Battlefront Predictions 2022 Results thread

Horatio

Ars Legatus Legionis
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Moderator
Last year's thread:
2022 Predictions - for old time sake

How did you do?

My results:
AR/VR
Nope!
Apple will announce a headset, but it won't release in 2022 - it'll be MR, so it won't yet have a socially acceptable form factor. Most computing will be done in the phone, and it'll use hand detection and the Watch for gesture controls.
Yes and no Meta will release its Project Cambria headset, an expensive Quest, that offers the same MR stuff as the Apple headset. It will also release a Quest 2 successor at the same Quest 2 price point.
Yes There will be lots of stuff that claim to be part of the metaverse without any actual metaverse, so it'll be another land rush scam, like 2022's NFTs.

CPUs
I don't think so, and yes
Someone will announce something that is competitive on most fronts as the M1 at least on paper, however, no physical CPU will be released, and Apple will release the M2.
Super nope The NVidia acquisition will complete, over the UK government's objections.

Gaming
Yes, but just barely
The supply shortage will run well into the second half, and possibly impact the holiday season again
Yup This will mean yet another year of cross-generation titles, with a few current-gen only standouts
Yup Sony's Game Pass will not provide a compelling value prop
Yup Game Pass will continue to suck a ton of oxygen out of the room, since outside of a few blockbuster titles, there's always something good enough to play in GP
Nope Feral Interactive will be acquired, and transition away from porting work.

Microsoft
Ha, nope
MSFT market cap will finish the year higher than AAPL's market cap
In flight MS will acquire at least 5 gaming studios
Nope One of them will be Valve (longshot)
Nope Another will be Sega
Yup Azure growth will continue, but slow down further
Nope, just refreshes There will be at least 1 new Surface device
Nope There will be at least 1 new device in the Xbox umbrella, but not a console
Yup! The whole Microsoft Adaptive line There will be another a11y product released, somewhere in scope bigger than the sticker pack, but smaller than the controller
 

wrylachlan

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12,769
Subscriptor
AR
Nah 2022 should be a bumper year for AR/VR with strong attention from many players:
  • Nope Apple will release a high end pass through AR/VR device.
  • Yep Facebook will release an update VR device but no major AR device.
  • Yep While there’s lots of press coverage I don’t see anyone getting big sales in 2022 - we’re firmly in slow burn territory

The ARM onslaught
Ish While it’s been ongoing for a while it feels to me like 2022 will be a turning point.
  • Maybe???- hard to tell what’s ARM and what’s Apple managing the shortages better than others. First sign of noteworthy marketshare gains for ARM Macs.
  • Nope, AMD hurting Intel but x86 as a whole doing just fine - ARM substantially hurting x86 in the server space will be a major story in 2022.
  • Nope - Qualcomm will release a pretty good ARM PC chip.
  • LoL No - MS will push hard on ARM Windows.

Health Tech
All sorts of no
- Next year is going to be a leap.
  • Nope - First Apple Watch with an early version of a glucose monitor
  • Nope - First AirPods and AirPod-like devices with health monitors - temp, pulse, etc.
  • Nope, nope, nope - First wearable device approved to diagnose ongoing heart attack and automate alerting first responders.
———
I’m clearly way too bullish on wearables and just way out in left field on most of it. Tough year in predictions.
 
VR/AR -NOPE Not Cynical enough!
Apple will release a VR product to much excitement. It will carry the apple premium pricing it up with HTC and Valve. It will boast the best specs. It will pick up the Apple faithful and anyone unwilling to shop with Meta, and will overtake valve and HTC.
However, there will be no killer content for it. It will just be beat saber and the other cross platform titles. After a blip on initial release, the overall pace of VR adoption will continue as is.
Oculus quest will continue to dominate with it's aggressive pricing and ability to be stand alone and handle PC VR titles. Sony will pull in PS5 folks. Everyone else will be also rans.
Meta will release the Metaverse for the oculus. It will be an utter dud.
AR broadly has many product announcements, but nothing compelling is released or moves the needle.

ARM - YES My cynicism wins! Not sure my reasoning is correct on the server side, but the outcome is.
ARM servers will make inroads into certain market segments, but the strength of AMD and Intel's latest silicon and compatibility issues will keep it from making significant inroads outside of cloud datacenters.
Apple will complete it's ARM transition. The marketshare needle for macOS will remain broadly consistent with it's baseline.


other - No? I don't think they got any significant business though lots of announcements of fabs for them and others.
Aided by the global chip shortage, Intel's foundry efforts will get at least one major customer who will switch to them.