The Fall of a Republic? Perpetual French Political thread

Dr Nno · Jun 9, 2024

Today was Election Day in France and the EU, to elect the new European Parliament.

The results in France are not definitive at the time of this post, but the Rassemblement National (far right, lead by the Le Pen family) is the clear winner, with more than 30% of the votes, sending around 24 of the 81 French MEP to Bruxelles and Strasbourg. The clear loser is Renaissance, the Presidential majority party, with less than 16%. The Socialist Party is third with 14%. In total, the Far Right and Nationalists parties should reach almost 40%. That's a lot of proto-fascists in my country, and a bit hard to swallow for me.

It's apparently also a bit hard to swallow for our President Emmanuel Macron. But he has a little more power than most here, so he can say and do things that others can´t. So he decided to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale, our lower chamber of the parliament, and call for new elections (2 turns, 30th of June, 7th of July). Marine Le Pen is overflowing with joy at this very moment.

Macron is trusting the intelligence and reason of the French voters. I'll be more pragmatic, and think that this is the first real chance of the far-right to reach the power in France. The winner of the Legislative elections will get the control of the government, and the President could become a secondary figure.

The last time this procedure was invoked was with Jacques Chirac in 1997 ( who lost and had to call the Socialists to lead the Government), and was largely considered as the worst political decision of the 5th Republic in France, and everyone thought it was the last time ever it would happen. Macron is apparently dumber than that.

My opinion: The Right (Macron and conservatives) is in ruins after this European vote, the Left is divided between several parties with totally opposites objectives and methods. The population is torn on several international subjects that blur the vision of the internal situation (on Ukraine, on Israel/Gaza). The Far-Right is ideally placed to do a short and BlitzKrieg campaign (20 days to the vote!) and become the first party in France and apply the worst of their political objectives. They can't govern alone, and they can´t make alliances. France may become ungovernable, and this may put our Republic in danger.

We'll see in a month.

LizandreBZH · Jun 9, 2024

The "cohabitation" (French political situation that describes a parliamentary majority different from the president) maybe a way to show French voters how ineffective and impotent a far right majority / plurality would be. 4d chess, very risky. But let's be honest : Marine Le Pen was the predicted winner of the presidential election in 2027.
It might work. Fingers crossed.

karolus · Jun 9, 2024

Looks like the stakes are rising everywhere at the moment. For those not of the betting sort, it's certainly been stressful.

LizandreBZH · Jun 9, 2024

And the worms are crawling out of the woodworks. I was on discord with my wow guild when someone (Belgian I think) said that maybe Hitler should have won. We might have to prepare for when the dams will break and all that was unspeakable will become speakable.

LizandreBZH · Jun 9, 2024

I had hoped that Europe would eschew its trump brainworm, considering we have much less religiosity.

Genome · Jun 9, 2024

I think this is an extremely risky gamble from Macron but it might, as LizandreBZH says, prove effective by showing that RN won't be able to rule efficiently. He's playing a highly dangerous game, though.

This thread brought something up in my mind. Ever since The Power That Is decided that we didn't deserve a miscellaneous thread, I've sort of been wondering where discussions like the EU elections, European politics and the politics of other regions might fit. Maybe this should be a Perpetual European Politics Thread? Localized versions for each interesting nation will run foul of the thread necro rule.

baba264 · Jun 9, 2024

To say this is depressing to me would be a gross understatement.

My analysis of the dissolution :
Macron hopes there will be a reaction vote against the historic success of the far right that will take his party as a focal point because, considering the low scores of the left, they won't seem to most as a credible alternative/counter to the RN the way they were in the last legislative elections (when NUPES was seen as a credible alternative to both Macron and the far right). If things go as he hopes it could be a master play (for him) as he would, at the same time, destroy the left and regain a significant majority allowing him to push through all the right wing reforms he wants to without much pushback.
It must be noted that participation for the EU elections was very low, so there is a really significant pool of voters who may make for very different results in the legislative elections. Moreover, historically, EU elections have often been used to express protest votes as they are seen as less important and impactful, so voters may change their mind for national elections.

Still, the feeling I get is that Macron is playing with matches in the middle of a France drenched in gasoline, and whatever outcome we get at the legislative elections will be disastrous for the left.

Dr Nno · Jun 9, 2024

What I find despicable from Macron (and tbh the entire French political caste) is that the EU elections has become a purely national vote, with national consequences. The French part of the EU parliament is small, and the rise of the Far Right is a general phenomenon that won't be solved with a local dissolution. For a pro-EU president, Macron is really short-sighted.

