now in prison - Ms Zhang. Poof, gone. I was surprised to Peng being a name that showed up the other day given her continuing to be uh, missing shall we say.
     
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    blindbear

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  • #35
    yd said:
    blindbear said:
    U-99 said:
    Sure, but in America we are allowed to criticize the current government and its historical past. If I bring up the Kent State Shootings the government won't censor my online activity, and if I talk about the Tulsa Race Massacre I won't be hauled off for realignment.
    Click to expand...

    It is truth at the moment, and I am happy of that. However, that is not guarantee. Self-censorship is also a thing. The recent law in Hong Kong may start the legal censorship in their media, but the Hong Kong media has started self-censorship for awhile now. We also have people in USA literally try to rewrite our history in the school books.
    Click to expand...

    That definitely is happening in HK now - the South China Morning Post is probably thinking 'maybe a comment section isn't such a good idea'. Posts certainly 'disappear' there that would not be contrary to their stated content policy. I was blocked for a while and when shown why, countered back that none of what was shown was contrary to their policy and was back a while later (being pro delta outbreak in HK may not be a popular opinion but its not against policy and its actually getting a lot more popular by the day). That said, disappearing posts are ones that simply have names like mentioning the former lawyer now in prison - Ms Zhang. Poof, gone. I was surprised to Peng being a name that showed up the other day given her continuing to be uh, missing shall we say.
    Click to expand...

    I still kind of surprise that CCP decides this is the right approach. The nationalism is fairly strong right after the turnover of HK. I was certainly hopeful at the time, and looked forward to a stronger China. I think a softer approach in HK and may be ever in Mainland China would be better for the long term health of CCP and China in general. Some of these censorships sounds petty. I feel like make appearance of improvement would have been a better approach.

    But then, I am also surprised that the Activision board decides to stand behind their CEO instead of just dump him.
     
    Lt_Storm

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  • #36
    blindbear said:
    I still kind of surprise that CCP decides this is the right approach. The nationalism is fairly strong right after the turnover of HK. I was certainly hopeful at the time, and looked forward to a stronger China. I think a softer approach in HK and may be ever in Mainland China would be better for the long term health of CCP and China in general. Some of these censorships sounds petty. I feel like make appearance of improvement would have been a better approach.
    Click to expand...

    The last thing the world needs right now is a "stronger China". Ever since Ping really took off on his make China authoritarian again kick, things haven't gone well over there.
     
    yd

    yd

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  • #37
    China dropped the ball on Taiwan by breaking its word on 1c2s with respect to HK. Xi just had to get his grubby mitts messing around well in advance of even the halfway mark of the agreement. Those actions kicked off peaceful protests which kicked off yet more reactions and then everything went to shit and now China has basically usurped any semblance of 1c2s.

    Had China been smart and played the long game they should have ignored HK for 50 years and then been able to credibly show Taiwan it is an honest broker in its agreements. But nope, xi and his ego couldn't have that so he f'd it up. For such a presumably smart guy, he can't even handle cartoons of Winnie the poo. And now China wonders why Taiwan is 'nah, thanks but pass' on a glorious reunion.

    On a side note, I was surprised to see a tennis story at scmp - comment section teaming with Beijing bots tho.
     
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    blindbear

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  • #38
    yd said:
    China dropped the ball on Taiwan by breaking its word on 1c2s with respect to HK. Xi just had to get his grubby mitts messing around well in advance of even the halfway mark of the agreement. Those actions kicked off peaceful protests which kicked off yet more reactions and then everything went to shit and now China has basically usurped any semblance of 1c2s.

    Had China been smart and played the long game they should have ignored HK for 50 years and then been able to credibly show Taiwan it is an honest broker in its agreements. But nope, xi and his ego couldn't have that so he f'd it up. For such a presumably smart guy, he can't even handle cartoons of Winnie the poo. And now China wonders why Taiwan is 'nah, thanks but pass' on a glorious reunion.

    On a side note, I was surprised to see a tennis story at scmp - comment section teaming with Beijing bots tho.
    Click to expand...

    Smart people can act in a foolish way when ergo gets in their way. Just look at Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, they are supposed to be smart too. But you can see foolish decisions form them too. When you have that much power, it is easy to have it your way.

    I still do not understand Winnie the poo meme. I mean Winnie the Poo is a good guy, right? Forgive me for not familiar with Winnie the Poo.
     
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    CluelessOne

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  • #39
    blindbear said:
    There are a lot of panned up anger in Han Chinese culture. Speaking a Han Chinese, I can see it in myself as well as my family and friends. This sort of culture influence can result in irrational decisions. One of the major claim to power of CCP is that they will never allows China to be mocked again. It is no that dissimilar from "American Exceptionalism" IMHO.
    Click to expand...

    Pent-up anger (I assume that is what you mean?) on what exactly?

    Human like to think ourselves as the protagonist and then justify our actions. We may think of USA as the "good guy". And a lot of times, I do think we are the "less of the evil" (do noted that I am a American and are heavily influenced by American's culture). Ever with such rose tinned glasses, I can see a lot of fault and abuse in how USA uses it power. The sad truth is that smaller countries need to band together to ensure they are not being take advantage of by bigger power.
    Click to expand...

    Except in this case most of ASEAN countries are wary of their powerful neighbors. Probably only Singapore who is on good terms with all of them: India, Australia, Japan, PRC and the US. The rest have some distrust with at least one of them. So how can the ASEAN countries club together on their defense when they can't even agree on which neighbor the ASEAN should distrust most?

    Do remember that the original 5 founder nations created the ASEAN as a forum to resolve their own border disputes. In other words, Indonesia under Suharto leadership decided that it is cheaper to resolve their differences with Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines over dinners and hookers instead of buying weapons. No idea how Thailand got roped in.
     
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