So there is a lot of back and forth now on if Biden should step down after the lackluster (or unmitigated disaster, depending on your views) debate performance. The real question becomes WILL Biden continue on without challenge, step down, or face a convention crisis.
ars predictions... does Biden get replaced before the convention
- Thread starter LTParis
- Start date
Before the convention? Absolutely not. If anything happens at all, I'm going to stand by my prediction that he accepts the nomination and afterward steps aside for Harris.
I'll vote he just marches on. I don't think there is anyone who can tell joe not to run, you don't get to that position without having a giant ego. I wish he would step aside now, because accepting the nomination and letting harris take over is a losing strategy. nobody likes her.
What am I missing here? You don't talk about replacing a candidate just because he performed poorly in a debate. Sometimes, someone has an off day, and it's just one aspect of being a politician. It takes a whole string of failures to depose someone.
Democrats are currently extremely high-anxiety about the whole election, so there are a lot of articles. Hot-take writers are making bank I think.
Change candidate at this point will further lower the chance of winning. Also, no high quality politician would be interested. It would be a lot easier to run in 4 years. We are going with either Biden or Harris at this point.
I am certainly worry, but we are locked in.
I am certainly worry, but we are locked in.
I don't know if he will, but I hope that he does - because I don't want Trump to be president, and it seems like if Biden is the nominee he's going to lose. I do think it's entirely up to Biden. No one is going to challenge him and win if he doesn't voluntarily step aside.
Polling has been clear for a long time that voters are concerned about Biden's age. He validated those concerns in a cataclysmic way.
This would probably be catastrophic though. I would imagine a 1-5% loss of voters if Harris "ascends" to the position.
You kinda do when your candidate is 81, had a poor performance, and was already struggling to have a commanding lead to a literal felon candidate who wants to enact a fascist state. The fact that Trump is doing "so well" in the polls prior is terrifying and now squishy voters will almost certainly not come out to play, or worse vote for Trump.
Not disputing that at all, but it's also the least catastrophic option if we're assuming Biden isn't going to be the nominee. At least that that option has institutional continuity.
[EDIT] For clarity, I'm treating Biden's replacement as a thought exercise for this thread. I don't think it's actually going to happen.
I fail to see how Biden isn't replaced. Democrats will have to spend every hour of every day between now and November trying to defend Biden's mental health, and that will be a tough row to hoe after last night. The only thing else they can do aside from that is to keep yelling that Trump is a convicted felon who is going to destroy democracy, only yell louder. I doubt that will be any more of a winning strategy now than it was before.
Even if replacing Biden won't prevent Trump winning a second term, it could very well help down-ballot Democrats win, who would act as a bulwark against a president Trump.
Even if replacing Biden won't prevent Trump winning a second term, it could very well help down-ballot Democrats win, who would act as a bulwark against a president Trump.
A lot of the media have learned exactly nothing from 2016, where the same type of sensatinalist bollocks contributed to Trump's win.
Who gives a fuck about what's actually going on, we got clicks to sell.
The question is, "by what process do you think he can be replaced?"
Before we even get to "should he" there is a very real "can he" question that has to be addressed. I'll post the lay of the land as a baseline for anyone that wants to work it out.
The candidate is chosen by delegates. Those delegates were chosen at the primary in their respective states. Those delegates are loyal Biden voters who are accountable to no-one else. They don't have to take orders from leadership or anyone else. So basically, the Democratic Leadership could pitch a fit and demand change, but they don't have the power to affect change. In theory, Biden himself could not force those delegates to vote for someone else.
So with that all in mind, the question of "how does someone else get chosen" is a very real, practical one.
As I mentioned, that puts them under no obligation to vote for anyone else, but does lead to utter chaos at the convention. that won't happen unless there's consent among the delegates for whom they will vote, and good luck herding 4000 cats in this tiny timeframe.
Unrelenting pressure needs to be brought to bear on Biden—and his wife—to convince him to step aside. Even trotting out the 25th Amendment, if only as a threat to increase the pressure, shouldn't be ruled out. Biden is going to lose this November—it's about sure a thing as as there ever is in politics. If one truly thinks Trump is as bad as many claim, then no wicket is too sticky nor the size of the shitstorm too large to try to keep him out of the White House.
Let's say this does happen (it won't, but this is a thought exercise thread anyway). As I mentioned above, what does that mean for the delegates? At best, you're begging for complete chaos at the convention. At worst, no clear Democratic candidate at all.
That Trump is doing "so well" does not say any positive about the polls' methodology or about the media. (See the notable lack of "concern" about Trump's age and mental condition.)
Even if Biden had blown past all expectations, the media would have likely dragged down his ratings by force post-debate, much like they did for Gore and HRC who both had very high immediate returns from their debates before the in-place pre-debate narration of "Democratic candidates stink" took over again.
Edit: formatting
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Mechanistically it seems pretty straightforward. We're talking about an nomination, not a draft. Biden can just say he's not accepting the nomination. Maybe the delegates would insist on voting for him again, but I think more likely not.
Herding 4000 cats is the job of the party leader. Your suggestion of handing off to Harris with no contest is both queenmaking and preventing Harris from demonstrating the ability to herd 4000 cats.
Think it would also be a good time to point out what's being voted for—the president is only the top ticket holder. What about the rest of the administration? Running the country is a team sport. Which team promises better success for you and the country.
This needs to be hammered home.
This needs to be hammered home.