Genome said:
Maybe this should be a Perpetual European Politics Thread? Localized versions for each interesting nation will run foul of the thread necro rule.

Could be. But my subject is more the local consequences of the situation, and less an analysis of the continental results of the vote. That may merit its own thread indeed.

Soriak · Jun 9, 2024

Dr Nno said:
Macron is trusting the intelligence and reason of the French voters.

Worked out great for David Cameron.

Europe has a number of structural issues that it seems largely unwilling to address. The consequence is a continent that is increasingly getting poorer and managing a decline, particularly relative to growing US and Chinese economies. I run into a lot of super talented and hardworking Europeans in the US and in Asia who don't think they have meaningful career opportunities in their home countries. People aren't leaving because they can make 10% more -- they're leaving because they go from 40k to 200k. That's exactly the kind of brain drain we're used to seeing from developing countries.

In other contexts, that has led to popular uprisings (like the Arab Spring). In Europe, we may see the democratic version of that: voting for people who vow to burn things down. If you think (perhaps not wrongly) that the current parties are unable to turn around the decline, the only option you have is to introduce a shock to the system. But it seems the centrist parties haven't figured out that rather than demonizing voters, they should reflect on their policy choices that may be driving people into the arms of people they don't particularly like. Sensible people very often vote for candidates whom they don't personally like, but who they think will effect the kind of change that is necessary. Making the far-right less likeable, which seems to be the current strategy, is pushing the wrong button.

Soriak · Jun 9, 2024

Dr Nno said:
Macron is trusting the intelligence and reason of the French voters.

Worked out great for David Cameron.

Europe has a number of structural issues that it seems largely unwilling to address. The consequence is a continent that is increasingly getting poorer and managing a decline, particularly relative to growing US and Chinese economies. I run into a lot of super talented and hardworking Europeans in the US and in Asia who don't think they have meaningful career opportunities in their home countries. People aren't leaving because they can make 10% more -- they're leaving because they go from 40k to 200k. That's exactly the kind of brain drain we're used to seeing from developing countries.

In other contexts, that has led to popular uprisings (like the Arab Spring). In Europe, we may see the democratic version of that: voting for people who vow to burn things down. If you think (perhaps not wrongly) that the current parties are unable to turn around the decline, the only option you have is to introduce a shock to the system. But it seems the centrist parties haven't figured out that rather than demonizing voters, they should reflect on their policy choices that may be driving people into the arms of people they don't particularly like. Sensible people very often vote for candidates whom they don't personally like, but who they think will effect the kind of change that is necessary. Making the far-right less likeable, which seems to be the current strategy, is pushing the wrong button.

LizandreBZH · Jun 9, 2024

baba264 said:
To say this is depressing to me would be a gross understatement.

My analysis of the dissolution :
Macron hopes there will be a reaction vote against the historic success of the far right that will take his party as a focal point because, considering the low scores of the left, they won't seem to most as a credible alternative/counter to the RN the way they were in the last legislative elections (when NUPES was seen as a credible alternative to both Macron and the far right). If things go as he hopes it could be a master play (for him) as he would, at the same time, destroy the left and regain a significant majority allowing him to push through all the right wing reforms he wants to without much pushback.
It must be noted that participation for the EU elections was very low, so there is a really significant pool of voters who may make for very different results in the legislative elections. Moreover, historically, EU elections have often been used to express protest votes as they are seen as less important and impactful, so voters may change their mind for national elections.

Still, the feeling I get is that Macron is playing with matches in the middle of a France drenched in gasoline, and whatever outcome we get at the legislative elections will be disastrous for the left.

First, the left has actually increased its share of the votes. Significantly, more than 30% if you add socialists, greens, communists and LFI.

The center / right of center has collapsed and the traditional right has not recovered.

So I disagree, the left will be the real opponent of the far right and Macron might gamble on a "cohabitation".

Second, the turnout is good for European elections.

Auguste_Fivaz · Jun 10, 2024

After reading a politico.eu analysis of the election results, I got the feeling another catastrophe like BREXIT was looming and Macron was Cameron and calling an ill fated plebiscite. I can only hope I'm wrong.

