Sprawling Russian Thread

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Wheels Of Confusion

Wheels Of Confusion

Ars Legatus Legionis
66,177
Subscriptor
  • #2
    Fragmenting the legitimacy of an authoritarian dictatorship is usually not great for executing a war on foreign soil.
    Obvious parallels to the Socialist revolution in 1917 during WWI. It seriously hampered the Russian war efforts as chaos reigned and loyalties fragmented. It should be mentioned that in that conflict, the common consensus of the people and soldiers was that the Tsar was good but was fed bad information (including his wife being literally a German agent; this was the common wisdom, not a fringe theory, inside Russia at the time) and surrounded by incompetent sycophantic boyar parasites who were the real reason Russia couldn't win on the field.
    In this conflict, the Russian media has been allowed to criticize Putin's underlings for the ongoing status of the 3-day Special Military Operation but not really Putin himself. Even Prigozhin has mostly aimed his bloviations at Shoigu.

    There's an obvious danger in relying too much on historical metaphors, (history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme...) but this is what jumps out at me.

    Personally I think Prigozhin has calculated that, with the Ukrainian advances and even more support from the Rest of the World pouring in to replenish what they've used, his fate was to be Putin's fallguy for the loss in the face of the offensive. So he calculated that his best chance of remaining intact was to run face-first into Putin's power structure and come through on the other side. How he plans to do this, I can't say. I can only hope Ukraine is able to use this chaos to purge the invaders from their borders (including Crimea).
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Alfonse, zenparadox, bjn and 1 other person
    S

    Shavano

    Ars Legatus Legionis
    59,253
    Subscriptor
  • #6
    hinduclient said:
    I wonder if the other side is through an 8th story window?
    Click to expand...
    More likely a bullet in the back.
    Wheels Of Confusion said:
    That's why he's been in Ukraine, surrounded by his private army. He's been gravity-proof.
    Click to expand...
    He's claiming to have reached Rostov, according to what I read. Not sure whether they mean Rostov Oblast or Rostov-on-Don. Either way though, that's in Russia, far from Ukrainian lines.
     
    • Like
    Reactions: ShotgunMage
    M

    Martian Static

    Ars Centurion
    217
  • #7
    Wheels Of Confusion said:
    Personally I think Prigozhin has calculated that, with the Ukrainian advances and even more support from the Rest of the World pouring in to replenish what they've used, his fate was to be Putin's fallguy for the loss in the face of the offensive. So he calculated that his best chance of remaining intact was to run face-first into Putin's power structure and come through on the other side. How he plans to do this, I can't say.
    Click to expand...
    A feint to negotiate with Ukraine and/or NATO to stand down and sit on the sidelines, maybe?

    It makes sense strategically to push for that now, maybe earn a scrap of goodwill to bank for the negotiations when the war ends, rather than continue slogging through to the bitter end and getting swept up with the rest of the Russian war machine's bigwigs in a storm of retribution.
     
    S

    Stern

    Ars Praefectus
    3,504
    Subscriptor++
  • #8
    It's not a coup, it's a march for justice!

    Personally I read Prigozhin's denouncement of Shoigu, calling the whole denazification thing a lie as a message to foreign powers that he's a rational being, and that since he doesn't want a marshal's star, he'd be willing to end the war as pointless. So just sit back, relax, and let him grab power and it'll all be good. Pinky promise!
     
    • Like
    Reactions: SuinusLatinus, dio82, bjn and 1 other person
    M

    mishka

    Ars Tribunus Militum
    2,854
  • #9
    Shavano said:
    More likely a bullet in the back.

    He's claiming to have reached Rostov, according to what I read. Not sure whether they mean Rostov Oblast or Rostov-on-Don. Either way though, that's in Russia, far from Ukrainian lines.
    Click to expand...
    Rostov-on-Don is sort of Wagner home town since well before the invasion so that goal is within his reach.
     
    Auguste_Fivaz

    Auguste_Fivaz

    Ars Praefectus
    3,374
    Subscriptor++
  • #11
    www.politico.eu

    Putin in crisis: Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership

    Russia’s FSB security service opens criminal case against mercenary boss, as he vows to steamroll over anyone who gets in his way.
    www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

    In a statement issued Friday night, the FSB security agency said it had “legally and reasonably begun criminal proceedings” against the Wagner Group warlord “for the organization of armed insurrection.”
    Click to expand...

    What we know so far

    Russia’s FSB security agency said it has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin “for the organization of armed insurrection.”
    Prigozhin claimed his troops have moved into Russia’s Rostov, and vowed: “If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!”
    The governor of Rostov warned residents to stay indoors.
    Russia’s defense ministry said Ukrainian forces are “taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation” on the front lines around Bakhmut.
    Prigozhin claimed around 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war on Ukraine.
    Putin has been briefed on the situation, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, according to Russian state media.
    Prigozhin’s move comes after he claimed 2,000 Wagner men were killed as a result of strikes ordered by Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
    Click to expand...

    The article speculates that there is nothing Prigozhin offers to Wagner that the state can't give them. If the FSB can detain him, there may be nothing to be done, but that is just a guess. Politico paints this as the end of Wagner. But, there are also armored vehicles in Moscow and check points setup around Rostov.