There was a recent article in The Washington Post on the heuristic Biden uses when people promote ideas or people to him—he asks if they have run for office. It may not be the best measure, but does highlight that people who've been through the electoral process know how to sell the message, and have experience with the sausage making.
Collectively, we on the Ars fora may have good ideas, but how many of us have had to sell them to the public. And no, informed B2B or nominations don't count. It's the same for anyone pitching directly to government.
Based on her showing in the 2020 primaries, that would be a valid indication. Since then, she's had a low profile. Question is, could she rise up to fill the void if needed? Does she have the skills and charisma for popular outreach?
Maybe she does, maybe she doesn't. But are we sure Biden has the skills and charisma at this point? Prior to the debate, all indications were he was losing. The reason so many people are freaking out is this was supposed to be the turning point. I think anyone who comes of some kind of "Biden steps aside" situation is going to be an underdog in the race. The relevant question is whether their odds of having a moment that upends the race is better than Biden's. And I think the answer is probably "yes".
Anyone else, who have presidential ambition and were considered, would have just wait 4 more years. I know people like to talk about Trump for life but Trump is old himself as well. He may not able to run again in 4 years.
Harris is the only obvious choice as a replacement for Biden. The question would be do Harris has a higher chance than Biden.
Harris is the only obvious choice as a replacement for Biden. The question would be do Harris has a higher chance than Biden.
I don’t think they can force him out if he doesn’t want to go - he has enough pledged delegates that his nomination is assured (as far as I understand it).
I think Biden needs to do some soul searching. I can understand not performing at your best if you’re ill (why did his campaign push through and let him debate in that state if the cold was the primary reason?). I can even understand the open mouthed stare if you’re congested and not quite all there due to the illness or whatever you’re taking to combat it.
But is that what’s really going on here?
We’ve already had anecdotes of Biden being in cognitive decline (Robert Hur’s - I think his name - report). Have the dems been trying to hide this from public view? To make excuses and try to discredit anyone who would say otherwise?
Is Biden physically and mentally capable of doing this job for the next 4.5 years?
In part, this was a problem of optics.. I think if you just read the transcript of the debate, you might think Biden won quite handily (analogous to an extent to how radio listeners thought Nixon beat JFK).
I think if Biden wants to continue, he needs to definitively show that he’s capable. He needs to get out there. Declining opportunities to speak to the American people (like the Super Bowl) is not going to cut it. If he doesn’t think he can perform in those scenarios when healthy, I think he needs to step aside.
I think Biden needs to do some soul searching. I can understand not performing at your best if you’re ill (why did his campaign push through and let him debate in that state if the cold was the primary reason?). I can even understand the open mouthed stare if you’re congested and not quite all there due to the illness or whatever you’re taking to combat it.
But is that what’s really going on here?
We’ve already had anecdotes of Biden being in cognitive decline (Robert Hur’s - I think his name - report). Have the dems been trying to hide this from public view? To make excuses and try to discredit anyone who would say otherwise?
Is Biden physically and mentally capable of doing this job for the next 4.5 years?
In part, this was a problem of optics.. I think if you just read the transcript of the debate, you might think Biden won quite handily (analogous to an extent to how radio listeners thought Nixon beat JFK).
I think if Biden wants to continue, he needs to definitively show that he’s capable. He needs to get out there. Declining opportunities to speak to the American people (like the Super Bowl) is not going to cut it. If he doesn’t think he can perform in those scenarios when healthy, I think he needs to step aside.
I mean, the anecdotes that fit the Trump-coronation-cum-#resistance-ratings-subscription narrative that the media seems to really want. Here’s a different conversation from the Hur interview that makes Biden look less like a vegetable and more like a person:
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Biden needs to bow out or he will lose in November and take a few others with him. The only people who can convince him of that need are Obama and Jill. If he stays in the race and loses big, the DNC will be burnt down by the large number of members saying that Biden was too old 4 years ago. Maybe he has some energy in reserve he can pull out in the next few weeks, but the debate did a lot of damage that will be hard to undo with swing voters.
I think he ought to bow out and some moderate midwesterner like Klobuchar should take over the ticket, but that would never happen. The people with the clout in the party to get themselves put in as the replacement are people like Newsom, who would lose, and Harris, who would be the default choice and would lose even worse.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
It seems like any semi-popular Democrat Governor should be able to beat Trump as long as they are slightly moderate for a Dem and under 70 years old. It honestly shouldn't be that hard if centrist, independent, and swing voters had somewhat of a reasonable option to choose from other than staying home.
BobTheFourth
Ars Praefectus
Everyone who says that Biden should step down is six months too late (or more). The entire idea of finding a new candidate four months before the election basically comes off as a combination of bedwetting and concern trolling because it will guarantee a D loss in the fall. It's pure wishcasting and is also dumb.
If you have the energy to freak out over Biden having an off day, you have the energy to go convince people to not vote for the brain-addled racist gifter felon Trump instead.
If you have the energy to freak out over Biden having an off day, you have the energy to go convince people to not vote for the brain-addled racist gifter felon Trump instead.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
I think people that are concerned don't see it as having an off day. Every politician has a bad interview, a bad rally, and a bad debate. The concern with Biden is that his age alone is enough to deter a significant pool of voters, and the media bites of him seeming old and addled are all over social media and have an influence on voters. The debate performance poured gasoline on an already smoldering fire.
The voting public desperately wants a normal candidate to vote for so people are grasping at any hope to switch horses. As it is, our choices are a really bad Dem candidate with one foot firmly in the grave and a bombastic sociopath as the other option. People are tired of both parties.