Macron bets the house in election to break far-right momentum in France

After a humiliating defeat at the hands of Le Pen’s National Rally, France’s president is now making a high-risk roll of the dice.

www.politico.eu

Dr Nno · Jun 10, 2024

A quick reminder of the rules: 577 MPs (députés) will be elected in as many circonscriptions, based on geography, no real gerrymandering here. each individual election is done in a 2 rounds system. All candidates are present on the list, and in the 1st round you need the majority (50% plus 1) of votes to be elected. After that, candidates with more than 12.5% of the votes can stay for the second round, where a plurality of votes is enough to win. This system usually leads to a lot of candidates on the first round in each circonscription, and alliances between the 2 rounds to counter specific parties. The short delay to organize the campaign will necessarily limit which parties can field candidates in all 577 circonscriptions.
Additionally, all parties with more than 5% of the votes have a large part of their campaign reimbursed by the State, and public financing of the parties is proportional to their representation in the Assemblée Nationale.

Morning news.

Marine Le Pen declared that the Rassemblement National is ready to assume a government role. She's the one happy with Macron's decision, the only one in fact.
The Left leaders (totaling just a little more than 31% of the voters yesterday) are not opposed to an agreement for a single candidate per circonscription. The negotiations should be quick, the candidates must declare before Friday evening.
Macron's party announced that they won't field candidates against current MPs belonging to the Republican Arc (codeword for excluding Rassemblement National's MPs and Far-Left party La France Insoumise's MPs). This last point puzzles me, as it looks like a deliberate action to prevent the people from voting honestly for their preferred party.
Most pundits think that this is a move from Macron to let the RN be in charge for 2 years and a half, let them botch everything, and have a presidential election where the French voters see the light and oust Le Pen and her ilk. Most pundits think that this is a stupid idea however.

And to be clear, Le Pen only want to be president, so she will send Jordan Bardella (Current RN's president and front runner for the EU elections) to be Prime Minister when they win the Legislative elections. But she will be the one who decide anyway.

demultiplexer · Jun 10, 2024

Soriak said:
In other contexts, that has led to popular uprisings (like the Arab Spring). In Europe, we may see the democratic version of that: voting for people who vow to burn things down. If you think (perhaps not wrongly) that the current parties are unable to turn around the decline, the only option you have is to introduce a shock to the system. But it seems the centrist parties haven't figured out that rather than demonizing voters, they should reflect on their policy choices that may be driving people into the arms of people they don't particularly like. Sensible people very often vote for candidates whom they don't personally like, but who they think will effect the kind of change that is necessary. Making the far-right less likeable, which seems to be the current strategy, is pushing the wrong button.

I feel like people forget that Japan went through all of this. Closing off, becoming very far-right, stagnating economically as a result of already being pretty much on top. I see Europe going there much more than true revolution. Japan is still a pretty far-right racist shithole these days. But rich, well-organized and nice as well.

Actual civil revolutions don't happen in countries that are this comfortable. Generally speaking, people in Europe have their wants and needs and established communities in order. People aren't going to give that life up. That kind of economic desperation happens at $5k/year, not $50k.

I'm not saying the rise of the far-right in all its facets isn't worrying, just that from the inside and looking at it with some historical context, it looks to me much more like a Japan than a Venezuela.

Soriak · Jun 10, 2024

The median salary in France is EUR 25k, before taxes — so half the people make less than that. And at 27k, a 30% marginal tax rate kicks in. The youth unemployment rate is at 17%. It’s 21% in Italy and 35% in Spain. I think we really underestimate how poor much of western Europe is. And it’s worse in the East

LizandreBZH · Jun 10, 2024

Soriak said:
The median salary in France is EUR 25k, before taxes — so half the people make less than that. And at 27k, a 30% marginal tax rate kicks in. The youth unemployment rate is at 17%. It’s 21% in Italy and 35% in Spain. I think we really underestimate how poor much of western Europe is. And it’s worse in the East

Before income tax. It is net employee, so after social taxes.

Thank You and Best of Luck! · Jun 10, 2024

demultiplexer said:
Actual civil revolutions don't happen in countries that are this comfortable. Generally speaking, people in Europe have their wants and needs and established communities in order. People aren't going to give that life up. That kind of economic desperation happens at $5k/year, not $50k.

Generally speaking they don't happen hardly ever no matter what the conditions are.

Humans have a very strong bias toward the status quo regardless of what the circumstances of that status quo actually are.

Shavano · Jun 10, 2024

Thank You and Best of Luck! said:
Generally speaking they don't happen hardly ever no matter what the conditions are.

Humans have a very strong bias toward the status quo regardless of what the circumstances of that status quo actually are.

Doesn't seem to have helped Macron and his party.

