Perpetual UK Politics Thread Part Two

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arcite

arcite

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  • #4
    A new sun rises in Post-Brexit little England.

    We can be reasonably assured the new leader isn't in the pocket of Russian oligarchs, snogging underlings on the side to expand the bloodline, or concocting bad allegories involving Dickensonian/Harry Potteresque references to mythical pre-war Britain of Empire.

    On the other hand, a died in the wool Thatcher impersonator is now in charge - complete with Thatcherite economic malaise, high inflation, and rationing.
     
    philmes

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  • #6
    I think calling Truss a "Thatcher impersonator" is, instagram pics aside, a big mistake.

    Ecmaster76 said:
    pauli said:
    For the record, I still think that the title should be UK Politics: the Truss Year(s).

    I'm very curious to see how long she lasts.
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    Is a whole year even likely?
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    I think much depends on the first week. If her energy price plan goes down well with the public, she'll survive to the next election. Otherwise she'll be out after Christmas.
     
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    nimro

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  • #8
    I remember Brown riding out his term and that being one of the contributing factors to his downfall. Both May and Johnson have sought elections to solidify their position. With the polling the way it is (I saw one poll yesterday that via electoral calculus had Labour winning 414 seats), do we think it likely Truss will seek a personal mandate? Perhaps after going for some big (non-manifesto) tax cuts and being frustrated by the Lords?
     
    ramases

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  • #9
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    tigas

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  • #12
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    Thegn

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  • #13
    CPX

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  • #14
    nimro said:
    I remember Brown riding out his term and that being one of the contributing factors to his downfall. Both May and Johnson have sought elections to solidify their position. With the polling the way it is (I saw one poll yesterday that via electoral calculus had Labour winning 414 seats), do we think it likely Truss will seek a personal mandate? Perhaps after going for some big (non-manifesto) tax cuts and being frustrated by the Lords?
    Click to expand...

    I'd say add in what philmes mentioned with the energy pricing reaction. She'd have no reason to seek an election if the public rejects her plan proposal.
     
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    GloatingSwine

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  • #15
    philmes said:
    I think calling Truss a "Thatcher impersonator" is, instagram pics aside, a big mistake.

    Ecmaster76 said:
    pauli said:
    For the record, I still think that the title should be UK Politics: the Truss Year(s).

    I'm very curious to see how long she lasts.
    Click to expand...
    Is a whole year even likely?
    Click to expand...

    I think much depends on the first week. If her energy price plan goes down well with the public, she'll survive to the next election. Otherwise she'll be out after Christmas.
    Click to expand...

    Yeah, impersonators are usually expected to have some level of skill :p

    Truss is taking her cues from and namechecking the same economists as Thatcher (Patrick Minford, whose record of prediction is woeful even by the standards of economists), hence her parroting the whole "cut taxes to stimulate the economy" schtick.

    The fact that the 2020s are not the 1970s and the state and reasons for the state of the British economy are quite different may not have percolated yet.

    From the sounds of it the energy price plan will be just enough to lurch to the next catastrophe, but the next GE will definitely be against the background of recession in Tory hands.
     
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    arcite

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  • #16
    Weird new jenga-like lectern.

    What does it mean?

    Screen-Shot-2022-09-06-at-5-32-34-PM.png


    Also, it started raining. The gods are sending a sign.
     
    philmes

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  • #17
    GloatingSwine said:
    Yeah, impersonators are usually expected to have some level of skill :p

    Truss is taking her cues from and namechecking the same economists as Thatcher (Patrick Minford, whose record of prediction is woeful even by the standards of economists), hence her parroting the whole "cut taxes to stimulate the economy" schtick.

    The fact that the 2020s are not the 1970s and the state and reasons for the state of the British economy are quite different may not have percolated yet.
    Click to expand...

    IMO this is a simplistic take. People who know Truss seem to think she has a clear guiding ideology, and knows what she wants to accomplish. Compare and contrast to her predecessor who self evidently didn't.

    She might not be right - disastrously so, in fact! - but I think accusing her of being in effect a transparent cosplayer is a dangerous underestimation.

    From the sounds of it the energy price plan will be just enough to lurch to the next catastrophe, but the next GE will definitely be against the background of recession in Tory hands.
    Click to expand...

    The energy plan is as I predicted back in the old thread. And it's, realistically speaking, the only politically tenable one given the constraints imposed by the UK state.
     
    Skoop

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  • #19
    She might not be right - disastrously so, in fact! - but I think accusing her of being in effect a transparent cosplayer is a dangerous underestimation.
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    She's changed her mind on Brexit, changed her party affiliation. Not much about her suggests anything about original thinking. If she's channeling Thatcher, it may be because she hopes it will appeal to those wielding the power, and because she doesn't have any idea of what to do on her own.

    Or not. Not underestimating her yet; it's worth a brief wait to see what she's got. But Magic 8 Ball says, "All signs point to no".
     
    philmes

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  • #20
    Skoop said:
    She's changed her mind on Brexit
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    I'd restate that as "accepted the result of the referendum". Not a gotcha.

    changed her party affiliation
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    She was a Lib Dem activist and joined the Tories in 1996. Don't think that's a gotcha either.

    Not much about her suggests anything about original thinking.
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    IMO this is better line of attack. Having said that, she was one of the authors of Britannia Unchained, which suggests there's a consistent ideology there.

