Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

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Made in Hurry

Made in Hurry

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  • #1
    The original thread is locked, so since things are heating up again in Ukraine, perhaps a new thread is warranted.

    The cease-fire is over and twitter is boiling with posts about troop movements from both sides, while Foreign Minister Lavrov of Russia is warning that any escalation could destroy Ukraine:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukra ... SKBN2BO5F2

    I am going to dig up some more links, but i have read that Ukraine has 90.000 troops on alert, while Russia has sent 4000 confirmed troops and a huge amount of armor to the border. Draft has been called also in the Donbass region. NATO is on the alert as well.

    The US on the other hand seems to have drawn a line in the sand is offering Ukraine unwavering support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty:

    https://www.dw.com/en/us-pledges-suppor ... a-57070161
     
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  • #2
    Made in Hurry said:
    The original thread is locked, so since things are heating up again in Ukraine, perhaps a new thread is warranted.

    The cease-fire is over and twitter is boiling with posts about troop movements from both sides, while Foreign Minister Lavrov of Russia is warning that any escalation could destroy Ukraine
    Click to expand...

    It would appear, then, that, considering so far most of the escalation has been coming from the Russian side, Russia has resolved to destroy Ukraine. I am disappointed with Mr. Lavrov; usually he is more adroit at agitprop.

    Crimea has become an expensive millstone around Russia's neck, and has placed it in a weak position. Given the water situation in Crimea, all Ukraine has to accomplish to avoid loosing is to maintain the status quo. Meanwhile, Russia is already loosing dozens of millions of Dollar each month, and must change the status quo in order to change this.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -for-putin
     
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    Made in Hurry

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  • #3
    What is not yet clear to me if this is Ukraine wanting to retake Donbass, of if this is Russia trying to fix their Ukrainian engangement, positioning troops to secure the area from Crimea to Mariupol.

    Ukraine now militarily isn't the same as it was last time, so it will be a costly war if it escalates.


    Fighting has escalated around the Donetsk airport:

    https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/137 ... 39042?s=20

    And video of Ukrainian deployment of armor into Donetsk and Lugansk region:

    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/ ... 82407?s=20

    I am adding the live map of what is going on as well:

    https://liveuamap.com/
     
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    Made in Hurry

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  • #5
    U-99 said:
    Are these uniformed Russian troops or "volunteers?" If the latter, there's no reason why the West can't bomb their positions.

    We made a huge mistake being hands-off in Ukraine last time, and a decisive defeat could topple the Russian regime. Indeed, Ukraine was used to prop up Putin's popularity then and will do so again now if unchecked.
    Click to expand...

    These are uniformed troops, and confirmed by Russia.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tens ... -d5t7n0kwt

    Another one with troop movements: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... oy-it.html (Yes, dailymail is icky, but it sums up a lot that is going on in twitter)
     
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  • #6
    U-99 said:
    Are these uniformed Russian troops or "volunteers?" If the latter, there's no reason why the West can't bomb their positions.

    We made a huge mistake being hands-off in Ukraine last time, and a decisive defeat could topple the Russian regime. Indeed, Ukraine was used to prop up Putin's popularity then and will do so again now if unchecked.
    Click to expand...

    "We" nothing. That was exactly one person's decision, and why know why he made it.
     
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    GohanIYIan

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  • #9
    Happysin said:
    U-99 said:
    Are these uniformed Russian troops or "volunteers?" If the latter, there's no reason why the West can't bomb their positions.

    We made a huge mistake being hands-off in Ukraine last time, and a decisive defeat could topple the Russian regime. Indeed, Ukraine was used to prop up Putin's popularity then and will do so again now if unchecked.
    Click to expand...

    "We" nothing. That was exactly one person's decision, and why know why he made it.
    Click to expand...

    Sure. Obama thought the strategic importance of Ukraine was not worth risking directly military conflict with Russia. I'm not sure that calculus has actually changed.
     
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    Made in Hurry

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  • #10
    Belarus also deploys:

    https://defence-blog.com/news/army/bela ... raine.html

    Interestingly after signing a joint partnership program on March 2nd (In Russian)

    https://iz.ru/1131457/2021-03-02/minobo ... artnerstva

    And more interestingly, a tweet about signing a document about coordinated military policy:

    https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1377 ... 40291?s=20

    This can't end well at all, something is up and it seems planned by Russia all along, or maybe not?

