Apple Should Buy Rivian To Save CarPlay

Vincent Hanna

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In the aftermath of Apple's failed Titan project to make their own car, the even bigger problem for Apple is that auto industry is now actively shunning CarPlay, especially the next-gen, full dash CarPlay that now appears to be DOA. GM lead the way on this:

Apple no longer merely wanted to project a copy of iOS onto the infotainment screen; it wanted the iPhone to oversee the mission-critical cluster behind the steering wheel. This stuff was sacrosanct in Detroit. GM’s Wexler says the next-gen CarPlay, which GM learned of before the announcement, was a “major factor” in its ensuing decision to divorce Apple.

The automakers are eager to turn all new cars into rolling spyware hosts that steal and monetize everything you do and everywhere you go in the car. Next-gen CarPlay still exists, but the original list of over a dozen supporting brands is now over a year late and reduced to just Porsche and Aston Martin, who make enough off the initial sale of their high-end vehicles to (not yet) need to monetize the dash with their own crappy software.

The way I see it is that CarPlay is an OS that has no hardware to run on. Apple assumed the auto manufacturers would behave like hardware OEMs eager to license an out-of-house OS, but then exactly the opposite happened. What seemed impossible a year ago I now think is inevitable: CarPlay will be purposefully locked out of all new cars precisely because it offers some level of privacy to the driver. This in turn reduces the value proposition of the iPhone itself, something Apple simply cannot allow.

So with Titan dead, and CarPlay looking like BeOS, what is Apple to do? They should strategically partner or outright buy an EV maker and make next-gen CarPlay its main selling point centered around driver privacy and non-montization of your driving data. Apple could have done this with Tesla five years ago, but instead plowed billions into the failed Titan. So the best (only?) option today is Rivian. Great cars; made in the US; they just announced their midrange SUV (R2) and affordable city car (R3) that look very compelling; they need Capex to take those new models to the mass market; and Apple turns an appealing brand that currently does not support CarPlay at all into a prestige home for its software.

Apple already did this exact move in a market they were weak in with the Beats acquisition: a separate brand wholly owned by Apple whose products then gained deep integration with Apple's operating systems.

Luckily there is a rumor of exactly this happening, though it's pretty thinly sourced. Anyway, I would love to see such an announcement at WWDC. Apple can't get locked out of every car made as the entire industry transitions to EVs. They need to do something big.
 

stevenkan

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Dear lord no, Rivian ranks at the bottom of satisfaction and reliability (only Polestar and Lucid rank worst). I guess it only makes sense once you consider that CarPlay connectivity also ranks near the top of consumer complaints for US autos,.
Do you mean lack of CarPlay connectivity? Or poor CarPlay connectivity? Or are people actively complaining about the presence of CarPlay connectivity?
 
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Vincent Hanna

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That said, I can't see Apple interested in a company that sells products for a massive loss, has growing inventory issues, and runs the entire platform on android automotive.
Changing the platform from Android Automotive to CarPlay would be the whole point.

My premise is that Apple is at risk of getting permanently shut out of the dashboard on every car in the world. Auto makers used to view CarPlay as a godsend that they couldn't wait to tell buyers about, but now it's a block to their data mining monetization plans.

Apple was an OS vendor and the automakers were hardware OEMs. Apple would get great marketshare for CarPlay based on the massive iPhone install base wanting that feature, and then Project Titan was supposed to be the cherry on top.

But now not only are Apple's car plans in ruins, CarPlay as a platform is on the chopping block too. Apple can't cede the entire auto market after having spent $10B on Titan.
 

Genome

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Apple should buy Rivian
No, they shouldn't.
The automakers are eager to turn all new cars into rolling spyware hosts that steal and monetize everything you do and everywhere you go in the car.
This isn't going to change just because Apple makes their own car. Which they won't. It would be supremely silly for them to make cars, especially considering how the rising Chinese brands are basically crushing the traditional carmakers right now and that won't stop. Which is probably exactly why Apple finally scrapped Project Titan.
What seemed impossible a year ago I now think is inevitable: CarPlay will be purposefully locked out of all new cars precisely because it offers some level of privacy to the driver. This in turn reduces the value proposition of the iPhone itself, something Apple simply cannot allow.
The iPhone had been around for 7 years before CarPlay became a thing, ten years ago. Being available in cars is not a major driver of iPhone sales. If the iPhone starts hurting, it's because in 2024 the iPhone SE is a great, big, steaming piece of sh*t and Apple are no longer competitive in that price range.

