Will there ever be one dominant streaming service?

wco81

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Netflix disappointed Wall Street with its latest quarterly report so shares fell 14%. However, it's been shooting up for several years, reaching the status as one of the FANG or FAANG stocks, the giants of the NASDAQ and S&P.

Even thought they fell short of projected new subscribers, they now have 130 million subscribers around the world and account for 8% of all TV viewing. They will spend $8 billion this year on content development, a number that has been steadily going up.

Netflix skeptics point out that they borrow to fund that development but it seems like they have to show subscriber growth, not big profits or cash flow numbers.

Amazon Prime is another big player, especially to the extent that it drives subscriptions of Amazon Prime. While there have some highly acclaimed shows and they are spending a lot on some content derived from Lord of the Rings, they haven't had as many hits or shows which have become cultural touchstones like Game of Thrones.

There are smaller players like Hulu and Vudu but competition is expected to heat up with Disney and Apple expected to offer original streaming content. One has a huge library of content while the other has very deep pockets.

There doesn't seem to be a huge barrier to entry, to establish a national or global streaming service. Disney and Apple would be starting from zero infrastructure and zero content and infrastructure.

Of course with more players bidding for a finite amount of content, capital or operating costs may become a barrier. For instance, maybe a startup would have a much more difficult time entering this streaming market versus say 5-10 years ago.

Unless prices increase dramatically, maybe there will always be say half a dozen players? Or could it be that most people sign up for the one with the most shows they want to watch and really don't have time for more than one service, despite the cost.

Or would some people subscribe to a service with fewer shows but they're willing to do it for just a couple of shows that their main streaming service doesn't have? Could there be content which is compelling enough for people to subscribe to wherever that content is streamed? There are already bidding wars but they're not for proven shows. What if with enough streaming services, content creators sign limited-duration contract, like pro athletes, so that they could have competing services bid up the rights every few years?
 
One of the takes I read on the Disney Fox purchase was that that would place 2/3 of Hulu in Disney's Control. Disney is of course looking to roll their own, but why would they with hulu? The other owner is Comcast which of course is the other bidder for Fox. And the take was that it's starting to look like it will shake out much as broadcast networks did with 3 "networks" and then hangers on.

So Netflix, Amazon and Disney/Hulu. CBS is a niche player (unless they get bought/merged with Netflix/Amazon). Comcast is the odd man out, but someone will want their content.
 

wrylachlan

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The difference between streaming and say cable is that on a computer it’s possible to create an over-the-top bundling service. That radically lowers the barrier to entry for a) bundle services and b) small channels. So I think that what we’re going to end up with is likely a much more diverse ecosystem than what came before. I could see 5-10 major original content houses with bundled (in-house content + licensed content) offerings and then a slew of smaller services that exist for the edge case person that wants their specific content a la carte but their main revenue stream is licensing to the big bundlers.

It would look a lot like the way Brit Box has a stand-alone service but some of its content is available on Netflix, Hulu and Amazon and then Amazon let’s you subscribe directly in the app. That sort of flexibility and diversity seems like the likely end state to me.
 

Jehos

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There is, Netflix.

All the competition is happening in the content creation space, with the idea that better exclusive content is how you steal streamers from Netflix.

Silly though, because streaming isn't a zero-sum game like the execs seem to think it is. I can have a Netflix subscription AND and Amazon subscription AND an HBO subscription AND a Disney subscription and it'll *still* be cheaper than cable.
 

wco81

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There is, Netflix.

All the competition is happening in the content creation space, with the idea that better exclusive content is how you steal streamers from Netflix.

Silly though, because streaming isn't a zero-sum game like the execs seem to think it is. I can have a Netflix subscription AND and Amazon subscription AND an HBO subscription AND a Disney subscription and it'll *still* be cheaper than cable.

But you only have a finite number of hours to watch.

I think cord cutting is slow enough that it hasn’t hurt cable companies like Comcast yet. Plus they’ll just increase your Internet-only bill and enforce their caps. And they’ve been acquiring content on their own.

The Live TV streamers have been increasing their prices in the last couple of weeks.

But now it’s so easy too switch because no streamer has offered contracts and quitting one service and signing up with another is a matter of a few clicks. No hassles with returning equipment and picking up different equipment, no waiting for the cable installer.

It is somewhat surprising there hasn’t been more churn. Maybe once these services start charging more than $20 a month and the live TV streamers charge more than $50, people will switch back and forth for introductory deals.
 

Jehos

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But you only have a finite number of hours to watch.
So what? That just means Netflix's data bill is lower. The only cap that matters is whether the sum of all my service subscriptions exceeds the cost of cable or satellite. If it does, then my TV-watching might come from cable or satellite. If it doesn't, it'll come from streaming services.
 