    There is an official decree from the Ukrainian President Zelensky commanding the reintegration of Crimea, oddly enough no mention of Donbass as far as i can see:
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polyti ... rimea.html

    So Russia reacts to a bit of a hidden declaration of war?
     
    Technarch

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  • #12
    Made in Hurry

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  • #13
    Technarch said:
    Made in Hurry said:
    Biden and Zelensky talked about the escalations:

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... f-ukraine/
    President Biden affirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.
    Click to expand...
    Click to expand...

    But does this translate to any kind of kinetic support?
    Click to expand...

    I think that is what everyone is waiting for, the same was communicated to Ukraine also from the UK today, but what it actually means remains to be seen.

    Russia says that they're not part of the conflict, but any active support from NATO/EU will in Ukraine will see Russia counter this. (ref Lavrov).

    Fighting has escalated along all the frontline during the last few hours, so i guess we'll see which bluff is called in not too long time.
     
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    m0nckywrench

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  • #14
    The West didn't cry itself to sleep over Ukraine when it was Soviet and it wasn't considered worth making a place infested with so many Russians part of NATO (I agree).

    It's an affordable frozen conflict in a place expendable to external players. Like the Cold War I proxy squabbles it's low-risk way to angle for advantage.The EU need Russian natgas more than they need Ukraine so don't expect much. Russia has the initiative and skill to exploit it.
     
    Megalodon

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  • #15
    m0nckywrench said:
    Russia has the initiative and skill to exploit it.
    Click to expand...
    That is the intuitive answer but it seems like they actually fucked up rather badly by occupying Crimea without securing access to water resources, which makes Russia the party that can't tolerate the status quo indefinitely. They entered into a regional conflict to assert themselves but only ended up demonstrating they can't even squash their tiny neighbors properly.
     
    Made in Hurry

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  • #16
    This is just my point of view, but it seems to me we're going back to the Russian dream of controlling the Black Sea and the strait of Bosphorous that dates back to forever it seems. I do not think Russia cares much about Ukraine as long as it's thrown away from the Black Sea.

    If Russia will attempt anything, they will probably try to take the area from Odessa to Mariupol, and there is also Transnistria to think about if this escalates any further.

    Turkey is silent so far, sending drones to the Ukrainian army that are now in use in Donbass, while buying S-400's from Russia.

    If twitter is to be trusted, there is just an immense amount of hardware being transported around with unconfirmed reports of Belarus also deploying a security force to the north towards Lithuania (Kaliningrad). There has been heavy fighting going on today and it seems to escalate every hour.
     
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    m0nckywrench

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  • #17
    Russia doesn't have to care too much about the locals, only controlling the territory. Disposable civilians give it time to experiment and learn. It's debatable if civilian life is much use in territory held for strategic reasons for what doesn't exist need not be fed, watered or policed. Russia has options available the West does not because human life is even cheaper less valuable there. If diversion projects work out the suffering may be short term, but no one in the Kremlin feels it while propagandists can blame Ukraine.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/business/eco ... ter-crisis

    https://jamestown.org/program/the-geo-e ... in-crimea/

    If Russia succeeds with its water plans by 2040 (professed goal was 2025) that's not many years away in historic terms. Russia can pursue the mix of limited war with Ukraine and strategic water infrastructure actions. There is no hurry and Russians understand non-linear war.

    The dream of Black Sea conquest is ancient because it makes strategic sense. It's something Russia should seek in its own interest, which of course conflicts with other interests.
     
    Happysin

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  • #19
    If Russia succeeds with its water plans by 2040 (professed goal was 2025) that's not many years away in historic terms. Russia can pursue the mix of limited war with Ukraine and strategic water infrastructure actions. There is no hurry and Russians understand non-linear war.
    Click to expand...

    Putin's view is going to be a lot shorter than 2040. He's already in his 60s, and I have no confidence he has a care for what Russia looks like after he dies.
     
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    GohanIYIan

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  • #20
    Happysin said:
    If Russia succeeds with its water plans by 2040 (professed goal was 2025) that's not many years away in historic terms. Russia can pursue the mix of limited war with Ukraine and strategic water infrastructure actions. There is no hurry and Russians understand non-linear war.
    Click to expand...

    Putin's view is going to be a lot shorter than 2040. He's already in his 60s, and I have no confidence he has a care for what Russia looks like after he dies.
    Click to expand...