CarPlay is great, but you would probably be surprised at how many people just ignore it and use whatever is already in their cars. That's mainly why auto manufacturers are choosing to remove Android Auto and CarPlay - they have the data showing them how many owners turn it on and they know that for them it's mostly not worth it. They'll still sell their cars. The average driver doesn't care about privacy and yes, yes, they should. Agreed. But they don't.

And the Apple Car would be a weird luxury item, something for the people who buy the Mac Pro when the Mac Mini would suffice for them. However, the only way to make money in cars is to have cheaper models complementing your luxury models and having some transport models and delivery vehicles as well. This is why Rivian is floundering and are hoping that the R3 is a success, because they only have the expensive consumer cars at the moment.

Apple isn't going to turn itself into a car company, which is the only way an Apple Car could survive.

Personally, I like CarPlay and would prefer using it over the systems that the car manufacturers provide, because they don't get UX. (Some Android Automotive excluded, because that is pretty nice.)
Apple already did this exact move in a market they were weak in with the Beats acquisition: a separate brand wholly owned by Apple whose products then gained deep integration with Apple's operating systems.
They did this because phones, tablets and computers output sound and headphones are a market where people buy new gear regularly. They break them, they lose them, they want the new shiny. Again, Apple must have had plenty of data on this, because they knew how many non-Apple headphones were sold in their stores. People don't buy a new car every other year and the car would only push the iPhone sales, not the entire ecosystem, which is more important. Beats headphones can be still used on PCs, which is what the majority of iPhone users own.
Apple can't cede the entire auto market after having spent $10B on Titan.
Yes, they can.
 

Entegy

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I'm gonna be honest, I really don't give a shit what software the dash is running. I'm never going to subscribe to any kind of car subscription. All I want is a port to plug my phone in (yes, wired) and have CarPlay on the centre console. Anything more is a bonus, anything less is not being considered at all.
 
Honest question: how many of you would even want to drive a Apple branded car?

I‘m all in on the eco-system, have been for decades, but for a couple of reasons I struggle with that idea. One if them is I generally despise status symbols, and despite others’ perceptions, I’m in the Apple ecosystem because it‘s functional and rational (to me at least).

Now as a car choice is a much more extroverted statement of personality, yeah I don‘t see myself in a Apple Car ever.
 
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wrylachlan

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I wonder if the shut down of project Titan will actually bring some of the carmakers back into the fold. When Apple was all in on building their own self-driving capability AND at the same time offering a new version of CarPlay that takes over more and more of the dash it would be hard for the paranoid mind not to think of the latter as a Trojan horse for the former. Music and maps subscriptions will probably be a minor business for car makers, but self-driving subscriptions are looked at as the golden goose.

Now that Apple isn’t a threat on that front it will be interesting to see if anything changes.
 

Scud

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Do you mean lack of CarPlay connectivity? Or poor CarPlay connectivity? Or are people actively complaining about the presence of CarPlay connectivity?
No idea. It's just a line item mentioned by JD Power on their Satisfaction Survey.

My premise is that Apple is at risk of getting permanently shut out of the dashboard on every car in the world. Auto makers used to view CarPlay as a godsend that they couldn't wait to tell buyers about, but now it's a block to their data mining monetization plans.

Apple was an OS vendor and the automakers were hardware OEMs. Apple would get great marketshare for CarPlay based on the massive iPhone install base wanting that feature, and then Project Titan was supposed to be the cherry on top.

But now not only are Apple's car plans in ruins, CarPlay as a platform is on the chopping block too. Apple can't cede the entire auto market after having spent $10B on Titan.
I hear what you are saying but, as you wrote, Apple tried this and deemed it not worthy. I doubt sinking even more billions into a dying company like Rivian would sway that opinion. As for the success of CarPlay 2.0, let's see how well it is received once it's released before we declare it in need of saving.
 