Demento · Jun 10, 2024

Still don't get how the press can call it the "new" right wing or neo-fascism. There's nothing new or neo about it. Marine's not her father until you scratch the varnish and see underneath. FN (and therefore RN) are good, old fashioned fash.

Shavano · Jun 10, 2024

Demento said:
Still don't get how the press can call it the "new" right wing or neo-fascism. There's nothing new or neo about it. Marine's not her father until you scratch the varnish and see underneath. FN (and therefore RN) are good, old fashioned fash.

they have new branding though. That's what counts.

Entegy · Jun 10, 2024

Most democracies are going in for a VERY rough time. I have a feeling the United States and United Kingdom are going to get a bit of a reprieve just because of how bad Trump actually was (I think Biden will win 2024) and how long and incompetently the Cons have been in power respectively, but the rest of the free world is falling rightward. Power and money is flowing to the already rich and powerful at an accelerating rate.

On a side note, I just love the word député. One of the few times French is simpler than English. Here in Canada, the federal government and provincial governments each have a different "Member of" name for their elected members, but they are all just députés in French.

Dr Nno · Jun 10, 2024

Shavano said:
they have new branding though. That's what counts.

That's the scary part. Le Pen's Front National becomes Bardella's Rassemblement National, and suddenly everything is fine, people can vote for them like the 40 last years did not happen. This infuriates me.

Neverm1nd · Jun 10, 2024

Entegy said:
Most democracies are going in for a VERY rough time. I have a feeling the United States and United Kingdom are going to get a bit of a reprieve just because of how bad Trump actually was (I think Biden will win 2024) and how long and incompetently the Cons have been in power respectively, but the rest of the free world is falling rightward. Power and money is flowing to the already rich and powerful at an accelerating rate.

On a side note, I just love the word député. One of the few times French is simpler than English. Here in Canada, the federal government and provincial governments each have a different "Member of" name for their elected members, but they are all just députés in French.

In the EU elections more broadly, the far-right lost seats in most European countries. It's that they gained enough in France and Germany, and they have relatively many seats, which gives them an increase in seats in total. Still, with EPP declaring that they'd rather cooperate with the social democrats and the liberals, the far-right should have relatively little influence in the EP the next five years. That, and the fact that they mostly fight amongst themselves.

Facekhan · Jun 10, 2024

I also don't understand why Macron wants to have an election now. Isn't the point of snap elections so that the party in power can try to pick a time when they'd win? Sunak and Macron seem to be committing political suicide.

karolus · Jun 10, 2024

Sunak was essentially toast no matter what time the election would be held—his behavior over D-Day kind of underscores that. Macron is taking a huge gamble. Whether it pays off is an open question.

Genome · Jun 10, 2024

Facekhan said:
Sunak and Macron seem to be committing political suicide.

Sunak had to call a GE before the end of the year, Parliament can only be seated for five years and he saw the polling. Better to get it over with and hope for the best. It just turned out that he’s a complete idiot when campaigning.

Macron is apparently just insane.

LizandreBZH · Jun 10, 2024

Shavano said:
they have new branding though. That's what counts.

Marine Le Pen has tried to distance herself and the party from traditional antisemitism and racism (in French, the "~~normalisation~~ dédiabolisation" of her party). She presents herself as the best party to protect French jews and has put on display a variety of "token" muslims from x nth generation. The party is officially against new immigration but welcoming to assimilated immigrants and their children.

Well, so goes the marketing. It doesn't make most of its voters less racist of course...

The irony is that Jordan Bardella would not be French if the rules they want to change concerning nationality had been applied to him...

LizandreBZH · Jun 10, 2024

Facekhan said:
I also don't understand why Macron wants to have an election now. Isn't the point of snap elections so that the party in power can try to pick a time when they'd win? Sunak and Macron seem to be committing political suicide.

The positive view is that he expects the far right to win the parliamentary elections and so he is sacrificing the rest of his "quinquennat" to prove that the far right are incompetent and cannot enact their policies. In the constitutional context of "cohabitation", the president still holds a lot of power and can act as a counter power to the government.

The negative view is that he is deeply delusional and really hopes to coerce all the other political forces in a republican alliance against the far right and so creates a new situation of me or chaos.

flipside · Jun 10, 2024

LizandreBZH said:
The positive view is that he expects the far right to win the parliamentary elections and so he is sacrificing the rest of his "quinquennat" to prove that the far right are incompetent and cannot enact their policies. In the constitutional context of "cohabitation", the president still holds a lot of power and can act as a counter power to the government.

