100TB SSDs next year...yes please

jarablue

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Ardax

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Yeah, this is mostly for cloud storage stuff. It'll also be useful for people who run NASes at home as well, possibly. More IOPS and MB/s is always a good thing. The failure modes kind of suck though compared to HDDs, so that'll be an issue. But eliminating vibration as an issue from racks full of HDDs will also be very welcome.

If we're lucky these will also less power than HDDs, bringing a lot of added benefits on that front as well.

They should also weigh a whole lot less, which can make new datacenters a lot less expensive to construct.

So there's a lot of potential environmental gains from big ass SSDs at scale.
 
As much as I enjoy seeing Moore's Law rebirthed in the storage arena, what does it really mean outside the cloud? Or is that the point?
DCs in earthquake prone areas would benefit from them not being susceptible to random rattles of the Earth moving. I also see it as power-saving and smaller SANs to run VMs and storage faster. But yeah, mostly cloud. Massive companies (Fort 100s) could save lots of space and energy in their DCs. However, I can't imagine they will be reasonably priced for years and years.
 

w00key

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All I'm saying is I for one and glad we will be getting away from the s***** paltry 1 to 4 TB nvme Drives.
430 layers / 290 layers = 48% increase. Unless vendors start stacking a lot of chips on a stick we'll maybe get 6TB models and not much more on an M.2 SSD.
 

cogwheel

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430 layers / 290 layers = 48% increase. Unless vendors start stacking a lot of chips on a stick we'll maybe get 6TB models and not much more on an M.2 SSD.
This.

@jarablue, you need to keep in mind that we can already get real 30TB SSDs, they're just enterprise drives, cost a lot (the 30.72TB Samsung PM1643a costs over $5K), and are in the 2.5" form factor. A real 100TB SSD is going to likewise be an enterprise SSD with a very high cost for years before you see anything approaching that size in consumer drives. It's taken us 10 years to go from 1TB to 8TB for consumer SSDs, so I expect 100TB SSDs, if they ever appear (single device storage demand by consumers just isn't growing very fast), to take around another ten years.
 
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jarablue

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Then let me ask why are large ssds drive sizes so expensive? Let make them not expensive. There are home users that want large drive sizes.

I am not sure why this isn't a thing already. For some reason 4tb is the breaking point here when they fully have the tech to increase it.

Who made 4tb the point where shit starts getting ridiculous in $?
 

teubbist

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Market demand mostly. Vanishingly few users need more than 1-2TB of local storage, everything else is stored in the cloud or streamed. With how volatile flash pricing can be mass producing 8+ TB drives that will have an insanely long tail requires much larger margins to mitigate/de-risk.

The demand for high capacity flash in the enterprise/hyperscaler/etc. markets is in a different form factor and specification to consumer drives, so we don't get the same side benefits like we do with hard drives.

It's shit, and annoys me as well. I do expect the newer generation of flash will bring 8TB capacities closer to more reasonable prices, but I'm not hopeful for anything beyond that.
 

Scandinavian Film

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Market demand mostly. Vanishingly few users need more than 1-2TB of local storage, everything else is stored in the cloud or streamed. With how volatile flash pricing can be mass producing 8+ TB drives that will have an insanely long tail requires much larger margins to mitigate/de-risk.

The demand for high capacity flash in the enterprise/hyperscaler/etc. markets is in a different form factor and specification to consumer drives, so we don't get the same side benefits like we do with hard drives.

It's shit, and annoys me as well. I do expect the newer generation of flash will bring 8TB capacities closer to more reasonable prices, but I'm not hopeful for anything beyond that.
Making demand even worse is that, of the people who do want 8 TB of local storage, very few of them need that 8 TB to be flash. One big consumer use case for that much storage is to store a lot of media files (movie rips of their home collections, home photo/video collection, etc.), which is served just as well by an HDD as it is an SSD. Even if 8 TB SSDs were only twice the price of 4 TB SSDs, that would still make them about $400 each vs $100 or so for an 8 TB HDD. And given that you really want to have at least one backup for files like this, you're looking at ~$200 vs ~$800 for products that essentially perform the same for this task, so most people choose HDDs at 8 TB and above.

The effect of this is that the remaining few who really do need an 8 TB SSD really need it, and will therefore shell out for the ~$800 that 8 TB SSDs are actually going for at the moment. Making this segment even smaller is that it's pretty easy to get 8 TB of flash storage by...buying two 4 TB drives, so the market for 8 TB drives is specifically people who need 8 TB of flash and only have one m.2 slot or 2.5" drive bay free.
 

cogwheel

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Then let me ask why are large ssds drive sizes so expensive? Let make them not expensive. There are home users that want large drive sizes.

I am not sure why this isn't a thing already. For some reason 4tb is the breaking point here when they fully have the tech to increase it.

Who made 4tb the point where shit starts getting ridiculous in $?
Because, unlike with HDDs, each extra byte of capacity in a SSD costs almost as much as the byte before it to manufacture. HDDs have most of their cost in the motors, read/write heads, housing, etc, which scale with capacity either not at all or very weakly. Capacity comes from more and higher density platters, which are a small fraction of the cost of the drive. In contrast, a SSD has most of its cost in the flash itself, with the rest of the drive being a controller and a PCB, both of which are cheap compared to the flash.

Also, as @teubbist discussed and I briefly touched on in my earlier post, consumer demand just isn't there. Just because you're a data hoarder doesn't mean that there's a significant percentage of consumers who are, and all signs point to data hoarders being a tiny, tiny minority of consumers.

Enterprise does have high demands on capacity, but they also demand different drives from consumer drives, like SAS or EDSFF drives instead of m.2 drives, along with different performance, endurance, testing, and support requirements. This means that the big enterprise drives can cost more per capacity than consumer drives as the default condition of the market (enterprise users can easily pay a lot more because they can turn around and make more money with the better attributes of the drive, unlike consumers) and the scaling of enterprise drives don't help consumer drives scale (different form factors, architectures, and support regimes).
 

AndrewZ

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What is the use of a 100TB SSD disk if it is unable to reliably retain its data? Yesss, the SSDs are nice when they work, and they are indeed very fast. It is a joy until the day you see your life's work .... down the drain :cautious:
Well, if you put a bunch in parallel, at least some of them will be working. This is kinda how large data centers work. There's safety in numbers.
 
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