    Maybe, maybe not. A decade from now Putin will be Biden's current age. Biden ostensibly plans to serve two terms. Putin matching that age gets him to 2039 or so.

    There's no guarantee either of them lives that long, but it's not outside the realm of possible.
     
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  • #22
    Happysin said:
    If Russia succeeds with its water plans by 2040 (professed goal was 2025) that's not many years away in historic terms. Russia can pursue the mix of limited war with Ukraine and strategic water infrastructure actions. There is no hurry and Russians understand non-linear war.
    Click to expand...

    Putin's view is going to be a lot shorter than 2040. He's already in his 60s, and I have no confidence he has a care for what Russia looks like after he dies.
    Click to expand...

    Even if he cared for what happens to Russia after his death, it may not be enough. By all accounts Tito cared greatly for Yugoslavia, and yet he was not able to ensure an orderly transition after his death.
     
    Made in Hurry

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  • #23
    I'll get back to post updates in the theater a bit later in the evening.

    Ukraine is joining NATO in Iraq and in naval operations in the Mediterranean: (In Russian) They are currently active in Kosovo and performing training in Afghanistan:


    https://hromadske.radio/news/2021/04/03 ... i-henshtab

    Seems to me a bit tit for tat in this news, but NATO/EU/West isn't careful anymore about moving Ukraine into the western sphere of influence as they were in 2014.


    Yesterday there was 21 cease-fire violations (although the cease-fire was not extended after April 1st), 2 Ukrainian servicemen wounded, no information about separatist losses. (liveuamap.com)

    It's a bit quiet otherwise today, positioning and preparing seems to be the theme of the day.
     
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    karolus

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  • #24
    Made in Hurry said:
    I'll get back to post updates in the theater a bit later in the evening.

    Ukraine is joining NATO in Iraq and in naval operations in the Mediterranean: (In Russian) They are currently active in Kosovo and performing training in Afghanistan:


    https://hromadske.radio/news/2021/04/03 ... i-henshtab

    Seems to me a bit tit for tat in this news, but NATO/EU/West isn't careful anymore about moving Ukraine into the western sphere of influence as they were in 2014.


    Yesterday there was 21 cease-fire violations (although the cease-fire was not extended after April 1st), 2 Ukrainian servicemen wounded, no information about separatist losses. (liveuamap.com)

    It's a bit quiet otherwise today, positioning and preparing seems to be the theme of the day.
    Click to expand...

    That certainly puts the situation in a new light. Not surprisingly, a quick scan of mainstream US sources such as NYT or WAPO turns up little to none on the topic. Regarding Ukraine in general, only some references about cleaning up corruption. Any personal feelings aside, it would be interesting how the USA would be reacting if Putin were looking at pulling Latin American nations into his sphere of influence in a similar manner. Looks like Cold War Redux is gaining steam again—leaving off where the COVID isolations had put it in hiatus for a time.
     
    Made in Hurry

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  • #25
    karolus said:
    Made in Hurry said:
    I'll get back to post updates in the theater a bit later in the evening.

    Ukraine is joining NATO in Iraq and in naval operations in the Mediterranean: (In Russian) They are currently active in Kosovo and performing training in Afghanistan:


    https://hromadske.radio/news/2021/04/03 ... i-henshtab

    Seems to me a bit tit for tat in this news, but NATO/EU/West isn't careful anymore about moving Ukraine into the western sphere of influence as they were in 2014.


    Yesterday there was 21 cease-fire violations (although the cease-fire was not extended after April 1st), 2 Ukrainian servicemen wounded, no information about separatist losses. (liveuamap.com)

    It's a bit quiet otherwise today, positioning and preparing seems to be the theme of the day.
    Click to expand...

    That certainly puts the situation in a new light. Not surprisingly, a quick scan of mainstream US sources such as NYT or WAPO turns up little to none on the topic. Regarding Ukraine in general, only some references about cleaning up corruption. Any personal feelings aside, it would be interesting how the USA would be reacting if Putin were looking at pulling Latin American nations into his sphere of influence in a similar manner. Looks like Cold War Redux is gaining steam again—leaving off where the COVID isolations had put it in hiatus for a time.
    Click to expand...

    I think we'll see Russia doing exactly that with Venezuela and Cuba in the not so distant future, but there is also China and NK to think about these days and i am afraid the US will just overextend themselves, which could be a cue for both Russia and China to fix the black sea and Taiwan problem. (more and more Chinese incursions into Taiwanese waters lately).