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cateye

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I‘m all in on the eco-system, have been for decades, but for a couple of reasons I struggle with that idea. One if them is I generally despise status symbols, and despite others’ perceptions, I’m in the Apple ecosystem because it‘s functional and rational (to me at least).

Agree with this. I don't have anything particular against Rivian (I kind of like their design language, particularly the pickup trucks) and Vincent's argument isn't the nuttiest "Apple should..." idea I've heard recently, but... I've bought Toyotas and Hondas for most of my adult life because because I like my cars to be extremely functional, well engineered, and, to be honest, a little generic. I'm patiently waiting to make the transition to EV for one of our vehicles until Toyota, Honda, or some similar old-school company gets its EV engineering act together, at least to the level Tesla is achieving, because I'm completely disinterested in driving a "LOOK AT ME" car that is so brand-forward. And Apple is, even at its most demure, all about its brand.

That aside: Are we even convinced that CarPlay is that important to Apple to do something so bold and dramatic? It's more AppleTV than iPad, really. I suppose the comparison to Beats is apt on the surface, a sub-brand that hums along without a lot of oversight, but that may be why Project Titan failed in the first place: It reached a tipping point where it was going to require more center-of-desk focus than Apple was willing to give it for too small of a return.
 
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ant1pathy

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I have the impression that Titan was always about having a foot in the door when the (Right Around The Corner) full self driving came out. I think there is a lot less interest in just-another-EV from Apple.

For CarPlay, I couldn't really care less about the whole dashboard takeover parts, but am very keen on the center screen takeover for navigation and media playback. I won't buy another car without it, which eliminates GM entirely (and I've been reading anecdotes of their new policy really starting to bite at the dealership level) but Ford has (so far) enthusiastically trumpeted "we know you like CarPlay and we're keeping it, don't worry" as a differentiator. I've not read or seen anything about Honda / Toyota looking to drop the center screen CarPlay so there should be at least some sane options on the market.
 

cateye

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Toyota kind of dragged their feet with CarPlay for a while, but they're reasonably on-board now. Honda has even been (very slowly) offering software upgrades to add support for wireless CarPlay in models that only supported plug-in CarPlay from the factory. So yeah, most manufacturers who are not GM seem to understand that supporting CarPlay/AndroidAuto is, if nothing else, an easy win for goodwill.

I couldn't really care less about the whole dashboard takeover parts

Right? I feel like while auto makers are generally terrible at entertainment systems, critical dashboard design is much more in their wheelhouse and I don't really understand what I gain by letting Apple take the whole stack over. As screen/digital centric as my 2022 Passport is, I kind of like that it still has some analog gauges.
 

Lee L

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CarPlay is great, but you would probably be surprised at how many people just ignore it and use whatever is already in their cars. That's mainly why auto manufacturers are choosing to remove Android Auto and CarPlay - they have the data showing them how many owners turn it on and they know that for them it's mostly not worth it. They'll still sell their cars. The average driver doesn't care about privacy and yes, yes, they should. Agreed. But they don't.


Personally, I like CarPlay and would prefer using it over the systems that the car manufacturers provide, because they don't get UX. (Some Android Automotive excluded, because that is pretty nice.)
So, you’re saying companies like GM dropping CarPlay is solely due to people not using it, and nothing at all about trying to monetize subscriptions to the entire system and then various apps. The GM that was selling data to Lexis Nexis somewhat under the table and stopped when they got caught? The GM, that one of their execs said in a call a few months ago that they see people paying $X per month for Spotify and think they deserve some of that money for allowing it in their car? LOLWUT?
 

Arty50

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I disagree with the premise of the OP. I've read several articles from auto mags that all essentially say GM is taking a big risk here. Consumers love CarPlay and Android Auto because they make the experience so much better than the manufacturer's systems. People are actively shunning GM's cars because of this.