    Hence why I think underestimating her is dangerous: Johnson had no ideology and did fuck all with a majority of 80. Truss does have an ideology. One I suspect most posters in this thread wouldn't exactly be enamoured with. Can she materialise that and get things through parliament? Dunno, but that's the risk.
     
    Skoop

    Skoop

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  • #21
    Truss does have an ideology.
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    And it shows. Apart from some general noise about helping the helpless, without committing to much, from her campaign it appears that she's focused on preserving the wealth of the party elite and their cohorts, insulating it from any drawdown. She's warned against "redistribution" repeatedly in her set speech. Seems as though that's the monster under the bed for her.
     
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    philmes

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  • #22
    Skoop said:
    it appears that she's focused on preserving the wealth of the party elite and their cohorts, insulating it from any drawdown
    Click to expand...

    I think that's the wrong lens to view things through. Ideologically, Truss appears to be a small-state conservative, with libertarian leanings. That has implications far beyond "preserving the wealth of the party elite". Think a Reagan vs a Trump.

    She's warned against "redistribution" repeatedly in her set speech.
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    Really? Which set speech was that? She did talk about redistribution in an interview with Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday. Is that what you're thinking of?
     
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    Gary Patterson

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  • #23
    There are a disappointing number of people commenting in various fora that the top four jobs are held by people from ethnic minorities, and therefore Truss is prioritising diversity above competence. The media are fanning the flames with articles playing up the "no white men" angle. This puts me in the horrible position of defending Truss on the basis that the best person for a job isn't always a middle-aged white man. Maybe these people are literally the best the conservatives can offer.
     
    pauli

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  • #24
    Gary Patterson said:
    There are a disappointing number of people commenting in various fora that the top four jobs are held by people from ethnic minorities, and therefore Truss is prioritising diversity above competence. The media are fanning the flames with articles playing up the "no white men" angle. This puts me in the horrible position of defending Truss on the basis that the best person for a job isn't always a middle-aged white man. Maybe these people are literally the best the conservatives can offer.
    Click to expand...
    People complain about that out loud? That's just... ugly.
     
    Dr Nno

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  • #25
    Gary Patterson said:
    There are a disappointing number of people commenting in various fora that the top four jobs are held by people from ethnic minorities, and therefore Truss is prioritising diversity above competence. The media are fanning the flames with articles playing up the "no white men" angle. This puts me in the horrible position of defending Truss on the basis that the best person for a job isn't always a middle-aged white man. Maybe these people are literally the best the conservatives can offer.
    Click to expand...

    And if, as I read in French newspapers, those are the 'faithful', then it shows that she has a more diverse view of society than most Tory leaders.
     
    BenN

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  • #26
    OTOH, Jacob Rees-Mogg has inexplicably not been binned. He is apparently now the UK's secretary of state for business and energy, while being a leading climate-change denier.

    The Grauniad has a delightfully dry sub-heading to their news analysis article:
    Green businesses and investors say prospect of green energy sceptic as cabinet minister in charge does not inspire confidence
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    :D

    Rees-Mogg being put in charge of emptying No.10's bins would not exactly inspire confidence either.
     
    Ananke

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  • #28
    As funny as it is, it is an actual, genuine improvement over continually blaming Labour for everything. Who, as you say, have been out of power for 12 years, and their share of the blame for, well, everything has to have somewhat diminished in that time.

    As little as I either like or trust what I've seen of her, it's still possible to acknowledge that Truss could be getting a non-zero number of things right.
     
    philmes

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  • #29
    BenN said:
    OTOH, Jacob Rees-Mogg has inexplicably not been binned. He is apparently now the UK's secretary of state for business and energy, while being a leading climate-change denier.
    Click to expand...

    Every administration needs a truly inexplicable appointment. Cameron and May had Grayling. Johnson had Gavin Williamson. Rees-Mogg, now's your chance! :devious:
     
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    GloatingSwine

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  • #31
    arcite said:
    Kwasi Kwarteng got a 1st in Classics & History at Cambridge, won University Challenge twice, attended Harvard University on a Kennedy Scholarship, went back to Cambridge for a PhD in economic history - then wrote books on the British Empire.

    ———-

    He’s a clever fellow.
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    Although it is important to remember that clever people can believe really dumb things.
     
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    Case

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  • #38
    Oelph said:
    UK politics is funny. She talked of reform and change. Making things better. Yet her party has been in power for 12 years. She’s at once criticising their own past whilst promising big change.
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    I've seen plenty of that in the US too. Always reminds me of this bit from O Brother:

    JUNIOR: Well he’s the reform candidate, Daddy.
    PAPPY: …Yeah?
    JUNIOR: Well people like that reform. Maybe we should get us some.
    PAPPY: I’ll reform you, you soft-headed Sonofabitch! How we gonna run reform when we’re the damn incumbent!
    Click to expand...
     
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    wco81

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  • #40
    arcite said:
    Kwasi Kwarteng got a 1st in Classics & History at Cambridge, won University Challenge twice, attended Harvard University on a Kennedy Scholarship, went back to Cambridge for a PhD in economic history - then wrote books on the British Empire.

    ———-

    He’s a clever fellow.
    Click to expand...


    Here's a profile.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-firs ... -kwarteng/


    How common are black MPs in the Conservative Party? More or less common than black Republicans?

    Guy seems brilliant, had a privileged upbringing, from Eton on.


    But he has training in history and languages and is Chancellor of the Exchequer? Do Chancellors tend to have economic backgrounds? Or they just need to be in charge of trained economists?
     
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