There is, Netflix.

All the competition is happening in the content creation space, with the idea that better exclusive content is how you steal streamers from Netflix.

Silly though, because streaming isn't a zero-sum game like the execs seem to think it is. I can have a Netflix subscription AND and Amazon subscription AND an HBO subscription AND a Disney subscription and it'll *still* be cheaper than cable.

Ignoring HBO, because you'd be paying for that anyway and ignoring Disney, because we don't have pricing yet and it's channels are split across cable tiers, just how much are you paying for cable? Last time I had cable I was paying $10 a month for extended basic with on demand and $10 a month for the cable box. So $20. That's in a bundled deal with the internet and Includes CBS which would be a separate fee for cable cutters.

I didn't cut cable, because Amazon and Netflix were cheaper, I cut it because I was paying for Netflix anyway and I wasn't watching any of it. I get Amazon, because I have prime anyway and I bought CBS, because my wife and I are NCIS junkies, but need to time shift. (And I'm a Trekkie, but I don't have time for that right now.)
 

Jehos

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Ignoring HBO, because you'd be paying for that anyway and ignoring Disney, because we don't have pricing yet and it's channels are split across cable tiers, just how much are you paying for cable? Last time I had cable I was paying $10 a month for extended basic with on demand and $10 a month for the cable box. So $20. That's in a bundled deal with the internet and Includes CBS which would be a separate fee for cable cutters.
You can't just ignore HBO--before they sold it as a naked streaming service, I was having to pay per-season for Game of Thrones on iTunes to watch it in a timely fashion (it was on iTunes the day after the episode aired), so there was a cost there regardless.

It has been close to a decade, but I'm pretty sure I was paying something like $120/mo for a full DirecTV package with movie channels before I cut the cord. I don't really bother doing apples-to-apples comparisons, because my cord-cutting decision was all based around two questions:

1. Can I talk about the shows I care about with other people who are watching that show?
2. Is my TV-watching time filled with stuff I want to watch?

#2 is why I had the full package with DirecTV--sometimes I'd flip through movie channels, other times I'd just watch stuff on random channels. It was the thing that had the biggest change in terms of what I was actually watching--instead of seeing what's on across 120 channels when I'm bored, I'm now digging through the massive catalog on Netflix for something that looks interesting to watch. It's basically channel-surfing, but subtly different.

#1 is why people who are really into sports can't cancel cable or satellite (and why we have it at the house now--my wife is a yuge hockey fan).
 
Well, for streaming, I think we are in the "let 1,000 flowers bloom" period. And, it always looks like it will never end. Yet, end it does.

It may be possible now for some indie shop to create the equivalent of "The Blair Witch Project" as a series and bypass everyone and sell it from their own web site and maybe get bought out later.

But, I suspect that human tolerance for that sort of thing will be low, so it will be rare. Eventually, we will want to pay one bill or at most three and have done with it. We may even decide that we want some sort of "curation" or at least predict the general sort of content we get or know how to navigate/subset to it. I have grandkids and they don't need to see anything resembling softcore porn or even the levels of violence on standard network shows.

Myself, I am doing streaming on the cheap with Prime because "I have it anyway". And, I am so damn cheap and there is so much content, I see no reason to pay for extras. There is this oddball sci-fi horror series called "Humans" that I have watched two seasons of on Prime. Season three is available right now for maybe 3 bucks an episode. I am not even mildly tempted. If I wait a year, it will be there, for free, on Prime, because that's how the first two seasons rolled. It's how I found it in the first place.

OTOH, I subscribe to Sling so I can get various College Bowl games in December and my wife can get most of the channels we used to get from extended basic, but now get (cheaper) on Sling.

So far, we have resisted all temptation to go for more and I doubt if we do. Cable will probably not get cut entirely here because my wife and I are old enough that we still consume the nightly news and because our HOA has (so far) negotiated a very low price for it. We get enough of the NFL that way as well (plus ESPN on Sling).
 
I don't know what you'd think such a "new Blair Witch" project would be on it's own site. That kind of thing would already be getting pushed to Youtube.

I've looked a SLING. I don't see how it's cheaper than extended basic in any of the packages I've ever purchased. I think the Kids add on might be a good deal maybe.

How far away from an Urban area are you? I grew up with a TV Antenna on my roof, so I don't get why people ever pay for something where a substantial fraction of the service is something you should get for free.
 

HappyBunny

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There is, Netflix.

All the competition is happening in the content creation space, with the idea that better exclusive content is how you steal streamers from Netflix.

Silly though, because streaming isn't a zero-sum game like the execs seem to think it is. I can have a Netflix subscription AND and Amazon subscription AND an HBO subscription AND a Disney subscription and it'll *still* be cheaper than cable.