Also, keep in mind that traditional CarPlay and the expanded CarPlay that takes over the dashboard are very different things. Traditional CarPlay still has a ton of support across most car manufacturers and that isn't changing anytime soon. Expanded CarPlay hasn't really taken off nor do I think it will. It'll always be more of a niche.
 

Genome

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So, you’re saying companies like GM dropping CarPlay is solely due to people not using it
I’ll be honest, I missed the part where English changed and the words “mainly” and “mostly” became synonyms with “solely”. I didn’t get that memo.

No, they’re mainly doing it because there are no repercussions to removing it. Adding CarPlay is mostly not worth it, because they lose control and gain very little.

I don’t think that the “I will not buy this car because it has no CarPlay”-subset of potential customers is big enough to justify not being able to milk the other, much larger group of potential customers that won’t care about the infotainment system and what’s driving it.
 

ant1pathy

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I’ll be honest, I missed the part where English changed and the words “mainly” and “mostly” became synonyms with “solely”. I didn’t get that memo.

No, they’re mainly doing it because there are no repercussions to removing it. Adding CarPlay is mostly not worth it, because they lose control and gain very little.

I don’t think that the “I will not buy this car because it has no CarPlay”-subset of potential customers is big enough to justify not being able to milk the other, much larger group of potential customers that won’t care about the infotainment system and what’s driving it.
All caveats of "anecdotes are not data" aside, I've seen in a few places that the dealerships are feeling the heat from new car buyers who u-turn when they hear "none of our new cars have CarPlay". Frequently cited as a near #1, if not actually #1, feature when car shopping. You might be right that the margins from the subscription services are high enough to lose out on the new car buyers, but dang, I would be shocked if the math worked out that way.
 
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iPilot05

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First I don't think Rivian is really for sale to Apple considering their ties with Amazon. Secondly, I can't think of a business model that's less in line with Apple's than automobiles.

CarPlay is a novelty that really excelled when manufacturers couldn't figure out how to build a touch interface radio and had DVD-based navigation. They've since caught up and frankly just don't need CarPlay anymore, so why pay the licensing fees?

Apple could compete with Android Auto but it would require building a real-time OS to handle the safety critical parts while also building out a CarPlay interface on commodity hardware that needs to be relevant for a decade or more. Remember, a real Apple Car will need to work without an iPhone attached.

The whole thing is low-margin, high cost and high regulation. I think Apple is quite content with CarPlay being an optional, simple projection of an iPhone onto built in displays. The moment you go beyond that it just gets real cumbersome. I think Apple will gladly say that Android/Google can go have fun.
 

ant1pathy

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CarPlay is a novelty that really excelled when manufacturers couldn't figure out how to build a touch interface radio and had DVD-based navigation. They've since caught up and frankly just don't need CarPlay anymore, so why pay the licensing fees?
Emphasis mine, and no they have not. The car OEM UI/UX is universally terrible. I was in a late model Volvo rental the other week and any time I had to bounce back to the Volvo UI it was an exercise in pain and frustration. "Project my phone onto the center screen for nav and media" is pretty much table stakes nowadays and trying to swim against that current will (should, I suppose...) be punished by the market.
Apple could compete with Android Auto but it would require building a real-time OS to handle the safety critical parts while also building out a CarPlay interface on commodity hardware that needs to be relevant for a decade or more. Remember, a real Apple Car will need to work without an iPhone attached.
I believe Apple has exactly that product, as part of the dashboard takeover stack? Pretty sure the RTOS portions were one of the software pieces that were left behind when Titan got shuttered.
 

iPilot05

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I believe Apple has exactly that product, as part of the dashboard takeover stack? Pretty sure the RTOS portions were one of the software pieces that were left behind when Titan got shuttered.
CarPlay 1 and 2 relies heavily on the phone doing the heavy lifting. If they wanted to get as deep as Android has gotten they'd need to put the whole stack inside the car using hardware that even when brand new is years older than what is in even the cheapest iPhone. It'll be expected to play nice with Android phones or no phone at all and keep running for the life of the vehicle.

What was left behind from Titan is an exercise in predicting how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. We don't know beans about that whole thing. We don't even know if it really existed or what its real intent even was! Maybe it was self-driving, maybe it was better understanding the auto market, maybe Tim Cook just hates how aftermarket stereos all look like trash pulled from the UFO crash at Roswell?

