AAPL CY22Q4 Results are in

The releases don't really talk about investment in Apple TV+ programming etc. I wonder if that's lumped into "services."

I can understand why consumers with less money would be less interested in buying the iPhone 14 non-pro as a weak upgrade but the iPad sales are strange. I was under the impression that the 10th gen iPads were a bad deal price-wise in comparison to previous generations (good devices just a large price bump), and the previously cheap Minis have gotten expensive. I guess a lot of older ones just came up for retirement.

Horatio said:

Mac and iPhone both down ~25% and ~10% respectively. iPad was a real bright spot being up 30%

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Any idea why iPad would be up this much when both Mac and iPhone are down this much? It doesn't seem like the new base and Mini models would make that large of a difference.

What's interesting is in the conference call remarks, they specifically called out that they expect Macs to be down significantly YoY in Q2 as well. I suppose it's better that a decline be predicted (and planned for) than unexpected, but I'm curious what dynamic is at work here, especially one that they seem to understand so fully.

cogwheel said:

Any idea why iPad would be up this much when both Mac and iPhone are down this much?

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just ruminating here: The iPad seemed to be the one class of Apple products that was both easily available and frequently on sale over the holiday season. Amazon in particular had some really choice deals across the entire lineup (even on the new oft-ridiculed 10th gen model). Maybe that was enough to give it a solid push.

If so, one would expect Q2 iPad numbers to come back down to earth.

$29 billion in net income, what a disaster.

Nevarre said:

The releases don't really talk about investment in Apple TV+ programming etc. I wonder if that's lumped into "services."

I can understand why consumers with less money would be less interested in buying the iPhone 14 non-pro as a weak upgrade but the iPad sales are strange. I was under the impression that the 10th gen iPads were a bad deal price-wise in comparison to previous generations (good devices just a large price bump), and the previously cheap Minis have gotten expensive. I guess a lot of older ones just came up for retirement.

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Most large size iPad’s got passed down to other family members or sold off, third-party. They’re not quite retired yet.

cateye said:

What's interesting is in the conference call remarks, they specifically called out that they expect Macs to be down significantly YoY in Q2 as well. I suppose it's better that a decline be predicted (and planned for) than unexpected, but I'm curious what dynamic is at work here, especially one that they seem to understand so fully.



just ruminating here: The iPad seemed to be the one class of Apple products that was both easily available and frequently on sale over the holiday season. Amazon in particular had some really choice deals across the entire lineup (even on the new oft-ridiculed 10th gen model). Maybe that was enough to give it a solid push.

If so, one would expect Q2 iPad numbers to come back down to earth.

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Because they were made and available at all price points which can’t be said of the Mac desktop line of computers Apple is still sucking in that area many people with 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 27 inch iMac‘s want something other than a 24 inch iMac computer, you can’t buy what isn’t made, the same scenario applies to the Mac Pro Apple Silicon? Where are the Apple Silicon versions? The Leader/Max Headroom Mac is unacceptable.

It seems like the public still can't get enough of iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watch and services. Everything else is either not a hit or a bust.

Horatio said:

Apple misses Q1 earnings expectations as iPhone sales fall short (yahoo.com)
Apple reports first quarter results - Apple

I've been writing these quarterly threads for a long time, and I literally can't remember the last time Apple missed expectations. Revenue dropped by 5%, Net income dropped by ~10%. Mac and iPhone both down ~25% and ~10% respectively. iPad was a real bright spot being up 30%, but overall, this looks like a rough quarter. In the press release, touted growth in services which were up, but not that much ~5%.

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I'll speculate it was shortages of key components that held back Mac and iPhone sales. They're still in high demand and selling at profitable prices. I guess they weren't hit on the iPads this quarter. Possibly just luck of the draw. Or possibly supply chain managers for the Macs and phones need to learn how it's done from the iPad supply team.

It's interesting to see this as I am personally de-Apple-fying my house.

Nevarre said:

I can understand why consumers with less money would be less interested in buying the iPhone 14 non-pro as a weak upgrade

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I think this is really becoming a thing all-over. I have an S20 5G. I finished paying on it last August or so. I got to play hands-on with an S23 Ultra. Not really anything to write home about, imo. I mean, its 3 generations newer and not compelling enough to upgrade. I mean, sure that 200MP camera is pretty nice...but not earth shatteringly huge enough to get new phone.

I suspect this is the case more and more with all smartphone makers. The "innovations" are just a lot more incremental these days.

Yes... but... if you find any consumer group who upgrades to every single model, it's a subset of iPhone users. (Either that or they use a 5 year old phone like a badge of honor.)

If you had an iPhone 13 and didn't want the Pro, the 14's differences are slight-- one extra GPU core, but the CPU is the same. Same screen, storage, memory etc. There's a minor enhancement for the camera adding a sports mode and they added the satellite emergency system that will cost some unspecified amount to use after the initial trial. There was one significantly problematic downgrade in that they only support eSIM now, not both eSIM and physical. That's about it. Also it cost more.

The differences between the S22 and S23 series still mean an underwhelming upgrade, I can at least point to a few meaningful differences and no downgrades (faster GPU and CPU by a significant margin, brighter screen, better Gorilla Glass etc.) Also the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 sucked so getting something else is helpful.

Nevarre said:

The differences between the S22 and S23 series still mean an underwhelming upgrade, I can at least point to a few meaningful differences and no downgrades (faster GPU and CPU by a significant margin, brighter screen, better Gorilla Glass etc.) Also the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 sucked so getting something else is helpful.

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Yeah...but going from S20+ to S23 Ultra should have 'knocked my socks off" and it was more of "meh". You are right that iphone users often upgrade every year (which blows my mind). I mean both have gotten to the point where the differences are just not that great. I mean in the past you have big jumps in resolution, screen size, battery life, camera quality, OS ability,, etc....and now...more of that...but the jumps are relatively much more minor. I mean this happened with computers too. How much better is a computer today from one from say 2015?

The same thing is happening with smartphones as with PCs...plateaus are being reached. Computers hit it hard and smartphones are getting there. I remember arguing about if plateaus were being reached and here it is 10 years later and just not that much has changed.

Heck...here we are and it is 2023 and FINALLY the US broke 100Mbs broadband average speed. https://www.highspeedinternet.com/resources/state-of-the-internet

That was "supposed" to happen 3 years ago. And heck, for most people even 100mbs is reaching overkill.