The negative view is that he is deeply delusional and really hopes to coerce all the other political forces in a republican alliance against the far right and so creates a new situation of me or chaos.

Sadly I believe the latter, since he took office he has become increasingly delusional. To the point no one takes his inconsequential, aloof, self enamoured babbling seriously anymore in the rest of Europe. No idea how the perception inside France is, but people certainly didn‘t vote for him anymore. I fear this just him overestimating himself again. I do hope I‘m wrong, too much is at stake.

blindbear · Jun 10, 2024

flipside said:
Sadly I believe the latter, since he took office he has become increasingly delusional. To the point no one takes his inconsequential, aloof, self enamoured babbling seriously anymore in the rest of Europe. No idea how the perception inside France is, but people certainly didn‘t vote for him anymore. I fear this just him overestimating himself again. I do hope I‘m wrong, too much is at stake.

Delusion is a common problem for leaders. I used to think it is more a problem in authoritarian countries but it seems it is very common ever in democracy as well.

Auguste_Fivaz · Jun 10, 2024

Shavano · Jun 10, 2024

Facekhan said:
I also don't understand why Macron wants to have an election now. Isn't the point of snap elections so that the party in power can try to pick a time when they'd win? Sunak and Macron seem to be committing political suicide.

Quite different cases. Sunak is forced to have an election by about the end of the year and his decision to have that this summer reflects the reality that his party's prospects have been getting worse month by month. Logically the sooner the election, the less the damage (not that they're not still in danger of a near complete wipeout). Macron dissolving the National Assembly is a bit or a head scratcher. Had he not dissolved the NA, they'd have been forced to hold new election in 2027.

Dr Nno · Jun 11, 2024

I think Macron is a typical example of people rising to fame surrounded by yes-men. Yes, he's right, yes, this plan is perfect, yes, everyone will follow him, yes, everyone loves him. But in reality, he has no idea how polarizing he is. No one is indifferent to Macron. You're either a non-racist Right voter, and you love him, or you're anything else, and you hate what he does.

The dissolution is Macron's decision alone. All of the députés of his own party are in dire distress because of this decision, they are not ready at all for the campaign. All the ministers left everything to go campaign for their circonscription, if they are not elected they have nothing left. Several major future laws are either delayed or abandoned : a project of legalization of Euthanasia, the validation of Small Nuclear Reactors in the Energy mix, Fusion of the different public Medias (radio, TV).

Morning news:

All 4 main Left parties reached an agreement last night. LFI (radical left), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and the Greens should theoretically present a single candidate in all circonscriptions. They will publish their platform today, and we'll see how divisive points of view will be reconciled. Ukraine, Gaza, future Prime Minister, those are hot disagreements for those parties.
Marine Le Pen had a meeting with her niece, Marion Marechal, who defected to another Right wing party a few years ago. The niece is bringing 5% of the votes from the Sunday's elections, so she became a valid ally. Never mind that the president of the small party is considering Le Pen as his mortal enemy. Infighting is is the ADN of the Far-Right, that's what may save us all.
The historical conservative party, Les Républicains, is making noises about the campaign, but can neither deny or confirm that they will reach local agreements with Le Pen's party to avoid unproductive competition. De Gaulle would be proud of what his legacy has become.

JimCampbell · Jun 11, 2024

There was a very interesting episode of 'The Bunker' podcast yesterday (Monday) on this subect that's worth a listen.

I know post-and-runs are bad form, but it's difficult to summarise the conversation. TL;DL version is probably that Macron's decision here might not be as strategically crazy as a lot of commentators are suggesting. When they widen the discussion out to the EU elections in general, the conclusion is that the media narrative of a resurgent far right is significantly overstating the actual situation based on a lot of assumptions that don't really hold water.

It's only about the first 15-20 minutes of the podcast, and I found it vaguely heartening, which is why I bring it up.

Genome · Jun 11, 2024

Well, well, well... The leader of Les Républicains, Eric Ciotti, has now come out and said that he wants an alliance with Rassemblement National.

If they build a powerplant in Haute-Marne, they could hook it up to de Gaulle's grave and use the spinning to power all of France.

ramases · Jun 11, 2024

Genome said:
Well, well, well... The leader of Les Républicains, Eric Ciotti, has now come out and said that he wants an alliance with Rassemblement National.

If they build a powerplant in Haute-Marne, they could hook it up to de Gaulle's grave and use the spinning to power all of France.