"Stealing" viewers from Netflix seems like a secondary concern. Other streaming services just want you to bother subscribing to their service in the first place. Content producers want what they think is a reasonable payout for their content, which they've largely decided they won't get from Netflix (at least at some time horizon).

This is why I think it's going to be really hard to consolidate the streaming market, and also why I think ultimately people will end up paying more to get all the content they want (maybe not more than cable, but definitely more than the early days of streaming). The current pricing structure provides too much disincentive for content owners to all consolidate under one low monthly subscription.
 

LordDaMan

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I don't know what you'd think such a "new Blair Witch" project would be on it's own site. That kind of thing would already be getting pushed to Youtube.

I've looked a SLING. I don't see how it's cheaper than extended basic in any of the packages I've ever purchased. I think the Kids add on might be a good deal maybe.

How far away from an Urban area are you? I grew up with a TV Antenna on my roof, so I don't get why people ever pay for something where a substantial fraction of the service is something you should get for free.

Digital TV over teh air uses the old UHF frequencies. UHF always had a much shorter range then VHF as far as reception went. Also the way digital works is you either get the channel or not. There's no half asses fuzzy picture like before


That beings said I have an HDHomerun device on my network hooked up to an antennae and get 51 stations. Not counting duplicates and stations that only sometimes come in I get a little over 40 unique stations on any given day. I don't see a need to pay for cable here. YMMV
 
Well, it also depends on where you live. We were in the Chicago suburbs. It was easy, buy rooftop antenna, mount on roof, sight sears tower, point antenna at sears tower, done.
Because the other channels were on Hancock or standard oil, so all right there.

Most people today try to get away with an omni-directional small antenna or in some cases live between metros and deal with the interference.

I personally don't watch much TV anymore. It's mostly kids programming and they haven't complained about the current access.

It will be interesting to see if Disney does just roll their service into Hulu or still goes their own way, because Star Wars+Disney Movies is a fairly powerful draw for the entire family. We're not super into MCU...yet.
 
I don't know what you'd think such a "new Blair Witch" project would be on it's own site. That kind of thing would already be getting pushed to Youtube.

Well, sure. That's one model. Very attractive to the wholly unknown (which is what I did posit, so good argument there).

But, people want to be paid. It would take something extraordinary to make what I suggested work, but nothing whatever stops anyone from trying.

If such a thing happened, it would perhaps be closely analogous to whatever happens in independent films today. They are much harder (and more expensive) to produce. And then they require distribution.

All the while theater attendance is going down. Yet, they happen.

There does seem to me to be just barely room for a few folks -- with a track record and the ability to garner attention -- to make such a thing work.

United Artists, for instance, started out because some big stars decided they wanted more control over their pictures. So, maybe some momentarily important star manages to get some low budget but prestigious thing done this way. The point is, there are several imaginable roads to this particular Rome.

Netflix is not MGM or Warner in the '30s. They are perpetually on the edge of something upsetting their applecart.

All that said, I think there will be a few dominant streamers. People develop habits if nothing else. But I don't think we are going to see a Microsoft-style monopoly because I don't think Netflix (or any other such entity) will be able to reliably corral all the talent.

Indeed, I suggest that the dominant issues eventually will be entirely non-technical. So, I doubt of the big winners turn out to be the "tech" companies we discuss in here unless they develop talents far outside of their normal wheelhouse.
 
Well, but publishing something popular to youtube would result in getting paid. That's the advertising model. That's how vloggers work and why youtube is so popular.

Sure, but if you were (say) Beyonce and somehow found the right film vehicle, you might do better keeping all of a Pay Per View stream for yourself.

The fact that You Tube works does not mean it is the only model that could work or, for that matter, has ever worked.

In the pre-streaming era, bands mostly sold some sort of album/video of their live tours when they thought they could. They did not universally or even mostly sell them to the networks and (in effect) get paid off of the advertising dollar.

We have been through this before; have done so in one similar way or other for the entire 20th century, in fact. Both models have always been available and have been available to individual "acts".

I am again at pains to point out that my model will not be common. Joe Unknown should do You Tube or, possibly, self-publish in Amazon or something.

What I am suggesting is that there will always be "talent" that can operate outside of the constraints of an Amazon, Netflix, or Apple. And these will break any incipient monopoly if it gets too greedy.
 
Well, let's not bring Bey into this. Pop royalty has different rules. That's why she already has her own streaming service

No, it is apropos to the point I am making. United Artists was not founded by journeymen actors. It was founded by the leading actors (and one director) of the day.

And these will always have the (mostly latent but occasionally realized) power to break up the cozy relationships between content "providers" because in the end, content providers merely "produce" but are not actually "the talent".

