Battlefront Predictions 2023

• Apple glasses arrive
• FB investors rebel at the metaverse financial black hole and force Zuck to pull back
• MS disinvests in HoloLens
• Google tries something in the AR space

• First instances of ChatGPT-like models weaponized for automating disinformation at scale (Russia)
• Apple moves a substantially increased amount of Siri to on-device

• Pixel Watch cancelled
• Apple Watch moves on from 7nm and gets a MUCH more energy efficient chip and substantially longer battery life
• No new sensors in the Apple Watch - new chip is the tent pole.

• A17/M3 at 3nm is a generational improvement - CPU, GPU and NPU get substantially new architectures.
• Qualcomm releases their first chip from the Nuvia acqui-hire.
• Windows on ARM still lukewarm

• AMD continues to drink Intel’s milkshake and put them in a world of hurt.
• Twitter dies and Mastodon takes off
• Tik Tok is banned in the US over national security concerns

• John Carmack’s resignation is the tip of the iceberg. Meta has accomplished relatively little progress per $ spent on MicroLED and headset progress in general. Next product is a refresh of an existing product with a new SoC, no VR/AR improvements.
  • Meta fails to make a profit in 2023, execs push EBITDA numbers to distract from metaverse dysfunction.
  • EBITDA numbers still disappointing due to Apple’s privacy changes and EU regulation.
• Apple Glasses do get released and sales numbers are underwhelming. Features that don’t require the device to be on your face make it into iPhone Pro models with LIDAR coupled with rear camera

• ChatGPT ends up not being all that disruptive because results are no better than conventional search (and often less accurate because of the opacity of the aggregation process).
  • Someone still overpays for a fancy limerick generator.
• Apple extends on-device Siri, releases offline Siri mode.

• Underwhelming Apple Watch update, no new display tech.
• Google rewrites/re-releases their watch OS

• AMD steals back marketshare from NVidia, exerts downward price pressure that NVidia isn’t able to match due to die size relative to product tier.
• DLSS 3.0 is a flop
• DLSS 2.0 keeps being a selling point as it remains the only viable way to play games with ray tracing enabled

• Uber in serious financial trouble by the end of 2023. Company runs out of global subsidiaries to sell.
• TSLA stock drops below $75 due to success of Electrify America and lawsuits over FSD.
• Concerns over recession overblown. Consumer electronics sales flat (but not down).

• Apple AR glasses remain vaporware a subject of speculation
• iPhones, iPads, Watches, Macs all get iterative updates that don't really excite anyone

• Nvidia doesn't cut high-end GPU prices
• AMD fails capitalize on it to grow their marketshare
• Battlemage slips to mid-late 2024, the "it's already dead" rumors continue

• Meta's 2023 financials disappoint, shareholders grumble but Zuckerberg hangs on as CEO
• Tesla's 2023 financials disappoint, shareholders tweet moon rocket memes, Elon hangs on as CEO
• Twitter gets slapped with fines and lawsuit judgments in the US and EU, Elon hangs on as CEO because nobody else wants to be the public face of Twitter
• Microsoft/Activision merger is blocked by regulators, Bobby Kotick hangs on as CEO because we live in the worst timeline

WDReinhart said:

I don't expect a lot of changes from the shitshow that was 2022...

Apple

• Apple AR glasses remain vaporware
• iPhones, iPads, Watches, Macs all get iterative updates that don't really excite anyone

Gaming Hardware

• Nvidia doesn't cut high-end GPU prices
• AMD fails capitalize on it to grow their marketshare
• Battlemage slips to mid-late 2024, the "it's already dead" rumors continue

Business

• Meta's 2023 financials disappoint, shareholders grumble but Zuckerberg hangs on as CEO
• Tesla's 2023 financials disappoint, shareholders tweet moon rocket memes, Elon hangs on as CEO
• Twitter gets slapped with fines and lawsuit judgments in the US and EU, Elon hangs on as CEO because nobody else wants to be the public face of Twitter
• Microsoft/Activision merger is blocked by regulators, Bobby Kotick hangs on as CEO because we live in the worst timeline

Click to expand...

• Meaningful details of a car project leak, but no actual product is announced.
• Apple makes some concrete progress to producing products anywhere but mainland China, pissing off the PRC in the process. 50%+ of iPhones still made in PR China by year's end despite efforts.

• Activision/Blizzard purchase by Microsoft falls through due to extreme regulatory headwinds by multiple governments and MS seeing that the road to maybe eventually being able to overcome all of the complaints would compromise the value they were seeking (also value of Activision stock and possibly Microsoft stock drop enough to make this a bad deal financially.)
• Consumer Pressure/depressed PC market/depressed add-in GPU market forces GPU makers to drop prices closer to but not reaching pre-pandemic levels and consumers remain unimpressed with sales still ho-hum despite price cuts/introduction of cheaper models.
• Battlemage is announced, much to everyone's surprise but will be a mobile-only part and only paired with Intel CPUs.

• Elon Musk is forced to step down from CEO position of Tesla (more likely) or SpaceX (slightly less likely) or both, but remains CEO of The Boring Company. He will retain board membership, however.
• Cyber Insurance will become extremely difficult for companies to acquire as prices skyrocket and compliance requirements for companies to qualify get much stricter--they'll have to meet or have a concrete plan to meet compliance regimes stricter than are typically current to qualify.
• At least one major event with a major cloud company involving a zero-day will lead to data loss/theft/compromise that isn't due to negligence on the part of the customer. It'll get some cute name like HeartBleed or ShellShock.
• I ain't touchin' Twitter's outlook.

• iPhone 15 released with iterative improvements in a titanium chassis - I buy one because I'm a sucker for titanium (and I've been holding out on my iPhone 8 waiting for something to push me over the upgrade activation energy hump for three years).
• AR glasses released, functioning essentially as HUD and camera input for iPhone 14/15 - I want, but can't justify the eye-watering cost or the eye-strain of wearing them.
• M3-based studio Macs released, also at eye-watering costs; they preform amazingly well - I continue to hold out with my 2017 iMac because I can't afford the upgrade.
• new watch based on new, lower powered chip is a significant improvement over the Series 8 - I hold off on this too
• Significant improvements to Siri, including much more local processing on device; Siri continues to lag behind Alexa in terms of functionality. Maybe I'll start to use Siri more, but I doubt it.
• Apple buys Tesla as Musk continues to flail (okay... that's more of a wish than a prediction).

• green hydrogen gets more traction; one or more EU countries (most likely Germany) make major investments in hydrogen-based energy storage
• cellular agriculture-based products continue to develop, but fail to get market traction
• Deepfakes used to target one or more political figures.
• Novel compounds targeting specific protein binding sites based on AlphaFold predictions will be patented. Their efficacy will be demonstrated using single cell RNA sequencing before moving into animal trials.
• mRNA-based vaccines for diseases other than COVID will be announced and begin testing
• the US will start building an on-shore, state of the art chip production facility, heavily subsidized by the federal government; the decade-long project gives Taiwan time to get its affairs in order.

• Covid makes a comeback; the combination of pathetic vaccination rates, complete relaxation of pandemic restrictions, and XBB.1.5's ability to evade antibodies targeting other variants allows it to continue to spread and evolve; added stress to the healthcare system continues to be described as a 'crisis' but people continue to not get vaccinated and not alter their behaviour.
• Supply chain constraints continue to plague economic recovery and limit growth
• Flooding, fire and other climate-driven disasters do record damage. Lack of political will results in business as usual WRT to GHG emission. Environmental refugees become a more significant problem for the developed world.
• As of January 2024, the war in the Ukraine is not resolved (really hope I'm wrong on this one).