    You also have Biden removing military capabilities in the middle-east these days, but redeploying to where remains a mystery so far:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-trim ... 1617279687
     
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    Shavano

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  • #26
    m0nckywrench said:
    Russia doesn't have to care too much about the locals, only controlling the territory. Disposable civilians give it time to experiment and learn. It's debatable if civilian life is much use in territory held for strategic reasons for what doesn't exist need not be fed, watered or policed. Russia has options available the West does not because human life is even cheaper less valuable there. If diversion projects work out the suffering may be short term, but no one in the Kremlin feels it while propagandists can blame Ukraine.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/business/eco ... ter-crisis

    https://jamestown.org/program/the-geo-e ... in-crimea/

    If Russia succeeds with its water plans by 2040 (professed goal was 2025) that's not many years away in historic terms. Russia can pursue the mix of limited war with Ukraine and strategic water infrastructure actions. There is no hurry and Russians understand non-linear war.

    The dream of Black Sea conquest is ancient because it makes strategic sense. It's something Russia should seek in its own interest, which of course conflicts with other interests.
    Click to expand...

    They'd have to take on Turkey to really *control* the Black Sea. They already have *access* to the Sea of Azov at Rostov on Don and they control the Kerch straits; that amounts to access to the Black Sea.
     
    Made in Hurry

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  • #28
    Shavano said:
    US news is remarkably devoid of information on the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
    Click to expand...

    The usual media is keeping silent. I asked even our #1 newspaper in Norway about it as we have a service where you can ask and get an answer pretty fast, and they didn't even bother to answer me. Vaccines and covid-19 and celebrities is the only thing they write about.

    Deutche Welle has been awake on this though it's among their most read articles.
     
    Made in Hurry

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  • #30
    Shavano said:
    The FT has this headline about yesterday's Biden/Zelensky meeting:
    Biden offers support to Ukraine and warns of Russian ‘aggression’
    Click to expand...

    The scare quotes are theirs, not mine. WTF? 21 attacks yesterday doesn't meet their editorial standards for calling it aggression straight up?
    Click to expand...


    According to BBC, Russia has mobilized 28 battalion tactical groups consisting of between 20-25.000 men. That is in addition to the 28.000 active separatists and 32.700 currently in Crimea that has been mentioned before.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778
     
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    karolus

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  • #34
    Technarch said:
    Shavano said:
    US news is remarkably devoid of information on the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
    Click to expand...

    They barely covered it the last time around, but the total blackout in US media right now seems unusual.
    Click to expand...

    Coming from an international background—and being surrounded by people from around the world—personally find the lack of news depth troubling. It essentially reinforces stereotypes of an American-centric worldview—even in a time when the US is no longer the undisputed superpower who can call the shots with impunity.
     
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    Alexander

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  • #35
    Technarch said:
    Shavano said:
    US news is remarkably devoid of information on the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
    Click to expand...

    They barely covered it the last time around, but the total blackout in US media right now seems unusual.
    Click to expand...
    That just means that nothing the US is doing right now requires broad public support.

    As soon as something comes up that requires congress to pass a funding bill or whatever, you'll see stories popping up in WaPo, NYT, Politico. You know, babies being tossed out of incubators and that sort of thing.

    That's not to minimize the real suffering of Ukrainian civilians caught in the crossfire, but to say that the media doesn't dance to their tune. They don't have the phone numbers for the WaPo editorial desk, a bunch of people at the Pentagon do though.
     
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  • #36
    Alexander said:
    Technarch said:
    Shavano said:
    US news is remarkably devoid of information on the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
    Click to expand...

    They barely covered it the last time around, but the total blackout in US media right now seems unusual.
    Click to expand...
    That just means that nothing the US is doing right now requires broad public support.

    As soon as something comes up that requires congress to pass a funding bill or whatever, you'll see stories popping up in WaPo, NYT, Politico. You know, babies being tossed out of incubators and that sort of thing.

    That's not to minimize the real suffering of Ukrainian civilians caught in the crossfire, but to say that the media doesn't dance to their tune. They don't have the phone numbers for the WaPo editorial desk, a bunch of people at the Pentagon do though.
    Click to expand...

    So, it ain't quite time to rattle the saber yet? And oh, yeah, that saber would be nuclear, wouldn't it?

    But if we could just get rid of that One Bad Guy..

    ...it will end up like a Hollywood Western movie. The kind Ronald Reagan used to play in.
     
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