The fine tradition of failing conservative parties enabling (proto-)fascists to avoid their own irrelevance continues, it would seem. :/

Dr Nno · Jun 12, 2024

Morning news.

As mentioned yesterday, the President of Les Républicains announced an agreement with Le Pen's RN, confirmed by frontrunner Jordan Bardella. Most Républicains leaders are furious, and ask for their current president's dismissal. The party's statutes don't mention this possibility though, so the party (with its De Gaulle and Chirac legacy of hating the Le Pens) is officially exploding. It's a long belief of mine that Macron always wanted to kill that party, and today he finally succeeded. Trivia: Jean-Marie Le Pen admitted in 2018 that he had planned to violently free the instigator of the attempted murder of President De Gaulle in 1962, marking him a co-conspirator in this attack. His daughter metaphorically finished the job, with some presidential help.
The RN declined the offer for an alliance with Marion Marechal's Reconquête party. The official reason is 'we don't want anything to do with its president (ex right-wing pundit) Éric Zemmour in any way'. The hate is strong with this one.
Right wing pundits are horrified of the Front Populaire alliance of the Left parties. it must be working somehow, but still no details.
Confirmation that the dissolution decision was influenced by a small group of close advisors for Macron, a.k.a yes-men (gift article in French from Le Monde). The most right-wing advisors steered the President to this option, inspired by the glorious history of French politics. Macron is big on the symbols from History, as a way to please all political sides.
Françoise Hardy died last night. No relation with politics, I'm just a bit sad.

LizandreBZH · Jun 12, 2024

Zemmour and his party "Reconquête" are openly more extreme right than Le Pen / Bardella and Rassemblement National. His is the "idiot utile" who allows the RN to masquerade as almost moderate.
Why tarnish her image if she can instead welcome a part of the traditional (and respectable) right ?

Soriak · Jun 12, 2024

I think this explains a lot of Europe's problems: Europeans Are Becoming Poorer. ‘Yes, We’re All Worse Off.’ (WSJ gift article)

In 2008, the EU and US economies were roughly of equal size. Today, the US economy is more than 50% larger. Cases like this strike me as illustrative:

Kristian Kallio, a games developer in northern Finland, recently decided to reduce his working week by one-fifth to 30 hours in exchange for a 10% pay cut. He now makes about €2,500 per month. “Who wouldn’t want to work shorter hours?” Kallio said. About one-third of his colleagues took the same deal, although leaders work full-time, said Kallio’s boss, Jaakko Kylmäoja.

Kallio now works from 10 a.m. to 4.30 p.m. He uses his extra free time for hobbies, to make good food and take long bike rides. “I don’t see a reality where I would go back to normal working hours,” he said.

Very high marginal taxes really disincentivize people from working longer. Working 10-4:30 instead of 9-5 costs this guy about 100 Euros per month. In the US, it'd cost him around 220 Euros per month. There are a lot of people who would take the former deal but not the latter. And ultimately, people working is what creates economic value and makes societies wealthy.

The article also notes the popularity of grocery surplus stores, where expiring food can be bought at heavy discounts, even among middle-class employees. That doesn't strike me as the "good life." I don't think people actually prefer this over spending a few extra hours at work... rather, they are taxed so heavily that they would not see much of a quality of life improvement even if they did spend those extra hours.

breubreubreu · Jun 12, 2024

Oranging the thread.

Pretty much surprised (and amazed) that the left is managing to "herd the cats" for a second time, despite all the ideological differences and egos. Macron was betting on the aggressiveness of the EU elections to sour the relations. Seems like he's winning his bet on breaking the traditional right (LR) into those that will align with him and those that will join Le Pen's ranks.

Dr Nno said:
Confirmation that the dissolution decision was influenced by a small group of close advisors for Macron, a.k.a yes-men

It's insane that even Macron's prime minister wasn't in this group and was taken by surprise.

Dr Nno said:
Right wing pundits are horrified of the Front Populaire alliance of the Left parties. it must be working somehow, but still no details.

According to the Le Monde live thread, they even decided (in principle) how many candidates each party of the Front Populaire will get. They still need to discuss a common program, though.

---

Personally, before last week, I'd have doubts about voting for Macron or Mélenchon during an hypothetical presidential second round between the two in 2027 - I like some of the ideas of the latter, but I don't think he would be a good fit for president or prime minister.

Now? Eff this, Macron has absolutely no moral ground on calling others irresponsible. I'll still vote for a socialist or a green before Mélenchon, but Macron is not in the bottom of the list only because Le Pen and Zemmour have that spot already.

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