I think at best Apple's chance is to deeply partner with manufacturers to a) integrate Apple Music and other services like Siri with native entertainment systems and b) make Car Play a selling point and not a hassle to develop for. They're up against a competitor that's willing to give away the goods for free in return for marketing data. We will see how important Car Play is to buyers but I'm betting the car manufacturers know it's relatively low on people's list, at least when they're drooling at the new fancy at the dealer lots.
 

Gandhim3

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I like the Rivian models currently on sale and the future models they have previewed. Of all the new BEV makers I think they have the best chance of making It and surviving. And frankly what they showed in the update R1 line unveiled last week is light years ahead of any legacy ICE automaker. I was actually thinking of buying an R1S in a couple of years. I hope they make it.

I think Apple may have considered buying a BEV makers a few years ago, but the market mood has shifted away and onto AI, and that’s where they will focus. Much less capital intensive compared to making cars and that AI servers capital can be repurposed if things don’t pan out, unlike manufactured unsold Teslas clogging up parking lots right now.

as for CarPlay - almost all the legacy automakers outside of GM have signed on to gen 1 CarPlay. Hell you can get it in McLaren and Ferrari cars. Aston, Polestar and a Porsche have already signed on to CarPlay 2, with the Porsche Macan first one coming to market for sale late summer. CarPlay is not going away anytime soon.
 

Lee L

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I’ll be honest, I missed the part where English changed and the words “mainly” and “mostly” became synonyms with “solely”. I didn’t get that memo.

No, they’re mainly doing it because there are no repercussions to removing it. Adding CarPlay is mostly not worth it, because they lose control and gain very little.

I don’t think that the “I will not buy this car because it has no CarPlay”-subset of potential customers is big enough to justify not being able to milk the other, much larger group of potential customers that won’t care about the infotainment system and what’s driving it.
Since you didn’t even mention the data mining and gated subscription aspect of it, and all you talked about was the mythical idea that some tiny number of people are using CarPlay, forgive me if I misunderstood.
 

mephistoqc

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This is just from the nav side, but most everything else is a solved problem for OEMs. GM tried for a few model years to not include navigation, mostly on the early Bolts EVs. You could only use CarPlay or Android Auto for those vehicles. We had one as a lease, and it was fine, but not perfect. It was especially poor with Apple Maps not being able to route you according to what charge the vehicle had, but the OnStar app could.

As others in the thread have said, I think Tesla is setting the example here and showing that losing CarPlay and Android Auto support won't cause sales to dry up completely. GM is already invested in map data and navigation systems from the rest of their lineup, plus they already have training programs for dealerships, so it does make some amount of sense for them to focus on those investments.

Also, driving thru an area with poor or no cell service, sometimes without warning or unplanned, isn't fun when your map data runs out. Or a software update breaking CarPlay with your vehicle for some reason and then having no navigation at all. Not something you have to worry about with some of the built-in systems.

I give it 4-5 years and GM will revert this, unless some more OEMs follow their lead.
 

stevenkan

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From this September 2023 McKinsey article:

When asked about system preferences, our survey revealed that:
  • almost half of car buyers would not purchase a vehicle that lacked Apple CarPlay or Android Auto
  • 45 percent of car owners who have Apple CarPlay or Android Auto use the service regularly; another 40 percent connect periodically
  • 85 percent of car owners who have Apple CarPlay (or a similar service) prefer it over the OEM’s built-in system
Count me among the "almost half" of the first bullet. I was strongly considering a Model Y, but am now strongerly considering the Ioniq 5, and CarPlay support is part of that.

My nephew just bought his first car, and I wrote him a modest check to subsidize his purchase so that he could afford one with CarPlay support.
 
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Entegy

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Also, driving thru an area with poor or no cell service, sometimes without warning or unplanned, isn't fun when your map data runs out.
There has been offline mapping solutions across various platforms for literal decades at this point. Google, and finally Apple, were just the last to get with the program. I don't do rural but I do encounter dead zones and i just sometimes notice Apple Maps switching to the offline data set. Well worth the 500MB for all the cities I regularly drive.
 