    Russian state media said checkpoints have been erected in Rostov-on-Don, close to the souther border with Ukraine. At the same time, unnamed officials told news agency TASS that security has been tightened in Moscow with national guard units deployed to keep the peace. Unverified videos purport to show armored vehicles parked on the streets of the capital.


    Russian state media also said Moscow’s Red Square will be closed to the public on Saturday, claiming the reason for the closure was because an event was to be held there.
    Click to expand...
     
    yd

    yd

    Ars Legatus Legionis
    20,764
    Subscriptor++
  • #17
    If recommend if you like Podcasts; The Foreign Affairs most recent one "What can history tell us about Ukiraine's future" if you want to pursue the historical angles and prognostications on what happens going forward.

    The parallels to all of this to WW1 are uncanny. How this can end with any party remotely 'happy' is highly uncertain. Who is going to pay to 'repair' Ukraine, who will be magnanimus to a now vastly weakened Russia assuming the current leadership is gone/replaced. This Wagner guy is just one of many decision makers who are puzzle pieces to ponder
     
    M

    m0nckywrench

    Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
    6,852
  • #18
    Case said:
    Geez, talk about Morder vs Isengard...he'd be even worse than Putin if he somehow got in charge of Russia.
    Click to expand...
    There can be no conventionally good Kremlin rulers because there are no such powerful stakeholders. The best NATO can hope for is stability and military withdrawal from Ukraine in return for cutting whatever deal is required. Future tyrants will need an internal scapegoat to facilitate purging internal opponents and NATO needs a stable Russia. Any new Kremlin middle management will have some cleanup to do and we don't yet know if Putin will retain power in what looks like a boyar squabble. It may be years before Putin dies.

    Post-Putin there can be no unconditional surrender that set the stage for reforming the Axis. That means Russia will not reform in any positive way for its former conquests. It may be contained if they're wise enough never to disarm and never believe helplessness confers safety.

    Unfortunately the same quislings who gleefully sold out Europe to get rich off trade with Russia will have an excuse when they inevitably do it again. They do not regret their actions. The monstrously stupid desire to believe in the goodness of others ensures bloody self-deceptions. (The West also helped industrialize the USSR in the 1930s.) Nothing was learnt from appeasing Stalin and nothing was learnt from appeasing Putin until he invaded Ukraine. A major problem will be the inevitable desire to see a successor Kremlin government as somehow decent. The West made that mistake with Putin and will make it again. Pretending NeoSoviets aren't gangsters is one thing. Believing it has horrible consequences like enabling the invasion of Ukraine. The next attempt to reassert Russian empire should be put off as long as possible.

    It took the magnificent example of Ukrainian resistance to keep NATO from selling them out to Moscow. Civilization owes an immense debt to the Ukrainian people. That debt should be repaid with massive development and future military aid.

    The oligarchy are not why Putin invaded Ukraine and its return would usefully slow reform of enemy armed forces. The worst possible outcome would be a professional, competent Russian military which can exist for only one reason, reconquest of Eastern Europe. Give the surviving oligarchy a path to profit by keeping Russia weak and they've great incentive to peace.

    EDIT: Wagner surrounding Russian MoD in Rostov. Note the red Z tank marking. Not much happening suggesting it could be theater:
    View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672439888862490624
     
    Last edited:
    • Like
    • Angry
    Reactions: SuinusLatinus and ham bulu
    Soothsayer786

    Soothsayer786

    Ars Tribunus Militum
    2,076
    Subscriptor
  • #31
    I guess I don't really need to sleep tonight. Seriously, this feels like some major history in the making. How does Russia continue the war in Ukraine? They are already fully invested. They can't hold the frontlines in Ukraine while a PMC is marching in open revolt to Moscow. I really, really hope this works out for the people of Ukraine and so far I'd say it is looking good.
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Neill78
    9600man

    9600man

    Ars Legatus Legionis
    12,055
  • #32
    We’re watching a civil war unfold in one of the largest countries in the world.
    Regardless of who wins at the end, there’s going to be an on going purge be it Prigozhin loyalists or Putin loyalists. And the oligarchs will be at it too!

    But I think it will play out differently depending on who wins:
    Putin wins, it’ll cement his hold on Russia. Wagner will be dismantled and anyone connected will be purged. Any oligarch who have secretly been rooting against Putin is going to realise they can’t do that anymore and probably be more eager to please Putin.

    Prigozhin wins, all of Putin’s top loyalists will either be purged and anyone lower will be given a chance to debase themselves.
    But the oligarchs - and this is where it’ll play out differently - won’t want Prigozhin as the new leaders, and so think this will lead to weeks if not months of infighting and instability as we go from one chosen leader to another as they all mysteriously die in typical comical Russian fashion. Fingers crossed a Russian oligarch dies from slipping on a banana. (I’m not really hoping anyone dies, but it’s not a stretch to assume we’re going to see some fatal purges the coming days.)
     
    You must log in or register to reply here.
    Jump to latest Follow Reply
    Jump to latest Follow Reply