The "Bey" types of the world will be few in number, but they can break up things pretty good. Sort of like Lebron right now in basketball. The Beatles ultimately founded their own record label. On it goes. It isn't always just about one or five disruptors tht keep the goodies to themselves. Sometimes, they actually break it up well enough to become the powers themselves or to at least realign the powers that be.

It's a bit of a black swan event, but it does happen with enough regularity to matter.
 

Pont

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The trouble with Netflix is discover-ability on the service. The organization of the catalog is atrocious. I have no easy answers, but there needs to be a better way of finding what you want. Also they need to bring back a ratings system. Maybe source it out from IMDB's database.
The discoverability on Netflix is a bazillion times better than Cable/Broadcast, though.
 

Pont

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You can't just ignore HBO--before they sold it as a naked streaming service, I was having to pay per-season for Game of Thrones on iTunes to watch it in a timely fashion (it was on iTunes the day after the episode aired), so there was a cost there regardless.
In this context, you can ignore HBO easily. It's not competition to Netflix/Amazon/Hulu, because it's still what HBO has always been -- a premium add-on with exclusive content and some movies.

Do you know *anyone* who has HBO Now, no cable, and no other streaming service?

HBO is not competition for the general streaming services. They don't offer or plan to offer the breadth of content.
 

wco81

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You can't just ignore HBO--before they sold it as a naked streaming service, I was having to pay per-season for Game of Thrones on iTunes to watch it in a timely fashion (it was on iTunes the day after the episode aired), so there was a cost there regardless.
In this context, you can ignore HBO easily. It's not competition to Netflix/Amazon/Hulu, because it's still what HBO has always been -- a premium add-on with exclusive content and some movies.

Do you know *anyone* who has HBO Now, no cable, and no other streaming service?

HBO is not competition for the general streaming services. They don't offer or plan to offer the breadth of content.


You better read up on the town hall that HBO had with their new AT&T overlord as soon as the merger was complete. The guy wants HBO to be airing shows every day of the week, not just Sundays.

And he wants content for phones, not just for TVs.
 

Pont

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Netflix has the monopoly now,
Nowhere near. They exert zero monopolistic pressure on anyone. The only exclusives they have are things they produced themselves. Use of Netflix doesn't preclude using other services also. In fact, I'd bet that your average Netflix user is far more likely than average to also be a subscriber to some other service like Hulu or Amazon Prime.
 

Echohead2

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The funny thing is that streaming kind of sucks in many ways.

I signed up for the Netflix disc-by-mail again because the good movies just aren't on streaming. You can do VOD...but you do 1-2 of those a month and it covers the disk by mail costs.

And you get new movies pretty quickly. and all of them. And I can even get things like Game of Thrones without having the HBO service. So I save that cost...which alone pays for the netflix disc-by-mail service.

and blurays so better image quality, often extras, better controls, and more.
 

wco81

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Definitely better image quality but hey most people are listening to lossy compression with music or other audio content these days.

Meanwhile there aren’t that many places to but Blu Rays.

With the popularity of streaming, you’re getting original shows only available through streaming.

Actually Netflix does put out discs of some of its exclusive shows. But as DVDs while they offer up to 4K HDR now.

Amazon just released a Jack Ryan series and it’s getting great reviews for image and sound quality — Dolby Vision HDR and Dolby Atmos sound.

But will they ever put out UHD Blu Rays of this show? Unlikely even though they sell discs.
 

Pont

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But will they ever put out UHD Blu Rays of this show? Unlikely even though they sell discs.
I'll take that bet. They'll put out a BluRay box set for Christmas.

Amazon won't turn down free money. The video service is doing well enough that they don't have to sacrifice an opportunity like selling their exclusive shows on BluRay. Even people with the service will buy the BluRay, because some people are just in the habit of collecting. Meanwhile, they'll advertise the service on the BluRay.

Personally, I gave up on BluRays when I tried to watch one from RedBox and it took longer to start up than it would have taken me to locate it and pirate it. I'll gladly pay for quality and convenience, but it rubs me the wrong way to pay for inconvenience.
 

Echohead2

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Definitely better image quality but hey most people are listening to lossy compression with music or other audio content these days.

Meanwhile there aren’t that many places to but Blu Rays.

With the popularity of streaming, you’re getting original shows only available through streaming.

Actually Netflix does put out discs of some of its exclusive shows. But as DVDs while they offer up to 4K HDR now.

Amazon just released a Jack Ryan series and it’s getting great reviews for image and sound quality — Dolby Vision HDR and Dolby Atmos sound.

But will they ever put out UHD Blu Rays of this show? Unlikely even though they sell discs.

sure...but on the flip side, none of those streaming services seem to have a good selection of recent movies...particular "blockbuster" movies. So if you want those it is buy Blu-ray/DVD, VOD, redbox, or netflix by mail.