Vincent Hanna

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Apple has new WWDC sessions on next-gen CarPlay with lots of juicy graphics. So they are still committed, even though Porsche and Aston Martin are the only two partners at this time.

Say hello to the next generation of CarPlay design system

Meet the next generation of CarPlay architecture

And an overview article from MacRumors

EDIT: Apple is leaning heavily into the customization and co-branding that CarPlay 2.0 allows automakers. "The result won't just look like Apple, or just look like a copy of the built-in system. It's designed to be a unique celebration of both brands."

So they are still actively courting automakers to allow the full takeover of all screens and gauges.
 
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dal20402

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The Western automakers are in the same boat Apple is in: a static and saturated market for their hardware. They have invested relatively little in production capacity or efforts to expand the market, preferring to chase margins with what capacity they do have by building ever-larger and more expensive trucks and SUVs, and leaving everyone else to buy used. Just like Apple, they are grasping at the "services" life preserver as their only hope for growth. They are mostly trying to sell those services through the dashboard, and of course the unimaginative MBA types don't understand why they have had such a hard time doing so (for the record, a combination of unintelligible user interface and uncompelling services). Not a single big one is going to give that up, which is why whole-dashboard CarPlay was doomed for the mass market the second it was announced.

The exceptions prove the rule. Porsche has turned itself into a Veblen good through a churn of endless nostalgia-inducing special editions and obscure "I've got 1 of 1!" options, and is so profitable and makes such un-car industry margins that it frankly doesn't need to chase in-dash services revenue. Aston Martin is desperate for survival and doesn't have the resources to design its own interface.
 

Vincent Hanna

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Yet these new WWDC videos prove Apple is aggressively pursuing design partnerships with these same automakers. But if no one takes them up on it, then what? They try to hold onto just the entertainment/nav screen for a few more years until they get shut out altogether? It doesn't matter how many would be buyers want (plain vanilla) CarPlay, if the industry unites to lock Apple out, then what are they going to do, never buy a new car again?

Apple has to do something to stop that from happening, and now we are back to my thread's premise.
 

japtor

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Yet these new WWDC videos prove Apple is aggressively pursuing design partnerships with these same automakers. But if no one takes them up on it, then what? They try to hold onto just the entertainment/nav screen for a few more years until they get shut out altogether? It doesn't matter how many would be buyers want (plain vanilla) CarPlay, if the industry unites to lock Apple out, then what are they going to do, never buy a new car again?

Apple has to do something to stop that from happening, and now we are back to my thread's premise.
So the solution is to buy Rivian and become a direct competitor to all the other manufacturers? Make it a CarPlay showcase so others want to keep supporting it and keep giving it away to said competitors, or keep it to themselves as a differentiating feature of their own cars? Or is this just purely to keep CarPlay development going, even if it's just for themselves in a massive new acquisition/money sink?
Apple has new WWDC sessions on next-gen CarPlay with lots of juicy graphics. So they are still committed, even though Porsche and Aston Martin are the only two partners at this time.

Say hello to the next generation of CarPlay design system

Meet the next generation of CarPlay architecture

And an overview article from MacRumors

EDIT: Apple is leaning heavily into the customization and co-branding that CarPlay 2.0 allows automakers. "The result won't just look like Apple, or just look like a copy of the built-in system. It's designed to be a unique celebration of both brands."

So they are still actively courting automakers to allow the full takeover of all screens and gauges.
Thanks, I was wondering how it all worked. Haven't watched through yet but am at the part showing the gist of how the display works. So from what I'm seeing so far, the tl;dr version seems to be that it's a mixture of usual* iPhone CarPlay A/V streaming for non critical stuff, and local (car) rendering for the realtime bits and compositing it all together. The custom elements are asset packages delivered by the phone on sync and is what makes up what's rendered locally on the car.

*not usual CarPlay detail (that will rub some folks the wrong way I'm sure): apparently wireless only, which raised my eyebrows till they explained how the rendering of realtime/critical stuff works.
 
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